World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2b0aa00b8a280e59a1597b12b9c9f18799443e5d4de519cbe01169a55f978981
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,686
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,614
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,686 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 116 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 60c | 492.11$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.38 | 218 | 44%96 W · 122 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked Yes | 26c | 364.44$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.79 | 67 | 31.3%21 W · 46 L | +7.3wins | +0.11per pick | 20cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 62c | 336.07$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.55 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 73c | 326.63$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.88 | 230 | 44.8%103 W · 127 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes | 64c | 320.28$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.37 | 148 | 42.6%63 W · 85 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa200…27b0backed No | 57c | 299.96$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.48 | 65 | 33.8%22 W · 43 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 19c | 285.99$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.56 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +102.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 71c | 274.3$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.3 | 352 | 58%204 W · 148 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea2…cd1dbacked Yes | 33c | 263.79$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.69 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa0d…8c4dbacked Yes | 38c | 261.3$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.42 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 54c | 260.53$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.72 | 406 | 48.8%198 W · 208 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64a4…c103backed No | 73c | 260$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.46 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcff…8528backed No | 65c | 228.67$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.96 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed Yes | 27c | 217.75$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.15 | 48 | 62.5%30 W · 18 L | +5.5wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 31c | 201.17$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.7 | 285 | 58.9%168 W · 117 L | +14.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 50 | 30%15 W · 35 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 46c | 194.35$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.54 | 48 | 27.1%13 W · 35 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca06…b2c4backed No | 79c | 189.1$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.1 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed Yes | 43c | 185.06$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.19 | 133 | 57.1%76 W · 57 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 32c | 182$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.24 | 463 | 30.2%140 W · 323 L | -20.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d0c…0e19backed Yes | 37c | 172$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 43c | 166.27$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.87 | 528 | 50.8%268 W · 260 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 65c | 161$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.4 | 327 | 48.6%159 W · 168 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4a…a5a5backed Yes | 68c | 160$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.44 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +53.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 75c | 154.29$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.58 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f74…8774backed Yes | 24c | 136.82$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.4 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c9…17afbacked Yes | 18c | 135.13$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.47 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 36cpaid | +76.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 64c | 134$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.67 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 11c | 129$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 266 | 32.7%87 W · 179 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5695…60e9backed No | 79c | 126.83$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.83 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4591…7d89backed Yes | 75c | 119.24$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…4c65backed No | 69c | 115.14$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 69 | 60.9%42 W · 27 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 70c | 115.12$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.2 | 168 | 50.6%85 W · 83 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3290…53cbbacked Yes | 18c | 109.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 90 | 20%18 W · 72 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2797…9bc0backed No | 46c | 108.06$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.29 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +4.5wins | +0.21per pick | 45cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x859c…6eafbacked Yes | 37c | 106.1$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.26 | 62 | 24.2%15 W · 47 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 55c | 103.18$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.45 | 155 | 58.7%91 W · 64 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 110 | 45.5%50 W · 60 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40b0…f139backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.45 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa83c…a8f4backed No | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8442…3eddbacked Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8370…e1efbacked Yes | 34c | 99.98$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.99 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 32c | 98.78$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.49 | 392 | 31.9%125 W · 267 L | +22.5wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +24%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb431…82ecbacked Yes | 49c | 93$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.76 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f1c…ebffbacked Yes | 44c | 92.52$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.45 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 60c | 88.45$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.43 | 144 | 45.8%66 W · 78 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 76c | 81$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.39 | 168 | 52.4%88 W · 80 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 80c | 80.19$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.04 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 35c | 79.26$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.78 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 41c | 72.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 126 | 40.5%51 W · 75 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 23c | 70.83$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 323 | 54.2%175 W · 148 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68db…44f0backed Yes | 26c | 69$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 18c | 67.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 64 | 37.5%24 W · 40 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 70c | 65.4$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.02 | 159 | 54.1%86 W · 73 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 38c | 65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.64 | 103 | 20.4%21 W · 82 L | -6.7wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 73c | 63.38$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.03 | 160 | 51.9%83 W · 77 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…171fbacked Yes | 43c | 60$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 107 | 33.6%36 W · 71 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 44c | 57.66$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.51 | 167 | 38.3%64 W · 103 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes | 42c | 53.46$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.53 | 169 | 34.9%59 W · 110 L | +11.4wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ed…6d6ebacked Yes | 38c | 53.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 55c | 52.71$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.93 | 150 | 56.7%85 W · 65 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 65c | 51.1$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.05 | 162 | 54.3%88 W · 74 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 58c | 50.21$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.06 | 246 | 37.4%92 W · 154 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d70…cc5ebacked No | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b03…4343backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 80c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9fd…1902backed No | 63c | 48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.92 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +28%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…43f4backed Yes | 21c | 47.91$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…eb02backed Yes | 52c | 46$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.92 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77fc…0eacbacked Yes | 51c | 46$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.46 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked No | 61c | 45.9$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.9 | 87 | 39.1%34 W · 53 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…f053backed No | 49c | 45$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.95 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 75c | 44.97$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.27 | 157 | 66.2%104 W · 53 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 27c | 41.11$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.02 | 164 | 50.6%83 W · 81 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 36c | 40.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 63 | 30.2%19 W · 44 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f33…da59backed Yes | 75c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f43…a1dfbacked Yes | 30c | 38.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c70…34c4backed No | 31c | 38.6$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.63 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.5wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 64c | 37.5$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 86 | 72.1%62 W · 24 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1a…8c64backed No | 66c | 36.68$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.47 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +55.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb00f…3e60backed Yes | 53c | 36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.92 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07d6…64fbbacked Yes | 62c | 35.52$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.02 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 31c | 35.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 394 | 14%55 W · 339 L | -71.9wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xdb04…8b26backed Yes | 57c | 34.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 35c | 34.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 181 | 58%105 W · 76 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3d0a…0450backed Yes | 36c | 33.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 47c | 33.28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.77 | 45 | 64.4%29 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 53c | 32$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.04 | 186 | 69.4%129 W · 57 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ff…b951backed Yes | 36c | 31.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 62c | 30.76$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.69 | 65 | 66.2%43 W · 22 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d62…0a41backed No | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca7…1cb5backed No | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ecc…c745backed No | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +3.3wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc0…7bf6backed Yes | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -21%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…aaabbacked No | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +3.2wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe68d…e011backed No | 60c | 29.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5868…64c8backed No | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3b4…f2c6backed Yes | 37c | 27.43$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 54c | 27.29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.67 | 54 | 64.8%35 W · 19 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C or higher on June 12?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.