Commodities · resolved market
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x32c725478803654b3c0bd40dd9a2ca3f43ec7f2ff21ffa339231bb3cb9b64467
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Downof Up, Down
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $61,445
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $49,057
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $61,445 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf40f…c3bcbacked Up | 9c | 4,402$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.61 | 117 | 36.8%43 W · 74 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbcb8…3058backed Down | 74c | 3,646$2,698 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$947.82 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 72cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Up | 17c | 3,490$597 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$596.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc722…1334backed Up | 8c | 2,498$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.51 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +145.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41f3…844ebacked Down | 55c | 1,656$905 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$751.27 | 307 | 38.8%119 W · 188 L | +20.1wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a23…0f72backed Up | 6c | 1,446$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.72 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -35%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x532f…e626backed Down | 77c | 1,250$964 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.5 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1c9…6872backed Down | 77c | 1,131$872 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.99 | 79 | 60.8%48 W · 31 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Up | 1c | 1,087$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 120 | 11.7%14 W · 106 L | +7.5wins | +0.06per pick | 5cpaid | +178.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Up | 2c | 1,004$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.09 | 1,030 | 9.2%95 W · 935 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Up | 38c | 1,000$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375 | 938 | 40.2%377 W · 561 L | -69.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x56f0…3068backed Up | 21c | 1,000$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x741e…9b87backed Up | 17c | 999.99$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb920…1b19backed Up | 27c | 999.99$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 161 | 37.9%61 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +12%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe286…7735backed Up | 2c | 971.87$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -51%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Up | 3c | 838.21$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.98 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef34…9644backed Up | 20c | 735.99$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.56 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.24per pick | 34cpaid | -81.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b8…0d21backed Down | 63c | 716$448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.3 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedcc…4d5ebacked Up | 2c | 700$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 152 | 21.7%33 W · 119 L | +9.0wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Up | 21c | 672.85$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.47 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x264c…bacabacked Down | 73c | 660$484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.3 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4bf…23f6backed Down | 72c | 597.55$432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.52 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa98…90bbbacked Up | 10c | 587.33$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.82 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1b…1419backed Up | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked Up | 21c | 500$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 90 | 38.9%35 W · 55 L | +5.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd78…837bbacked Up | 23c | 500$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.8wins | -0.31per pick | 64cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa6dc…12ecbacked Up | 17c | 470.12$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.92 | 72 | 34.7%25 W · 47 L | -5.7wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4574…f61ebacked Up | 26c | 465.61$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.03 | 42 | 26.2%11 W · 31 L | -4.4wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x567d…f927backed Down | 50c | 449$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +101.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa540…0b43backed Up | 17c | 431.65$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.37 | 1,277 | 24.3%310 W · 967 L | -58.2wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b5…e373backed Up | 27c | 400$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7152…faacbacked Up | 3c | 330.77$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea67…554bbacked Up | 23c | 300$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c12…3d74backed Up | 14c | 300$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ddf…5c37backed Up | 7c | 300$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 124 | 6.5%8 W · 116 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc368…f943backed Up | 19c | 256.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d66…af0dbacked Up | 27c | 201$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.27 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99b5…0b19backed Up | 24c | 200$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f59…c8c3backed Up | 11c | 181.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f63…f247backed Down | 69c | 166$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.46 | 86 | 50%43 W · 43 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bc8…adf7backed Down | 67c | 148.33$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.87 | 84 | 59.5%50 W · 34 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c0e…524cbacked Down | 51c | 111.37$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.47 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Down | 51c | 103$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.47 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | -94.9wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe0d1…82b1backed Up | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -4.8wins | -0.28per pick | 52cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2010…18febacked Up | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd832…67e0backed Up | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x823d…2db3backed Down | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x571e…67b2backed Up | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x385e…3896backed Up | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e01…63bebacked Up | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 155 | 56.1%87 W · 68 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a12…f7fdbacked Up | 48c | 99.99$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x784b…f19ebacked Up | 28c | 62.8$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34cb…7588backed Down | 50c | 57$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e31…0e6ebacked Down | 73c | 54.79$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.79 | 38 | 84.2%32 W · 6 L | +4.2wins | +0.11per pick | 73cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9e00…adf9backed Up | 29c | 45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed1…908cbacked Down | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.65 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 53cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69f4…43ddbacked Down | 80c | 37.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -41%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c1b…63ddbacked Up | 77c | 24.81$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5533…4826backed Down | 79c | 24.48$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.