Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 32°C on August 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7d8f35c5ed8e4d5ae86804d561bf0c98968373ff469055f0e50b2ae898f66096
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,966
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,231
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,966 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 97 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 70c | 864.01$607 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.91 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 30c | 810.89$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.77 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x085b…78d5backed Yes | 40c | 631.11$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.31 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 65c | 528$341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.56 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 31c | 489.5$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 70c | 450.7$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.39 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked Yes | 28c | 330.44$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.07 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 71c | 267$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.18 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc15c…67aabacked Yes | 58c | 259.92$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 31cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 31c | 247$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.6 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb902…06d8backed Yes | 41c | 243.87$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 71 | 59.2%42 W · 29 L | +6.9wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 52c | 235.14$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.86 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3500…07f0backed Yes | 45c | 218.99$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.57 | 155 | 27.7%43 W · 112 L | -10.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfadb…e3dcbacked Yes | 43c | 194.11$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.1 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | +7.1wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x578d…bbaabacked No | 63c | 186.43$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.61 | 80 | 60%48 W · 32 L | +6.7wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 57c | 185.41$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.84 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 46c | 167.4$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.54 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc054…2050backed No | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.73 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -2.9wins | -0.17per pick | 35cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 36c | 145.18$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.09 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fdc…9afebacked Yes | 35c | 140.8$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.91 | 61 | 36.1%22 W · 39 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 29c | 137$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.48 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 33c | 131.73$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.51 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 51c | 128.65$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.48 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b5…e373backed Yes | 31c | 110$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 151 | 28.5%43 W · 108 L | -12.7wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 72c | 110$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.91 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8817…cda8backed No | 70c | 105.73$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.3 | 248 | 41.1%102 W · 146 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 56c | 102.98$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.22 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 67c | 102.78$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.89 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 63c | 102$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.88 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd66f…ddbebacked Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e7…c275backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.55 | 82 | 34.1%28 W · 54 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f4…f04cbacked Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 174 | 40.8%71 W · 103 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 67c | 99.99$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ded…31ffbacked Yes | 42c | 99.99$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.5 | 68 | 35.3%24 W · 44 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 35c | 95.57$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.41 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed No | 68c | 94$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.46 | 350 | 63.1%221 W · 129 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…2ee6backed Yes | 38c | 92.31$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.27 | 335 | 50.4%169 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 45c | 91.38$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.25 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 39c | 90.3$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.33 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 61c | 89.09$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.34 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x375b…0ebbbacked Yes | 48c | 82.9$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5824…19d5backed Yes | 38c | 82.38$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.3 | 126 | 29.4%37 W · 89 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 67c | 80$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.66 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 28c | 75$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.85 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 48c | 74.2$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.32 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 42c | 74$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.88 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cfb…636dbacked Yes | 41c | 73.59$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.93 | 112 | 25%28 W · 84 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed No | 41c | 73.16$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.17 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 70c | 73$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda24…7e54backed No | 73c | 71.48$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.32 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 63c | 71.22$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.22 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda07…62a0backed Yes | 34c | 70.31$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.91 | 201 | 33.3%67 W · 134 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9248…6955backed Yes | 48c | 68.21$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 64 | 42.2%27 W · 37 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8340…b29bbacked Yes | 39c | 65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.35 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 46c | 64.33$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.44 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 34c | 60.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.37 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd443…5f71backed No | 69c | 59.99$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.43 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 59c | 58$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.78 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 62c | 52$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.97 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x518c…d366backed Yes | 36c | 52$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.84 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.43 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34c1…1bb0backed No | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.49 | 72 | 58.3%42 W · 30 L | +10.6wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | +57.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x470b…c331backed Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 147 | 44.2%65 W · 82 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe008…f7d3backed Yes | 32c | 47.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.26 | 134 | 23.1%31 W · 103 L | -8.5wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb26d…73f7backed Yes | 36c | 45.82$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 252 | 61.9%156 W · 96 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6786…c8ffbacked Yes | 45c | 45.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.35 | 324 | 40.1%130 W · 194 L | +12.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a0…8595backed Yes | 26c | 45.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 74c | 43$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.08 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed0c…fccdbacked Yes | 67c | 42.17$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.46 | 126 | 60.3%76 W · 50 L | -6.0wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes | 43c | 41$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 299 | 48.2%144 W · 155 L | +28.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa01d…3c10backed Yes | 37c | 40.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.81 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +54.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd496…0ab0backed Yes | 45c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -21%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88e0…ceeebacked No | 36c | 39.67$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.48 | 73 | 45.2%33 W · 40 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb93e…646cbacked Yes | 38c | 35.37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.28 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 63c | 35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.05 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 68c | 34.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.05 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x268f…bbd7backed Yes | 35c | 33.02$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 99 | 38.4%38 W · 61 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 79c | 32.81$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.79 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4647…d97fbacked No | 69c | 31.98$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.91 | 105 | 60%63 W · 42 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 29.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf27…f35fbacked Yes | 42c | 28.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 153 | 47.1%72 W · 81 L | -8.6wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 55c | 26.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 58c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 71c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.15 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce5…6233backed No | 70c | 24.18$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 135 | 59.3%80 W · 55 L | -7.8wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 54c | 23.84$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.07 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 73c | 21.37$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.86 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb58…ccd0backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 160 | 65.6%105 W · 55 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 70c | 19.6$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.93 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 64c | 18.86$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 65c | 16.95$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.95 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83f6…9ac8backed No | 73c | 16.86$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.57 | 51 | 70.6%36 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 73cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacac…50fbbacked No | 65c | 16.35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 283 | 60.4%171 W · 112 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad43…1427backed No | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.33 | 44 | 65.9%29 W · 15 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 32°C on August 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 30°C on August 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 31°C on August 3?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 33°C on August 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 34°C on August 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 35°C on August 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.