TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on July 26?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$19,227
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$22,014

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,227 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 115 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4f11…53b0backed Yes78c1,641$1,277 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$364.735349.1%26 W · 27 L+3.4wins+0.06per pick43cpaid-16.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd23f…94a1backed No37c919.66$339 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$338.852,61759.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L-41.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9807…5668backed No34c786$269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$269.169617.7%17 W · 79 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick15cpaid-5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes28c780.49$218 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$562.838,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes38c648.38$246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$402.7910,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked No10c561.74$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.32,21420.7%458 W · 1,756 L-60.8wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No25c546.86$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.044,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc5f5…5d54backed No2c500$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1028324.7%70 W · 213 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-22.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No23c421.08$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.436,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked No27c399.99$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1102,26718%407 W · 1,860 L-9.5wins0.00per pick18cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No45c385.09$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.953,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3f0b…d571backed No61c378.37$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.592,22549.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L-12.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa8c…9169backed Yes58c319.81$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.2340265.9%265 W · 137 L+31.7wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+7.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4f74…8774backed Yes65c307.04$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.0421236.8%78 W · 134 L+14.2wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+15.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9418…e9f8backed Yes34c299.95$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.641,10830%332 W · 776 L-38.1wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-13.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No19c292.95$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.374,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe086…0450backed Yes67c270$181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.11,24352.5%652 W · 591 L-18.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No33c240.29$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.2312,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x2b59…9db6backed No26c236.65$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.271,90155.6%1,057 W · 844 L+7.7wins0.00per pick55cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No27c211$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.764,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No45c208.2$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.3812,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9047…2959backed No49c197.5$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.784257.1%24 W · 18 L+3.9wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+24.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4a2f…e889backed Yes60c193.72$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.6722849.6%113 W · 115 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-5.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xadb9…8326backed Yes65c164.8$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.514645.9%67 W · 79 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8bb0…c328backed No61c162.93$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.394447.7%21 W · 23 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x08ce…f301backed No27c154.81$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.3235323.2%82 W · 271 L-16.4wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-54.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0f99…6734backed No73c151.23$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.7654853.1%291 W · 257 L-28.7wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-12.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb9e9…f1ccbacked Yes54c146.76$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.9213959%82 W · 57 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick57cpaid-2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84d4…77a9backed No50c143.07$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.1314945.6%68 W · 81 L-9.0wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-18.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7f1f…eb96backed No61c141.73$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.4523146.3%107 W · 124 L-8.6wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-9.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8a25…ba81backed No50c136.89$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.7561760.1%371 W · 246 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick60cpaid+5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x7bbe…b95ebacked Yes57c134.66$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.441966.6%279 W · 140 L+36.9wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+13.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5641…6d0dbacked No19c128.27$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.9156322.9%129 W · 434 L-32.9wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-41.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd4f4…bb68backed Yes79c126.73$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.731573.3%11 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick72cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5aad…dc28backed Yes41c120.84$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.8567633.7%228 W · 448 L+33.8wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+16.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9d3f…fde2backed Yes70c114.9$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.95054%27 W · 23 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-14.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4f8c…9a58backed Yes53c113.92$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.9513544.4%60 W · 75 L+0.4wins0.00per pick44cpaid-9.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes55c110.04$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.166,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No33c109.99$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.77,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x4e5c…d892backed Yes65c100$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3557044.9%256 W · 314 L+36.5wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+13%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6396…7183backed Yes39c99.98$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.9910827.8%30 W · 78 L-9.5wins-0.09per pick37cpaid-31.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes40c99.97$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.171031.5%224 W · 486 L+3.2wins0.00per pick31cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No31c97.25$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.973,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd3b4…73cdbacked No60c97$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.1563143.1%272 W · 359 L-14.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed No65c95.87$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$623,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0de9…3d1fbacked Yes40c90$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5416036.3%58 W · 102 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac64…866ebacked No29c88.59$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.3571057.9%411 W · 299 L+1.3wins0.00per pick58cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x69b3…14f8backed No60c83.33$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5012466.1%82 W · 42 L-4.9wins-0.04per pick70cpaid-6.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc50c…8d41backed No69c83.17$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.2442366.4%281 W · 142 L+9.0wins+0.02per pick64cpaid+0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No47c81.87$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.4179947.9%383 W · 416 L-24.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-20%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No67c79.7$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.382,06060%1,235 W · 825 L+28.9wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa1d7…a338backed No65c77.22$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5029037.9%110 W · 180 L+29.1wins+0.10per pick28cpaid+25.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xdef6…b2b9backed Yes43c76.88$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.062347.8%11 W · 12 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick43cpaid-3.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No68c72.71$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.173,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf18c…18c1backed No75c71$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.2543959.5%261 W · 178 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb335…aac1backed Yes51c58.82$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.829538.9%37 W · 58 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick38cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x215b…8ec5backed Yes50c57.6$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.5515334.6%53 W · 100 L+5.7wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+21.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf8b…4dedbacked Yes33c54.58$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.7614546.9%68 W · 77 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x52dc…33c9backed Yes37c54.27$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.2776936.3%279 W · 490 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-6.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x82f3…9f82backed No22c53$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.471,45524.7%359 W · 1,096 L-33.3wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-16.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No28c52.89$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.92,30226.9%620 W · 1,682 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-21.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No67c50$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.51,92853.5%1,032 W · 896 L+39.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No69c49$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.853,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2654…b45fbacked Yes58c47.48$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.941,08959.4%647 W · 442 L+2.3wins0.00per pick59cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb546…ca22backed No43c47.35$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.520660.2%124 W · 82 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No67c44.77$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd93e…7434backed No49c44.61$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.6613337.6%50 W · 83 L-4.8wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No40c44.59$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.91,35930.2%411 W · 948 L-92.9wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-22.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x58a3…c5cebacked No60c44.42$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.657748.1%37 W · 40 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-5.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x66d9…3146backed Yes43c44.19$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.193246.9%15 W · 17 L-3.8wins-0.12per pick59cpaid-22.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xe605…914fbacked Yes45c42.4$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.411438.6%44 W · 70 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+15.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x21b8…ea84backed Yes32c41.4$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.153557.1%20 W · 15 L+2.2wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+11%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbd71…1281backed No65c40.04$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.9653951.9%280 W · 259 L+54.4wins+0.10per pick42cpaid+23%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x0066…20a1backed No75c40$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$308865.9%58 W · 30 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No62c40$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.83,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9fd6…5ab1backed No70c40$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$283562.9%22 W · 13 L-4.3wins-0.12per pick75cpaid-16.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7135…4c0dbacked Yes38c40$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.81747.1%8 W · 9 L+1.3wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+27.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x26cb…a394backed No59c39.99$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.5912437.1%46 W · 78 L-17.5wins-0.14per pick51cpaid-30.6%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0xf9cc…59abbacked No63c38.07$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.9868867.2%462 W · 226 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x30fe…74bcbacked No48c38$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.4218671%132 W · 54 L+19.2wins+0.10per pick61cpaid+18.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes30c37.32$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.1572624.8%180 W · 546 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid+12.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes47c37.25$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.813,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No67c35.36$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.834,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No69c35$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.135,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb9eb…e3e8backed No67c34.33$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238871.6%63 W · 25 L+0.4wins0.00per pick71cpaid+5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed No60c32.98$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.872,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf01d…bb31backed No52c32.65$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.9816272.2%117 W · 45 L+6.7wins+0.04per pick68cpaid+5.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x04dc…d572backed Yes63c32.3$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.8737465.2%244 W · 130 L+23.4wins+0.06per pick59cpaid+3.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked No71c32.16$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.834,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No67c32$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.444,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x04b3…1b7ebacked No64c31.27$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201,38565.8%911 W · 474 L+62.8wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+11.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xef61…2ee6backed Yes32c31.25$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.2533550.4%169 W · 166 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8ec6…b459backed No34c31$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4338146.5%177 W · 204 L+19.8wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+9.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xee54…a5eabacked No36c30.77$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.172161.9%13 W · 8 L+1.5wins+0.07per pick55cpaid-0.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfaf3…782cbacked No63c29.99$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.891,87663%1,181 W · 695 L+0.3wins0.00per pick63cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe8cd…4b4dbacked Yes61c26.6$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.331392.3%12 W · 1 L+3.0wins+0.23per pick69cpaid+33.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf51f…24e8backed Yes54c25.72$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.933250%16 W · 16 L-4.3wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-17.9%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x5b7c…f811backed Yes79c25.26$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.38247.6%39 W · 43 L+3.9wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+0.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5954…266abacked Yes43c25.03$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.215255.8%29 W · 23 L+3.7wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+14.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x186d…8bfebacked Yes65c23.66$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.3619166.5%127 W · 64 L+6.9wins+0.04per pick63cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.