Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 31°C on August 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x01d0e193adedc66d96724488387e6fe4b9edaf105879eda7f8a097a96b8a9f1b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,943
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,938
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,943 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6eb0…1a72backed Yes | 31c | 978.12$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$670.9 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.18per pick | 40cpaid | +119.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 16c | 687.19$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$575.04 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 69c | 421.02$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.01 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea2…665abacked Yes | 22c | 300$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234 | 394 | 27.4%108 W · 286 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8df7…c124backed Yes | 48c | 260.4$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.32 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 35c | 254.29$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.94 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes | 16c | 237.15$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.42 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71d0…b73abacked Yes | 17c | 231.34$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.56 | 107 | 57.9%62 W · 45 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 49c | 231$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.23 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 74c | 226$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.89 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 20c | 183.73$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.83 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 18c | 183.62$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.87 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 20c | 173.86$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.36 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 17c | 158.2$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.02 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 41c | 158$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.47 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 80c | 156.61$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.29 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88e0…ceeebacked No | 67c | 136.12$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.58 | 73 | 45.2%33 W · 40 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed No | 74c | 135.7$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.81 | 350 | 63.1%221 W · 129 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 19c | 115.75$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.75 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed Yes | 49c | 112.32$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.78 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 79c | 110$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.89 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 21c | 102.72$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.73 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 77c | 102$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.02 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfadb…e3dcbacked Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.6 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | +7.1wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 14c | 97.78$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.09 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 70c | 90.3$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.61 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5824…19d5backed Yes | 25c | 79.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.99 | 126 | 29.4%37 W · 89 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 78c | 78.59$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.55 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 13c | 77.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.74 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 76c | 77.75$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.02 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 72c | 74.9$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.59 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 17c | 73.85$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.47 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…395bbacked Yes | 19c | 70$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.7 | 336 | 28.9%97 W · 239 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x532b…ccccbacked Yes | 49c | 65.9$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.91 | 81 | 76.5%62 W · 19 L | +11.7wins | +0.14per pick | 62cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf456…d568backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 213 | 38%81 W · 132 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4653…fc2bbacked Yes | 71c | 61.85$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.02 | 70 | 61.4%43 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e7…c275backed Yes | 33c | 58.04$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.01 | 82 | 34.1%28 W · 54 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 42c | 58$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.36 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc944…1686backed Yes | 46c | 45.6$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.65 | 345 | 33%114 W · 231 L | +20.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 36c | 42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.88 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked Yes | 35c | 38.54$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.03 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 33c | 36$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.12 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 79c | 35$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.75 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 75c | 33.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 456 | 75.2%343 W · 113 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 52c | 32.81$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.96 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.03 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 64c | 32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.48 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 74c | 31.02$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.93 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 47c | 23.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x31b1…11d2backed Yes | 51c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.78 | 105 | 53.3%56 W · 49 L | +15.0wins | +0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4941…b03cbacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.14 | 133 | 63.9%85 W · 48 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x470b…c331backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.65 | 147 | 44.2%65 W · 82 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf361…08f6backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | +4.4wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1b31…852cbacked Yes | 70c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.1 | 257 | 42.4%109 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea34…33bcbacked No | 80c | 16.51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.21 | 63 | 61.9%39 W · 24 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 70c | 16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 31°C on August 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 30°C on August 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 32°C on August 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 33°C on August 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 34°C on August 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 35°C on August 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.