Commodities · resolved market
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6d20b4c2f85538eaf3852d7bef8e59b2773dc70eda0a8bc44f3241dead3258c0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Downof Up, Down
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $125,596
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $126,845
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $125,596 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 108 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Up | 21c | 13,679$2,872 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,872.01 | 930 | 40.3%375 W · 555 L | -67.5wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe54d…fdecbacked Down | 77c | 6,365$4,875 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,490.08 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f45…a77abacked Up | 28c | 5,686$1,564 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,564.24 | 72 | 44.4%32 W · 40 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb45e…605fbacked Down | 76c | 4,907$3,751 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,156.06 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 72cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6636…bf37backed Down | 78c | 4,136$3,233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$902.54 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa540…0b43backed Down | 69c | 3,667$2,532 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,134.77 | 1,265 | 24.5%310 W · 955 L | -56.9wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Up | 3c | 3,316$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.11 | 210 | 11.9%25 W · 185 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56f0…3068backed Up | 17c | 2,555$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434.29 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c1b…63ddbacked Up | 20c | 2,508$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1c9…6872backed Down | 69c | 2,400$1,657 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$743.09 | 79 | 60.8%48 W · 31 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82e0…bcfdbacked Up | 43c | 2,356$1,008 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,007.69 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e13…e968backed Up | 38c | 2,000$760 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$760 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e65…694fbacked Up | 22c | 1,758$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392.72 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf77…202bbacked Up | 11c | 1,531$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 7cpaid | +1,626.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9c7…147abacked Up | 20c | 1,400$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34b0…3c56backed Up | 11c | 1,269$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.54 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +3.7wins | +0.18per pick | 20cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5c7a…1a97backed Up | 20c | 1,207$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.84 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5ada…522cbacked Down | 67c | 1,104$739 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe94b…5abebacked Up | 15c | 1,038$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.96 | 150 | 20.7%31 W · 119 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07d1…8ffabacked Up | 9c | 929.69$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.07 | 199 | 23.1%46 W · 153 L | +12.5wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6061…5090backed Down | 66c | 800$525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07e1…3fb4backed Down | 64c | 718.22$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa133…b362backed Up | 19c | 700$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05dd…e2afbacked Down | 79c | 671.31$528 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.91 | 141 | 43.3%61 W · 80 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41f3…844ebacked Down | 60c | 666.07$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.95 | 304 | 38.8%118 W · 186 L | +20.0wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xedc8…3296backed Down | 62c | 609.41$379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.64 | 256 | 61.3%157 W · 99 L | +23.0wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x95b7…d633backed Up | 12c | 572.94$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.04 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc786…f62ebacked Up | 26c | 557.69$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x041b…d3ebbacked Up | 36c | 552.35$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe068…c5eabacked Down | 79c | 527.29$419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.48 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Up | 21c | 518.74$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.44 | 53 | 15.1%8 W · 45 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a02…ddaabacked Up | 30c | 510.33$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.49 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdac5…ae24backed Up | 15c | 500$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 198 | 55.6%110 W · 88 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd640…480cbacked Up | 5c | 482$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.1 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5935…5e9bbacked Down | 74c | 442.47$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.99 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x319b…f04ebacked Up | 35c | 425$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.25 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | +4.3wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa61b…9d74backed Up | 32c | 416.67$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd687…b2adbacked Down | 64c | 400$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94ce…edf2backed Up | 40c | 400$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5d…31b9backed Down | 71c | 350$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2a8…8466backed Up | 28c | 301$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.4 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -2.5wins | -0.14per pick | 19cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2cd3…0cdfbacked Up | 26c | 300$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.7wins | -0.33per pick | 46cpaid | -83.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbbf2…31f0backed Up | 23c | 300$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf37…8b49backed Up | 40c | 300$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121 | 69 | 37.7%26 W · 43 L | -6.5wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +289%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7761…f74bbacked Down | 77c | 300$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6dc…12ecbacked Up | 21c | 297.67$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.47 | 72 | 34.7%25 W · 47 L | -5.7wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x448d…3adebacked Down | 65c | 253.32$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.66 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd71c…20b3backed Up | 30c | 252.58$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.94 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd83c…34f6backed Up | 33c | 252.44$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.42 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…8ca3backed Up | 15c | 247.74$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.16 | 357 | 50.4%180 W · 177 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Down | 77c | 240$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.78 | 195 | 35.4%69 W · 126 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa53b…4021backed Up | 14c | 228.33$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.24 | 294 | 47.3%139 W · 155 L | +34.3wins | +0.12per pick | 36cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d5…37aebacked Up | 14c | 216.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.85 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +108.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4689…1926backed Up | 24c | 211.99$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.44 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf259…7592backed Up | 17c | 207$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed Up | 38c | 205$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.9 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd53b…fc94backed Up | 45c | 200$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a47…e2fbbacked Down | 78c | 200$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfff1…5e20backed Up | 24c | 200$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b5…e373backed Down | 57c | 200$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3731…4bfabacked Down | 77c | 200$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x061f…fc87backed Up | 41c | 200$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x417b…18d3backed Down | 79c | 199.99$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.82 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab51…2473backed Up | 13c | 165.03$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 94 | 22.3%21 W · 73 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ef4…930ebacked Down | 79c | 149.38$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.37 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +66.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc72…226ebacked Up | 14c | 136.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.74 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe04b…1dd1backed Down | 79c | 122.05$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.51 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Up | 9c | 119.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 38 | 21.1%8 W · 30 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 12cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…11cdbacked Up | 14c | 117.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11e7…f559backed Up | 29c | 117.04$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.37 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb82e…5278backed Up | 21c | 114.76$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 73 | 28.8%21 W · 52 L | +6.2wins | +0.09per pick | 20cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5056…d9b5backed Up | 21c | 112.78$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb12a…cb82backed Up | 19c | 110.33$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.96 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae86…6e6abacked Down | 59c | 109.99$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.1 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.32per pick | 48cpaid | +60.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8aae…7bcfbacked Up | 20c | 107.63$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78d2…d224backed Up | 27c | 105.7$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.75 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 43cpaid | +55.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xacbf…be73backed Up | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Up | 46c | 104$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.84 | 1,045 | 34.6%362 W · 683 L | -93.1wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfce1…98e3backed Up | 49c | 101$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.49 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 29cpaid | -74%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Up | 42c | 100.1$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.04 | 308 | 39.6%122 W · 186 L | -17.4wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…216bbacked Down | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.25 | 148 | 49.3%73 W · 75 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d66…af0dbacked Down | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a67…52edbacked Up | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x008a…0681backed Up | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5e3…77e0backed Up | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09df…8344backed Up | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c0e…524cbacked Up | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x269e…4dcbbacked Down | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +46%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2720…d578backed Down | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d10…3bddbacked Up | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2ae…82aabacked Down | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb17e…22bebacked Up | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61b1…aea0backed Down | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Up | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 95 | 6.3%6 W · 89 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0b…55e1backed Down | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd44c…4193backed Up | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11be…714abacked Up | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -51%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e58…4344backed Up | 16c | 81.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe07c…f9b6backed Down | 56c | 75$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2256…e997backed Down | 61c | 63.03$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.58 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.