TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 12?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$12,276
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$13,777

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,276 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 114 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2612…5289backed No55c336.71$184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.6221844%96 W · 122 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-7.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc6d8…b90dbacked No58c329.18$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.5813155.7%73 W · 58 L0.0wins0.00per pick56cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8882…03fbbacked Yes44c311.42$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1365827.6%16 W · 42 L-2.7wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-31.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No55c274.3$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.6535258%204 W · 148 L-4.6wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfcff…8528backed No60c247.18$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.64757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-14.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xd06f…6719backed Yes49c244.25$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.015030%15 W · 35 L+0.2wins0.00per pick30cpaid-35.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa83c…a8f4backed No61c232.15$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.561060%6 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa8c…9169backed No47c187.72$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.7713357.1%76 W · 57 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x578d…bbaabacked No60c184.98$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.465957.6%34 W · 25 L+3.8wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+17%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x41f6…828ebacked No52c179.5$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.236731.3%21 W · 46 L+7.3wins+0.11per pick20cpaid+66.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed No57c170.05$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.498856.8%50 W · 38 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca07…6269backed No58c159.19$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.864862.5%30 W · 18 L+5.5wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+21.4%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x6dc3…3472backed No55c157.09$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.0912055%66 W · 54 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x50d8…0a0ebacked No63c145$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.573565.7%23 W · 12 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick70cpaid-8.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes10c133.66$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.2123044.8%103 W · 127 L+11.8wins+0.05per pick40cpaid-10.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3c70…34c4backed No46c128.22$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.381758.8%10 W · 7 L+2.5wins+0.15per pick44cpaid+36.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes38c121.42$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.811,31843.9%579 W · 739 L-26.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-13%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No62c111.63$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.425072%36 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick72cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes53c110.22$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.0414842.6%63 W · 85 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-8.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2429…02d9backed No46c103.87$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.92152.4%11 W · 10 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+16.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfea5…ee06backed Yes40c102.63$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.51353.8%7 W · 6 L+2.0wins+0.16per pick38cpaid+107.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2c1a…42d8backed No60c100.49$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.214827.1%13 W · 35 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-15.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x40b0…f139backed Yes39c100$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.930%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8370…e1efbacked Yes41c99.98$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.994233.3%14 W · 28 L-2.6wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-19.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9ea2…cd1dbacked Yes51c99.85$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.763828.9%11 W · 27 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick30cpaid+7.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x68db…44f0backed Yes49c96$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.23231.3%10 W · 22 L-3.4wins-0.11per pick42cpaid-28.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes37c92.29$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.927521.8%60 W · 215 L+6.0wins+0.02per pick20cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xff74…5de4backed Yes38c89.58$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.894932.7%16 W · 33 L+3.1wins+0.06per pick26cpaid+13.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe7c3…20e0backed No60c84$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.832347.8%11 W · 12 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-23.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes36c83.34$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3018638.2%71 W · 115 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x11fc…8262backed No61c83.05$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.342544%11 W · 14 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-13.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes30c83$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.0414445.8%66 W · 78 L-7.3wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-19.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes55c75$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.256330.2%19 W · 44 L-3.3wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-16%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No50c73$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.2636055.3%199 W · 161 L0.0wins0.00per pick55cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x07d6…64fbbacked No75c71.31$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.97771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick69cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x634d…4d02backed Yes35c70$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.5837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-26.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6548…9108backed Yes41c70$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.511053.6%59 W · 51 L+7.5wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+8.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf6f7…e0dabacked No45c67.98$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.393735.1%13 W · 24 L+4.2wins+0.11per pick24cpaid-3.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa200…27b0backed Yes44c65.62$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.066533.8%22 W · 43 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-23.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f1c…ebffbacked No50c65.59$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.062454.2%13 W · 11 L-0.1wins0.00per pick54cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked Yes55c65.38$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.697951.9%41 W · 38 L-5.1wins-0.07per pick58cpaid-16%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes44c62.11$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.0339414%55 W · 339 L-71.9wins-0.18per pick32cpaid-73.1%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0x4500…115dbacked Yes47c61.85$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.07250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-33%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes42c60$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.217345.1%78 W · 95 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No53c60$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.226355.9%147 W · 116 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes35c59.99$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.2816934.9%59 W · 110 L+11.4wins+0.07per pick28cpaid+7.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes27c57.93$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.8740648.8%198 W · 208 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes32c57$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.1516850.6%85 W · 83 L+0.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-11.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4245…a467backed Yes40c56.3$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.4816738.3%64 W · 103 L+6.0wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7ca7…1cb5backed Yes50c55.99$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.05650%3 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick57cpaid+7.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa1e7…8ffbbacked Yes55c51.05$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282437.5%9 W · 15 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick38cpaid+7.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6606…0195backed Yes49c50.78$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254146.3%19 W · 22 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick42cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe4b3…c131backed Yes21c50$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.520%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x51f0…186cbacked Yes40c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201040%4 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-14.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b03…4343backed Yes39c49.99$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.520%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6bee…7e78backed Yes37c49.99$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.512816.4%21 W · 107 L+6.3wins+0.05per pick11cpaid+67.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4d07…2b94backed No40c49.2$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.422653.8%14 W · 12 L+2.4wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+4.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5470…b04cbacked Yes39c48.59$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.951560%9 W · 6 L+2.0wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+23.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No61c48.06$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.6444138.1%168 W · 273 L+27.8wins+0.06per pick32cpaid+27.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No54c46.09$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.3315558.7%91 W · 64 L+0.8wins0.00per pick58cpaid-8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe5d7…6530backed No60c45$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.052100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+65.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No55c45$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.1639952.4%209 W · 190 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-13.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes44c45$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.85749.1%28 W · 29 L+3.6wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+15%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No55c44.97$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.3515766.2%104 W · 53 L+0.5wins0.00per pick66cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b40…ced4backed No75c44.64$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.316346%29 W · 34 L+6.1wins+0.10per pick36cpaid-2.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x65c7…e100backed Yes37c44$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.283046.7%14 W · 16 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+19.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb49f…1821backed Yes48c41.83$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205149%25 W · 26 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x35c4…d144backed Yes40c40$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163360.6%20 W · 13 L+5.4wins+0.16per pick44cpaid+48.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x7ff1…e002backed No58c39.85$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.74560%3 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick65cpaid-8.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No61c39.48$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.2532748.6%159 W · 168 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a0c…a853backed Yes38c39.47$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510039%39 W · 61 L+4.2wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+26.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f43…a1dfbacked Yes35c39$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.654233.3%14 W · 28 L-2.4wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-17.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x62a8…2132backed No64c38.5$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.866566.2%43 W · 22 L-3.4wins-0.05per pick71cpaid-6.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x49c4…db5bbacked No52c38.48$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.484551.1%23 W · 22 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+22.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb04…8b26backed Yes53c37.74$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20650%3 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2cae…7419backed Yes54c37.41$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.230%0 W · 3 L-1.6wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x167d…365cbacked No54c36.81$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.811100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+84%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8442…3eddbacked No58c36.4$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.24250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-14%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xccbc…f417backed Yes56c35.4$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.7510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb35…0988backed No57c34.91$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.01450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-13%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x170b…4737backed No50c34.72$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.344564.4%29 W · 16 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4818…e5debacked Yes38c33.34$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.65141.2%21 W · 30 L-2.4wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-20.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2eb8…0d00backed Yes61c32.42$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.82060%12 W · 8 L-2.2wins-0.11per pick71cpaid-18.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfd8e…aea4backed No63c32.12$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.837582.7%62 W · 13 L+5.2wins+0.07per pick76cpaid+9.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb07e…e682backed No64c32$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.526100%6 W · 0 L+1.9wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+46.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xcb84…8bbdbacked No60c31.41$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.5333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick53cpaid-44.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x764b…2a0abacked Yes44c30.38$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.320%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1bf7…ea54backed Yes36c29.59$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.65825%2 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-28.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb074…9fb3backed Yes37c29.59$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.092650%13 W · 13 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+12.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb0b5…e373backed Yes40c29.42$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.77560%3 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.17per pick43cpaid+39.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe5b1…30b2backed No61c28$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.831968.4%13 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick63cpaid+9.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0ecc…c745backed No47c28$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.942161.9%13 W · 8 L+3.3wins+0.16per pick46cpaid+32.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x86d3…da78backed Yes37c28$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.36933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-23.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x97ad…9a0dbacked Yes48c27$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.051154.5%6 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick64cpaid-15.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f12…262abacked Yes38c27$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x83bb…b01fbacked Yes39c26.44$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.311457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+4.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2751…d0b1backed Yes55c26$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.24520%1 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.24per pick44cpaid-68.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbd85…7a3dbacked No60c25$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.054645.7%21 W · 25 L-6.8wins-0.15per pick60cpaid-24.8%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No55c25$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.314467.4%97 W · 47 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick66cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed No61c24.44$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.5639231.9%125 W · 267 L+22.5wins+0.06per pick26cpaid+24%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.