Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on July 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1e3c24d979949840c9738fbe33d53a7c53ea060e633325e717cc10f5b8afe3a6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,227
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,014
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,227 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 115 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4f11…53b0backed Yes | 78c | 1,641$1,277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.73 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 37c | 919.66$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.85 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9807…5668backed No | 34c | 786$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.16 | 96 | 17.7%17 W · 79 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 28c | 780.49$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$562.83 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 38c | 648.38$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402.79 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 10c | 561.74$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.3 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 25c | 546.86$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.04 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc5f5…5d54backed No | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 283 | 24.7%70 W · 213 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 23c | 421.08$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.43 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 27c | 399.99$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 45c | 385.09$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.95 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 61c | 378.37$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.59 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed Yes | 58c | 319.81$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.23 | 402 | 65.9%265 W · 137 L | +31.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4f74…8774backed Yes | 65c | 307.04$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.04 | 212 | 36.8%78 W · 134 L | +14.2wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 34c | 299.95$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.64 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 19c | 292.95$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.37 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 67c | 270$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.1 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 33c | 240.29$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.23 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 26c | 236.65$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.27 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 27c | 211$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.76 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 45c | 208.2$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.38 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9047…2959backed No | 49c | 197.5$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.78 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +3.9wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2f…e889backed Yes | 60c | 193.72$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.67 | 228 | 49.6%113 W · 115 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadb9…8326backed Yes | 65c | 164.8$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.5 | 146 | 45.9%67 W · 79 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb0…c328backed No | 61c | 162.93$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.39 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed No | 27c | 154.81$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.32 | 353 | 23.2%82 W · 271 L | -16.4wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 73c | 151.23$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.76 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e9…f1ccbacked Yes | 54c | 146.76$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.92 | 139 | 59%82 W · 57 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed No | 50c | 143.07$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.13 | 149 | 45.6%68 W · 81 L | -9.0wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1f…eb96backed No | 61c | 141.73$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.45 | 231 | 46.3%107 W · 124 L | -8.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 50c | 136.89$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.75 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked Yes | 57c | 134.66$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.4 | 419 | 66.6%279 W · 140 L | +36.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked No | 19c | 128.27$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.91 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd4f4…bb68backed Yes | 79c | 126.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.73 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 72cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 41c | 120.84$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.85 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3f…fde2backed Yes | 70c | 114.9$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.9 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f8c…9a58backed Yes | 53c | 113.92$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.95 | 135 | 44.4%60 W · 75 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 55c | 110.04$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.16 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 33c | 109.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.7 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed Yes | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6396…7183backed Yes | 39c | 99.98$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.99 | 108 | 27.8%30 W · 78 L | -9.5wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 40c | 99.97$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.1 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 31c | 97.25$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.97 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 60c | 97$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.15 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 65c | 95.87$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0de9…3d1fbacked Yes | 40c | 90$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 160 | 36.3%58 W · 102 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 29c | 88.59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.35 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69b3…14f8backed No | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 124 | 66.1%82 W · 42 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 69c | 83.17$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.24 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 47c | 81.87$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.41 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 67c | 79.7$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.38 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a338backed No | 65c | 77.22$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 290 | 37.9%110 W · 180 L | +29.1wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdef6…b2b9backed Yes | 43c | 76.88$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.06 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 68c | 72.71$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.17 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed No | 75c | 71$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.25 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb335…aac1backed Yes | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.82 | 95 | 38.9%37 W · 58 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x215b…8ec5backed Yes | 50c | 57.6$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.55 | 153 | 34.6%53 W · 100 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf8b…4dedbacked Yes | 33c | 54.58$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.76 | 145 | 46.9%68 W · 77 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 37c | 54.27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.27 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed No | 22c | 53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 28c | 52.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 67c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 69c | 49$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.85 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 58c | 47.48$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.94 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb546…ca22backed No | 43c | 47.35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 206 | 60.2%124 W · 82 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 67c | 44.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd93e…7434backed No | 49c | 44.61$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.66 | 133 | 37.6%50 W · 83 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 40c | 44.59$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x58a3…c5cebacked No | 60c | 44.42$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.65 | 77 | 48.1%37 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66d9…3146backed Yes | 43c | 44.19$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.19 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -3.8wins | -0.12per pick | 59cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe605…914fbacked Yes | 45c | 42.4$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 114 | 38.6%44 W · 70 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21b8…ea84backed Yes | 32c | 41.4$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.15 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed No | 65c | 40.04$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.96 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0066…20a1backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 88 | 65.9%58 W · 30 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 62c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd6…5ab1backed No | 70c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | -4.3wins | -0.12per pick | 75cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7135…4c0dbacked Yes | 38c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26cb…a394backed No | 59c | 39.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.59 | 124 | 37.1%46 W · 78 L | -17.5wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 63c | 38.07$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.98 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fe…74bcbacked No | 48c | 38$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.42 | 186 | 71%132 W · 54 L | +19.2wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 30c | 37.32$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.15 | 726 | 24.8%180 W · 546 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 47c | 37.25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.81 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 67c | 35.36$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.83 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 69c | 35$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.13 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9eb…e3e8backed No | 67c | 34.33$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 88 | 71.6%63 W · 25 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 60c | 32.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.87 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf01d…bb31backed No | 52c | 32.65$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.98 | 162 | 72.2%117 W · 45 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…d572backed Yes | 63c | 32.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.87 | 374 | 65.2%244 W · 130 L | +23.4wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 71c | 32.16$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.83 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 67c | 32$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.44 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 64c | 31.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…2ee6backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 335 | 50.4%169 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed No | 34c | 31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee54…a5eabacked No | 36c | 30.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 29.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.89 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8cd…4b4dbacked Yes | 61c | 26.6$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.33 | 13 | 92.3%12 W · 1 L | +3.0wins | +0.23per pick | 69cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf51f…24e8backed Yes | 54c | 25.72$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.93 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -4.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5b7c…f811backed Yes | 79c | 25.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.3 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5954…266abacked Yes | 43c | 25.03$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.21 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x186d…8bfebacked Yes | 65c | 23.66$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.36 | 191 | 66.5%127 W · 64 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on July 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 33°C or higher on July 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.