World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9f89ea9826c2dd0db637fcdcb1793c5db75fe2a328a5fcd848fbfde324528726
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,284
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,785
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,284 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7dbf…aa75backed Yes | 26c | 1,126$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.2 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8882…03fbbacked Yes | 30c | 415.19$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124 | 58 | 27.6%16 W · 42 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa200…27b0backed Yes | 14c | 299.37$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.11 | 65 | 33.8%22 W · 43 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 17c | 282.72$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.01 | 275 | 21.8%60 W · 215 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 11c | 280.52$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.38 | 392 | 31.9%125 W · 267 L | +22.5wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +24%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 79c | 274.3$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.2 | 352 | 58%204 W · 148 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 12c | 254.78$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.66 | 441 | 38.1%168 W · 273 L | +27.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 74c | 176.01$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.76 | 218 | 44%96 W · 122 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 16c | 165.23$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.56 | 394 | 14%55 W · 339 L | -71.9wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 76c | 157.18$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.45 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 29c | 150$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.89 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 13c | 137.07$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.86 | 246 | 37.4%92 W · 154 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdee0…28d5backed No | 74c | 136.04$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.04 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed No | 79c | 125.84$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.84 | 110 | 45.5%50 W · 60 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5e…40fbbacked No | 72c | 121.7$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.94 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 77cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec1…e2e3backed Yes | 16c | 119.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 87 | 36.8%32 W · 55 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes | 17c | 118.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.62 | 169 | 34.9%59 W · 110 L | +11.4wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 18c | 109.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.12 | 406 | 48.8%198 W · 208 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3290…53cbbacked Yes | 28c | 108.76$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 90 | 20%18 W · 72 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed No | 73c | 101.56$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.72 | 133 | 57.1%76 W · 57 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8370…e1efbacked Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40b0…f139backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.55 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 77c | 95$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.05 | 131 | 55.7%73 W · 58 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 24c | 95$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.84 | 70 | 30%21 W · 49 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ed…6d6ebacked Yes | 16c | 91.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 13c | 91.21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 186 | 38.2%71 W · 115 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcff…8528backed Yes | 14c | 76.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 17c | 74.37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 48 | 27.1%13 W · 35 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6548…9108backed Yes | 18c | 69.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 110 | 53.6%59 W · 51 L | +7.5wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x26b6…94b8backed Yes | 16c | 63.41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 20c | 62.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 444 | 28.8%128 W · 316 L | -67.6wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 19c | 61.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 167 | 38.3%64 W · 103 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 18c | 59.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 173 | 45.1%78 W · 95 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa081…e7a0backed No | 77c | 51.08$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 62cpaid | -32%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f1c…ebffbacked No | 74c | 50.78$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 28c | 50.64$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 126 | 40.5%51 W · 75 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd7…b347backed No | 73c | 50.49$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.49 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 72c | 47.18$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 54 | 64.8%35 W · 19 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 80c | 46.09$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.38 | 155 | 58.7%91 W · 64 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 79c | 45.41$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 79 | 51.9%41 W · 38 L | -5.1wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -16%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 77c | 45$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.28 | 50 | 66%33 W · 17 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 75c | 44.97$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.35 | 157 | 66.2%104 W · 53 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 73c | 40.92$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 72c | 37.74$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 45 | 64.4%29 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 76c | 37.38$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.97 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 75c | 32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 186 | 69.4%129 W · 57 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…8159backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 23cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 72c | 31.21$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 263 | 55.9%147 W · 116 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 79c | 30.94$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.34 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 187 | 62.6%117 W · 70 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 200 | 65%130 W · 70 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 74c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 144 | 67.4%97 W · 47 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 72c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.97 | 162 | 54.3%88 W · 74 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82e7…f552backed No | 74c | 20.37$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.37 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c33…f910backed No | 76c | 19.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.71 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1b…da1ebacked No | 74c | 18.49$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.83 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 75c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 168 | 50.6%85 W · 83 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4066…2407backed No | 70c | 17.15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82ce…e92abacked No | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 24 | 87.5%21 W · 3 L | +3.7wins | +0.15per pick | 72cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x01c0…b105backed No | 76c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.36 | 38 | 84.2%32 W · 6 L | +4.2wins | +0.11per pick | 73cpaid | +15%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C or higher on June 12?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.