Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 31°C on August 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcc1aff29cbd69ca56a09627498bbe093b71e7dc0850e619fdaa5951c29b267f1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,870
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,848
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,870 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 15c | 972.78$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.92 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2139…4ca8backed No | 76c | 465.71$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.25 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x532b…ccccbacked Yes | 19c | 232.79$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.62 | 81 | 76.5%62 W · 19 L | +11.7wins | +0.14per pick | 62cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 12c | 164.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.92 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 12c | 150.75$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.19 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 20c | 147.24$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.85 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 38c | 138$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.36 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed No | 19c | 136.67$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.93 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61b9…07dfbacked Yes | 70c | 134.17$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.68 | 104 | 47.1%49 W · 55 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 34c | 131.63$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.42 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x67a3…2b91backed Yes | 75c | 129.31$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.76 | 38 | 84.2%32 W · 6 L | +5.7wins | +0.15per pick | 69cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb38e…272bbacked Yes | 9c | 128.31$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.31 | 102 | 19.6%20 W · 82 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.12 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 77c | 97$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.31 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 46c | 94.6$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.4 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 14c | 80.95$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.88 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 15c | 78$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.3 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 23c | 76.9$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.31 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbf…d779backed Yes | 52c | 76.61$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.61 | 87 | 48.3%42 W · 45 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe795…99c9backed Yes | 55c | 75.81$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.93 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c3…92fcbacked Yes | 52c | 74.96$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.74 | 176 | 49.4%87 W · 89 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 24c | 67.61$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.97 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 24c | 59.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.88 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ca6…4beabacked Yes | 72c | 55.29$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.29 | 73 | 68.5%50 W · 23 L | +5.5wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked Yes | 53c | 53.19$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.21 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 46c | 44.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.36 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 73c | 43$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.34 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f12…f324backed Yes | 44c | 31.4$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.67 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c6…cd99backed Yes | 59c | 30.12$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.34 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 64cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 29.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7274…c205backed Yes | 62c | 23.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.04 | 213 | 61%130 W · 83 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 31°C on August 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 32°C on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 33°C on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 34°C on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 35°C on August 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.