TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 2?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$65,032
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$62,915

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $65,032 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 187 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x116d…fbf1backed No77c5,376$4,119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,257.3317859%105 W · 73 L+20.1wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+26.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x6868…5198backed Yes8c4,843$411 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$411.321,40127.3%383 W · 1,018 L+69.5wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+18.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x85bd…7f75backed Yes37c2,682$990 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99025362.8%159 W · 94 L+16.0wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+5.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x26b1…cc81backed Yes1c2,411$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.6923429.1%68 W · 166 L+3.2wins+0.01per pick28cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes4c1,811$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.211,33120.8%277 W · 1,054 L+33.9wins+0.03per pick18cpaid-19%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xecc2…3eb6backed Yes15c1,558$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237.771741.2%7 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-23.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked Yes3c1,053$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.182,21420.7%458 W · 1,756 L-60.8wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcc09…88edbacked Yes22c973.32$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.9956627.7%157 W · 409 L+17.8wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x57ee…8112backed Yes8c914.59$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.551,72718%311 W · 1,416 L+74.3wins+0.04per pick14cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa895…faacbacked No40c862.22$345 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$517.0620338.4%78 W · 125 L+30.4wins+0.15per pick23cpaid+177%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0xb9e9…f1ccbacked Yes39c758.34$297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29713959%82 W · 57 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick57cpaid-2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f5a…f31dbacked Yes39c749.84$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290.671376.9%10 W · 3 L+2.0wins+0.15per pick62cpaid+8.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No70c710.28$499 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211.323,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No61c684.6$420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$264.525,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No72c672.97$482 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.91,52552.6%802 W · 723 L+2.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No60c601.36$363 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$238.53,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes26c591.17$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.612,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xc9d8…cea4backed Yes58c523.75$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302.433234.4%11 W · 21 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes27c514.69$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.425,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6639…7202backed Yes44c499.99$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.4712735.4%45 W · 82 L+0.4wins0.00per pick35cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2845…b637backed Yes9c484.23$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.9985330.7%262 W · 591 L+28.2wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+11.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1838…29b4backed Yes3c453.06$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.5996313.7%132 W · 831 L+33.9wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+35.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No69c435$302 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.095,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4f74…8774backed Yes29c429.39$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.2321236.8%78 W · 134 L+14.2wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+15.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No50c426.44$214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.526,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed No40c399.26$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$240.8184124%202 W · 639 L-35.9wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-42.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4829…97ebbacked No77c390.68$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.6839951.1%204 W · 195 L+14.0wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+14.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1775…85b0backed Yes13c317.06$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.9836648.4%177 W · 189 L+25.4wins+0.07per pick41cpaid-3.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x2c57…372dbacked Yes23c310.03$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.491,53124.2%371 W · 1,160 L+15.4wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-10%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe8f2…96d7backed Yes76c308.89$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.6824466.8%163 W · 81 L+20.2wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+14.6%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xf56c…ad84backed Yes4c300$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125073.4%17 W · 490 L-4.9wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-28.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7131…b3a6backed No80c292$233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.91163.6%7 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-10.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes18c282.83$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.4834918.9%66 W · 283 L+18.7wins+0.05per pick14cpaid+40.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3311…d659backed Yes52c268.01$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.8519551.8%101 W · 94 L-8.7wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-12%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd2ae…f36bbacked Yes44c252.27$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.2122746.7%106 W · 121 L-0.8wins0.00per pick47cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeadb…898ebacked Yes35c250.69$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.852133.3%7 W · 14 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-33.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0db3…5704backed Yes32c236.33$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.3819022.1%42 W · 148 L-6.7wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-11.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6ebb…405abacked Yes32c235.74$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.4279040.9%323 W · 467 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No71c234.44$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.981,92853.5%1,032 W · 896 L+39.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd8d…038bbacked No45c211.12$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.3329469.7%205 W · 89 L+26.7wins+0.09per pick61cpaid+16.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x567f…94b9backed Yes22c209.13$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.6148919.2%94 W · 395 L-38.7wins-0.08per pick27cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xcd15…b352backed Yes11c204.83$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.751,85718.7%347 W · 1,510 L+77.0wins+0.04per pick15cpaid+25.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd9b5…9db1backed No74c204.3$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.1388650.2%445 W · 441 L-14.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-11.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x170c…7fe3backed Yes8c199.99$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16966.7%6 W · 3 L+2.4wins+0.27per pick40cpaid+295%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes36c199.75$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.1471031.5%224 W · 486 L+3.2wins0.00per pick31cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda0a…6830backed No23c191.82$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.53475%3 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.37per pick38cpaid+135%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes26c182.89$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.2991444.7%409 W · 505 L+16.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No79c179$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.484,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xaf93…5d2abacked No79c178.19$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.548962.9%56 W · 33 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick66cpaid-7.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb7d7…1a16backed Yes57c163.17$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.733759.5%22 W · 15 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes21c160$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.1693034%316 W · 614 L+53.0wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No30c159.8$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.5512,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e5c…d892backed Yes11c156.37$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.1657044.9%256 W · 314 L+36.5wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+13%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No71c155.92$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.364,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No59c150$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$613,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0457…af98backed Yes42c135.56$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.31425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.27per pick52cpaid-62.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc118…18e2backed No42c134.75$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.915346.4%71 W · 82 L+26.2wins+0.17per pick29cpaid+112.3%equal weight66+0.15 edge/pick
0x6087…e57abacked Yes37c134.47$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.5450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-35.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed No48c133.21$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.431,55433.1%515 W · 1,039 L-66.6wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-27.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x21aa…fea9backed Yes38c130.66$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.5475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick62cpaid+8.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec86…60e4backed Yes27c126.64$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.051,16338.2%444 W · 719 L+19.4wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3c11…33c9backed No72c126.17$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.9589661.7%553 W · 343 L+15.2wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb1d…de1cbacked Yes60c121.97$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.1114645.2%66 W · 80 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-15.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc9cb…015fbacked Yes30c120$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.520027.5%55 W · 145 L+10.7wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+30.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4818…e5debacked Yes15c116.95$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.2631219.9%62 W · 250 L-40.4wins-0.13per pick33cpaid-59.1%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes15c112.87$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.32,06556.3%1,163 W · 902 L+56.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa817…95d7backed Yes29c112$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.2916934.9%59 W · 110 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-11.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8bb0…c328backed No62c111.6$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.754447.7%21 W · 23 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No56c111.16$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.041,42852.1%744 W · 684 L-21.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed No74c110.74$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.343,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b40…ced4backed No57c100.82$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.795852.5%503 W · 455 L+103.2wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+9.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x86d8…52d5backed Yes41c100.32$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.188229.3%24 W · 58 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick25cpaid-5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes14c100$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.237,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes26c99.99$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261,32232.2%426 W · 896 L-43.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x511f…0b0fbacked Yes41c99.9$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.9930%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x463d…abb2backed No49c99.21$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.194139%16 W · 25 L-7.3wins-0.18per pick57cpaid-28.8%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No65c98.66$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.7610,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6468…a30bbacked Yes41c98.08$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.891145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick40cpaid-2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes22c97.01$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.1517,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe712…9a10backed No60c95.5$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.5286847.7%414 W · 454 L+40.7wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe3a0…b7a2backed No39c92.41$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.964546.7%21 W · 24 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed Yes22c92.02$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.472,09958.3%1,224 W · 875 L+83.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdc55…522bbacked Yes24c92$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.8317831.5%56 W · 122 L+7.4wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+9.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdf2a…e862backed No45c91$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.36861.8%42 W · 26 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick64cpaid-4.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x04a9…5165backed Yes45c88.81$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402339.1%9 W · 14 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7d81…259bbacked Yes67c86.05$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.829756.7%55 W · 42 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b8e…aa69backed Yes48c84.2$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4030849%151 W · 157 L-8.3wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No69c82.94$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.672,62654%1,418 W · 1,208 L-56.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4885…2236backed Yes54c80.14$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.657047.1%33 W · 37 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-8.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8444…1cf9backed Yes43c80$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.428737.6%108 W · 179 L-13.6wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-15.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4875…149bbacked Yes32c80$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.764955.1%27 W · 22 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc120…a7e3backed No58c80$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.71,29954.1%703 W · 596 L+24.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb227…ef1ebacked Yes33c79.37$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.442470.8%17 W · 7 L+2.6wins+0.11per pick60cpaid+9.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x86da…1cf6backed Yes36c78.83$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.9915345.8%70 W · 83 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-6.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e5e…40fbbacked Yes73c78.54$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.5533561.5%206 W · 129 L-22.2wins-0.07per pick68cpaid-13.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed Yes48c76.54$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.462,09357.1%1,196 W · 897 L+71.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd4a0…b85dbacked Yes69c75.9$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-17%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed No40c73$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.692,05057.4%1,177 W · 873 L+72.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9848…f408backed Yes17c70.84$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.213132.3%10 W · 21 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick34cpaid+4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2754…1668backed Yes71c68.2$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.311,01860.2%613 W · 405 L+13.5wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.