Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 33°C on August 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf705c6e2a2ac11ad61e0ecef7f40f41ddc8300403d5c0e616c66029f50682328
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,332
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,463
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,332 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 17c | 1,363$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 22c | 1,329$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 5c | 760.27$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.3 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3500…07f0backed Yes | 31c | 634.98$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.31 | 155 | 27.7%43 W · 112 L | -10.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 76c | 399.93$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.5 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fdc…9afebacked Yes | 28c | 363.93$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.63 | 61 | 36.1%22 W · 39 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes | 16c | 348.2$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.65 | 299 | 48.2%144 W · 155 L | +28.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f4…f04cbacked Yes | 30c | 299.88$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.45 | 174 | 40.8%71 W · 103 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e7…c275backed Yes | 23c | 299.71$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.51 | 82 | 34.1%28 W · 54 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed Yes | 31c | 281.71$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.33 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 79c | 275.69$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.89 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 73c | 253.58$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.33 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed No | 69c | 198$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.55 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfadb…e3dcbacked Yes | 15c | 192.59$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.23 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | +7.1wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 75c | 177$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.25 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9447…48d6backed Yes | 13c | 168.11$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 75 | 12%9 W · 66 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda07…62a0backed Yes | 27c | 163.2$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.84 | 201 | 33.3%67 W · 134 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42cb…0abdbacked Yes | 22c | 157.46$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.62 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 76c | 154.51$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.6 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 80c | 136$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 75c | 114.58$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.32 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d44…997dbacked Yes | 30c | 112.09$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.77 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed Yes | 32c | 110.96$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.01 | 430 | 50.2%216 W · 214 L | +21.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2cfb…636dbacked Yes | 34c | 103.36$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.79 | 112 | 25%28 W · 84 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 33c | 100.5$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.16 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x470b…c331backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 147 | 44.2%65 W · 82 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 18c | 99.52$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.54 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd66f…ddbebacked Yes | 32c | 92.85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 73c | 91.31$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.49 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1f…eb96backed Yes | 33c | 84.86$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 231 | 46.3%107 W · 124 L | -8.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 75c | 80$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.9 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5824…19d5backed Yes | 27c | 80$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 126 | 29.4%37 W · 89 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8177…6a9bbacked Yes | 33c | 78.48$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.76 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 31c | 76.47$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.98 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 16c | 72.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 19c | 71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.37 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 16c | 67.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 78c | 57.57$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.57 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 24c | 55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 70c | 53$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd338…9fd3backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 293 | 51.5%151 W · 142 L | -14.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d14…abaebacked Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6786…c8ffbacked Yes | 30c | 47.49$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.17 | 324 | 40.1%130 W · 194 L | +12.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes | 31c | 45.17$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 35c | 44.4$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed Yes | 32c | 43.11$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 36c | 41.64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73d0…6972backed No | 76c | 40.68$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.96 | 229 | 59.8%137 W · 92 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4647…d97fbacked No | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 105 | 60%63 W · 42 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed No | 78c | 37$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.16 | 350 | 63.1%221 W · 129 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 80c | 37$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dec…12f4backed Yes | 31c | 36.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 75c | 35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.85 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb924…0803backed No | 79c | 33.02$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.93 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9016…e4babacked Yes | 35c | 31.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +77.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb26d…73f7backed No | 76c | 31.6$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.44 | 252 | 61.9%156 W · 96 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 397 | 68.8%273 W · 124 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 29.98$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.09 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 29.3$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 73c | 28.68$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.74 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 68c | 27.44$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.78 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33ab…149bbacked No | 69c | 25.41$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.88 | 205 | 69.8%143 W · 62 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 73c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 66c | 21.12$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.09 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce5…6233backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 135 | 59.3%80 W · 55 L | -7.8wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xacac…50fbbacked No | 70c | 19.75$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.93 | 283 | 60.4%171 W · 112 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 70c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7c9…9383backed No | 70c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 80c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.6 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 33°C on August 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 30°C on August 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 31°C on August 3?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 32°C on August 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 34°C on August 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 35°C on August 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.