World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C or higher on June 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfc9f4325c45187481fda0253621a2ac1af17b452ef63b62e6d98d610bd26ab54
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,090
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,600
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,090 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked Yes | 8c | 833.64$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$765.31 | 67 | 31.3%21 W · 46 L | +7.3wins | +0.11per pick | 20cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 32c | 723.18$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.62 | 145 | 21.4%31 W · 114 L | -7.4wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 9c | 586.04$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$534.4 | 51 | 27.5%14 W · 37 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea2…cd1dbacked Yes | 5c | 553.1$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$523.68 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 8c | 477.71$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$439 | 392 | 31.9%125 W · 267 L | +22.5wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +24%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 6c | 439.85$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.84 | 218 | 44%96 W · 122 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31de…03ffbacked Yes | 62c | 400$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.59 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4a…a5a5backed Yes | 68c | 400$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.57 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +53.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa0d…8c4dbacked Yes | 11c | 348.87$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.48 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 75c | 266.88$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 266 | 32.7%87 W · 179 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 21c | 266.68$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.68 | 230 | 44.8%103 W · 127 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes | 22c | 236.23$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.97 | 148 | 42.6%63 W · 85 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 9c | 225$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.67 | 285 | 58.9%168 W · 117 L | +14.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 10c | 213.14$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.58 | 441 | 38.1%168 W · 273 L | +27.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x578d…bbaabacked Yes | 11c | 199.23$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.71 | 59 | 57.6%34 W · 25 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +17%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 28c | 156$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.82 | 147 | 53.7%79 W · 68 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8eea…e285backed Yes | 9c | 151.2$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.54 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | +3.4wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 9c | 147.85$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.84 | 327 | 48.6%159 W · 168 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa200…27b0backed Yes | 10c | 122.17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.64 | 65 | 33.8%22 W · 43 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68db…44f0backed Yes | 35c | 119.59$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.29 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfea5…ee06backed Yes | 17c | 77.15$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.78 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.16per pick | 38cpaid | +107.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa081…e7a0backed No | 74c | 53.77$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.53 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 62cpaid | -32%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8cf3…ca4abacked No | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 68c | 40$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb04…8b26backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 69c | 24.55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.93 | 142 | 5.6%8 W · 134 L | -27.2wins | -0.19per pick | 25cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C or higher on June 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.