Commodities · resolved market
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on April 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc70ecb25ff78bb56fc44ccfe6925738c8e00151f5ab8cb51e2b126a992d2f06b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Downof Up, Down
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,854
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,222
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,854 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Up | 9c | 502$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.18 | 198 | 7.1%14 W · 184 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Down | 59c | 292.88$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.18 | 938 | 40.2%377 W · 561 L | -69.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6cad…e017backed Up | 5c | 262.02$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe94b…5abebacked Down | 56c | 245$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.62 | 150 | 20.7%31 W · 119 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Up | 50c | 240.98$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.49 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.20per pick | 47cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x82bd…5acbbacked Down | 61c | 240$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.8 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c44…63a0backed Down | 50c | 224.58$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.29 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x948a…50e4backed Up | 47c | 204.17$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.75 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f90…4e02backed Down | 60c | 203.04$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.2 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9652…d0a0backed Down | 62c | 200$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa53b…4021backed Up | 42c | 196.44$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.51 | 297 | 47.5%141 W · 156 L | +34.9wins | +0.12per pick | 36cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdac5…ae24backed Up | 51c | 182.15$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.07 | 198 | 55.6%110 W · 88 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ad…4e77backed Down | 56c | 159.51$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa540…0b43backed Up | 33c | 156.05$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.81 | 1,277 | 24.3%310 W · 967 L | -58.2wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa222…7d3cbacked Down | 63c | 149.99$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.5 | 42 | 19%8 W · 34 L | -10.8wins | -0.26per pick | 45cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca9…37d1backed Up | 47c | 130$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.1 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae46…a663backed Up | 40c | 101.96$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.12 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -3.1wins | -0.16per pick | 48cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa5…888fbacked Up | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88a1…618dbacked Up | 60c | 96.79$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb52a…48a7backed Up | 59c | 81.97$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.36 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x131c…6816backed Down | 51c | 81.34$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.86 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e45…1efbbacked Down | 49c | 80.15$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.75 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ed1…a782backed Down | 50c | 74.33$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.85 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9223…fb06backed Down | 62c | 73.74$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.78 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Down | 51c | 70$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.08 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | -94.9wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Up | 28c | 66.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 210 | 11.9%25 W · 185 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1105…4dffbacked Down | 60c | 64.53$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.81 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8c…b2eebacked Up | 40c | 57.63$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.01 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…9c58backed Down | 55c | 55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb052…7adabacked Down | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c4d…4829backed Up | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…7adabacked Down | 59c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 57cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…ef79backed Down | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c0…4aabbacked Down | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0767…56d1backed Down | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +76.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8e…cb0bbacked Up | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeea4…efe6backed Down | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe393…f016backed Up | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.32per pick | 48cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x778c…a4b4backed Down | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.19per pick | 54cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x01e5…63d3backed Down | 59c | 44.08$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.29 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa423…fd1dbacked Down | 62c | 42.4$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.22 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9750…7956backed Up | 47c | 34.43$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0afb…d23dbacked Up | 50c | 30.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Down | 45c | 30.01$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.54 | 40 | 72.5%29 W · 11 L | +5.2wins | +0.13per pick | 59cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb0…c328backed Down | 56c | 20.05$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.82 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -27%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.