Commodities · resolved market
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on April 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x013ca92a25b71a113b862c31cdd70ad923b0d22fd4df1f2f72116399ab45bbc0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Downof Up, Down
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $54,320
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $52,760
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,320 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Up | 1c | 3,397$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.97 | 938 | 40.2%377 W · 561 L | -69.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe9c7…147abacked Up | 32c | 2,041$659 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$658.96 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a02…ddaabacked Up | 9c | 1,433$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.94 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa540…0b43backed Up | 36c | 1,247$449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$448.84 | 1,277 | 24.3%310 W · 967 L | -58.2wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb539…cb26backed Up | 3c | 1,226$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Up | 22c | 1,082$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.36 | 273 | 22%60 W · 213 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa5…888fbacked Down | 56c | 1,000$556 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$444.17 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x264c…bacabacked Down | 47c | 1,000$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5174…0c80backed Up | 49c | 997.8$484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$483.93 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfddb…a2c6backed Down | 47c | 957.6$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$507.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa676…1c22backed Up | 45c | 900$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 35cpaid | -76.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6952…40d8backed Down | 78c | 521.06$406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.92 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -74.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…2ee3backed Up | 48c | 500$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce0e…bac2backed Down | 73c | 497.33$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.25 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d66…af0dbacked Down | 65c | 401$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.39 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b3…4484backed Up | 50c | 386.65$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.4 | 68 | 48.5%33 W · 35 L | +5.2wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa913…35d7backed Up | 39c | 378.2$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Up | 8c | 369.43$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.23 | 210 | 11.9%25 W · 185 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64da…fc36backed Down | 55c | 350.55$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.75 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.21per pick | 61cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0eec…e587backed Up | 44c | 301.1$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.52 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa22f…af41backed Up | 44c | 300$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 52cpaid | +49.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x418d…9c2dbacked Down | 59c | 300$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.8 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.14per pick | 64cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfdea…88b8backed Down | 76c | 300$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 8 | 100%8 W · 0 L | +2.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +50.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe1fb…90c7backed Up | 46c | 270$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.2 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59d4…b745backed Up | 50c | 260.56$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.39 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab3a…41a0backed Up | 39c | 243.9$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cf0…34b8backed Down | 60c | 209.7$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.68 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce83…ca77backed Up | 40c | 200$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf624…17c4backed Up | 42c | 200$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…3ff6backed Down | 79c | 200$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe1d…1079backed Up | 47c | 200$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82e0…bcfdbacked Up | 51c | 188.39$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.08 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef34…9644backed Up | 53c | 185.5$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.32 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.24per pick | 34cpaid | -81.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdf37…8b49backed Up | 47c | 181.29$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.01 | 69 | 37.7%26 W · 43 L | -6.5wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +289%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x75ae…5a01backed Down | 59c | 170$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae31…7fa1backed Up | 20c | 166.61$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.32 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc341…9a9fbacked Up | 47c | 160.96$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.65 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ffe…26f4backed Up | 53c | 150.92$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.48 | 135 | 38.5%52 W · 83 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0567…82d1backed Up | 20c | 130.86$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.86 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2a…e8a9backed Up | 19c | 122.75$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.38 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69c9…3b29backed Up | 39c | 121.95$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.56 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 33cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe380…217bbacked Up | 25c | 112.8$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77ab…3a5abacked Up | 51c | 108.65$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.41 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9da9…ec6fbacked Down | 60c | 107.35$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.94 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x933c…a8c6backed Up | 44c | 104.93$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.77 | 61 | 29.5%18 W · 43 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -22%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9237…1b1ebacked Down | 46c | 101.42$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.55 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58b…ef84backed Up | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -7.1wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d5…13eebacked Down | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.35per pick | 49cpaid | -69.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1052…625ebacked Up | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -57%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac2…4e63backed Up | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d9…76dbbacked Down | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.24per pick | 59cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad6e…9244backed Up | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a17…8df6backed Up | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb3e…4ad5backed Up | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x907c…23c1backed Up | 45c | 99.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 78 | 38.5%30 W · 48 L | -8.0wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x49f4…a7c9backed Up | 54c | 96.32$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.01 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xceb6…d56ebacked Up | 44c | 92$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.28 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb0…c328backed Down | 52c | 88.16$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.94 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -27%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8ca…e320backed Up | 17c | 78.66$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1e1…0366backed Up | 16c | 67.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fa9…8b89backed Up | 39c | 65.67$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.61 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x629b…b236backed Up | 38c | 57.45$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.83 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +118.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83c3…404ebacked Up | 36c | 52.97$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1a…af3bbacked Up | 53c | 48.88$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.91 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Down | 73c | 44.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.06 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -87.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1250…db19backed Down | 80c | 36.73$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfff1…5e20backed Up | 50c | 34.68$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.22 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6013…9826backed Down | 62c | 31.28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.89 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb6…98d0backed Up | 53c | 19.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Up | 54c | 18.62$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 121 | 26.4%32 W · 89 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.