Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C on July 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x015ec22e07bdedaff930e86385a1dc389b68cdc4daefb7fd6ddb2d840cd684a9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,643
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,362
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,643 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9807…5668backed Yes | 20c | 1,529$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.51 | 96 | 17.7%17 W · 79 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f74…8774backed Yes | 25c | 906.96$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.74 | 212 | 36.8%78 W · 134 L | +14.2wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc5f5…5d54backed Yes | 5c | 654.73$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.09 | 283 | 24.7%70 W · 213 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 25c | 604.35$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.95 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 11c | 581.43$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.73 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91f8…d951backed No | 78c | 522.11$409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.56 | 57 | 52.6%30 W · 27 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 23c | 400.07$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.64 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 79c | 356.98$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.12 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed No | 74c | 285.59$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 402 | 65.9%265 W · 137 L | +31.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x567a…b24cbacked Yes | 13c | 284.88$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.31 | 129 | 27.1%35 W · 94 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdef6…b2b9backed Yes | 32c | 262.88$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.36 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 20c | 244.74$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.25 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 26c | 237.32$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.94 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 76c | 236.65$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.38 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 77c | 218$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.23 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1044…d67abacked Yes | 15c | 185.56$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.17 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | -6.2wins | -0.17per pick | 38cpaid | -58%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2f…e889backed No | 74c | 174.93$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.76 | 228 | 49.6%113 W · 115 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 78c | 162.73$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.45 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 9c | 149.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 21c | 138.04$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.01 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 28c | 129.6$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.79 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 80c | 127.07$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.84 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 33c | 112.25$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.73 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 79c | 111.99$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.64 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0de9…3d1fbacked Yes | 20c | 111.54$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.24 | 160 | 36.3%58 W · 102 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 78c | 107.07$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 74c | 97.45$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.41 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed Yes | 25c | 90.01$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.84 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a338backed Yes | 39c | 85.67$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.4 | 290 | 37.9%110 W · 180 L | +29.1wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Yes | 26c | 84.9$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 353 | 23.2%82 W · 271 L | -16.4wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e9…f1ccbacked No | 75c | 80.79$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.2 | 139 | 59%82 W · 57 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3183…c74ebacked No | 77c | 79.99$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 57cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 16c | 78.85$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 80c | 77.39$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.48 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91d7…0dfcbacked Yes | 16c | 74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | -5.2wins | -0.19per pick | 37cpaid | -69%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x899c…81b0backed No | 74c | 68.98$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.94 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 64cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38b6…3844backed Yes | 30c | 66.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 23c | 62.26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 79c | 61.22$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.7 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed No | 80c | 60.98$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.39 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 73c | 60.4$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.31 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc176…5d01backed No | 73c | 60.08$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.26 | 104 | 63.5%66 W · 38 L | +6.1wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 20c | 59.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93cc…454ebacked Yes | 22c | 58.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 255 | 41.2%105 W · 150 L | +22.4wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 24c | 55.28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x917e…516cbacked No | 69c | 54.46$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.88 | 11 | 90.9%10 W · 1 L | +3.0wins | +0.28per pick | 63cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x61f7…f8debacked Yes | 25c | 53.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 287 | 42.5%122 W · 165 L | +24.3wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb546…ca22backed No | 66c | 52.18$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.75 | 206 | 60.2%124 W · 82 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 80c | 45.04$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…84afbacked Yes | 32c | 41.9$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 369 | 30.6%113 W · 256 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed No | 78c | 40.65$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 149 | 45.6%68 W · 81 L | -9.0wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed Yes | 39c | 40.59$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.03 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd6…5ab1backed No | 79c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | -4.3wins | -0.12per pick | 75cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x803a…219ebacked No | 71c | 36.7$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 262 | 65.6%172 W · 90 L | +14.2wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b7c…f811backed Yes | 35c | 34.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 69c | 32$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.92 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8cd…4b4dbacked No | 75c | 28.07$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 13 | 92.3%12 W · 1 L | +3.0wins | +0.23per pick | 69cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed No | 74c | 27.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 341 | 51.3%175 W · 166 L | -26.9wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 75c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 74c | 23.15$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.01 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c2…6b76backed No | 67c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.93 | 80 | 68.8%55 W · 25 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 72cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 69c | 19.71$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…5cbcbacked No | 78c | 19.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecc6…55bfbacked No | 76c | 15.79$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.79 | 83 | 85.5%71 W · 12 L | +6.2wins | +0.08per pick | 78cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C on July 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on July 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on July 26?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 33°C or higher on July 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.