Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 32°C on August 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3c0584fd46de15bd7d29abb39f097fa77f60bcfddc4e9bb71e22fe43edf74575
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,457
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,726
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,457 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 60c | 481.96$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.59 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 57c | 183.92$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.07 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 42c | 173$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.56 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fb0…3aa0backed No | 52c | 166.65$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.79 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 16c | 163.7$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.56 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x684c…7f5bbacked Yes | 7c | 149.3$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes | 27c | 134.25$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.74 | 299 | 48.2%144 W · 155 L | +28.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 66c | 131.16$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.52 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 40c | 119.53$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.07 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 15c | 102.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.17 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 38c | 97.56$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.55 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 35c | 95.01$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.91 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 47c | 94.84$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.28 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61b9…07dfbacked Yes | 34c | 89.7$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.68 | 104 | 47.1%49 W · 55 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1f…eb96backed No | 58c | 87.69$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.83 | 231 | 46.3%107 W · 124 L | -8.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 39c | 85.25$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.45 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf733…297dbacked Yes | 14c | 83.06$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 175 | 11.4%20 W · 155 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 35c | 76.72$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 78c | 69.97$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.11 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42cb…0abdbacked Yes | 39c | 66.52$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.83 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 69c | 61.65$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.29 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe795…99c9backed Yes | 37c | 60.84$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.56 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 42c | 60.12$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.42 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 45c | 59.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.24 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 71c | 59.75$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.29 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 65c | 55.52$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.41 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed No | 52c | 52.38$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.29 | 385 | 60.3%232 W · 153 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…395bbacked Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 336 | 28.9%97 W · 239 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 61c | 46.04$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.11 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 49c | 44$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.77 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 68c | 43.86$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.18 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b88…63dfbacked Yes | 30c | 43.55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.94 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 40c | 42.42$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.97 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 57c | 41.53$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.81 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 59c | 40.66$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd01…87d5backed No | 75c | 39.4$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.86 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 61c | 36.91$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.42 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 56c | 36.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.88 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc14b…a589backed No | 79c | 36$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | +4.1wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +15%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea5…0b15backed Yes | 42c | 35.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff89…dbffbacked Yes | 45c | 33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 59c | 32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.02 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 29.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b4d…01c3backed Yes | 41c | 28.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 129 | 39.5%51 W · 78 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 39c | 28.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0d…849cbacked No | 59c | 27.02$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.02 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 41c | 26.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…bb12backed Yes | 40c | 25.84$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabff…6b73backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b5…e373backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 151 | 28.5%43 W · 108 L | -12.7wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 62c | 24.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.55 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 61c | 24.68$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.63 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 59c | 23.8$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2706…c6bebacked No | 62c | 22.75$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.54 | 318 | 66%210 W · 108 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 66c | 22.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.67 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 58c | 18.15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.62 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x70c4…1008backed No | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 333 | 50.2%167 W · 166 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 32°C on August 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 31°C on August 4?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 33°C on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 34°C on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 35°C on August 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.