Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on July 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x05028cf26d5ac8646c59d70b847d5bff2a02fd5df8c90dea0e288fea4814305e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,693
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,253
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,693 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 1c | 15,390$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.15 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 18c | 1,346$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.73 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79ad…4eedbacked No | 72c | 840.75$603 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.02 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…84afbacked Yes | 13c | 675.92$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.84 | 369 | 30.6%113 W · 256 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d56…eb97backed Yes | 3c | 640.52$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.29 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f74…8774backed Yes | 32c | 638.87$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.98 | 212 | 36.8%78 W · 134 L | +14.2wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 64c | 419.73$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.09 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 66c | 359.01$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.62 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 33c | 335.16$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.05 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 24c | 237.11$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.93 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a9f…d7c1backed No | 68c | 199.98$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.99 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1f…eb96backed Yes | 29c | 191.5$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.57 | 231 | 46.3%107 W · 124 L | -8.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 36c | 177.47$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.2 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed No | 65c | 159.98$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.99 | 361 | 50.4%182 W · 179 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 10c | 154.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 28c | 153.79$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.52 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Yes | 13c | 149.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 38c | 141.04$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.07 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 17c | 137.85$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69b3…14f8backed No | 76c | 130.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.85 | 124 | 66.1%82 W · 42 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 63c | 127.16$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 29c | 127$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.83 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7439…b8efbacked No | 80c | 126$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.29 | 132 | 38.6%51 W · 81 L | -6.5wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 10c | 125$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Yes | 26c | 121.07$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.56 | 353 | 23.2%82 W · 271 L | -16.4wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb259…9207backed Yes | 30c | 121$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.3 | 110 | 27.3%30 W · 80 L | -22.3wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 32-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed Yes | 41c | 117.55$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.2 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe4e9…4a3cbacked Yes | 17c | 115.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.54 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdba1…8239backed Yes | 23c | 109.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.09 | 128 | 53.9%69 W · 59 L | +10.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…1e6dbacked Yes | 37c | 108.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.84 | 327 | 38.2%125 W · 202 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed No | 77c | 102.24$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.74 | 149 | 45.6%68 W · 81 L | -9.0wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 24c | 99.1$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.78 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c28…8dadbacked Yes | 24c | 99.1$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.78 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 67c | 91.94$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.45 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 70c | 84.78$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.17 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 62c | 79.7$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.28 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0de9…3d1fbacked Yes | 26c | 70.83$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.42 | 160 | 36.3%58 W · 102 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 24c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30fe…74bcbacked No | 80c | 60$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.08 | 186 | 71%132 W · 54 L | +19.2wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdc55…522bbacked Yes | 35c | 60$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.85 | 178 | 31.5%56 W · 122 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 72c | 58.11$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.14 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 61c | 56.53$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.84 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c1…b127backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 170 | 20%34 W · 136 L | -21.0wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x58ea…08e0backed No | 74c | 49.23$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 63c | 47.43$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 64c | 47.31$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.05 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 33c | 41.81$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21b8…ea84backed Yes | 40c | 41.23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 64c | 40.45$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.73 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7135…4c0dbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea5…0b15backed Yes | 33c | 35.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 62c | 33.29$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 29.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbce6…e428backed Yes | 41c | 27.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa158…acacbacked No | 77c | 20.78$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.78 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 75cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 726 | 24.8%180 W · 546 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb074…9fb3backed No | 58c | 19.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 224 | 54.5%122 W · 102 L | +13.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked No | 77c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.14 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff70…78abbacked No | 75c | 16.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.17 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 65cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on July 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on July 26?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 33°C or higher on July 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.