Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on August 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3e232a4ce235fd75b5b4c3a81d4a1dd856000477c7b3e951af3b36966a43428d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,983
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,478
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,983 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 128 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5556…d729backed Yes | 24c | 851.21$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.65 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 61c | 713.09$437 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.78 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 33c | 601.82$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.95 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c90…17efbacked No | 64c | 458.06$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.24 | 288 | 47.2%136 W · 152 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8839…ddb5backed Yes | 33c | 455.14$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.6 | 218 | 65.6%143 W · 75 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x518c…d366backed Yes | 27c | 453.97$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.64 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 20c | 424.91$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.4 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a7…2657backed Yes | 10c | 402.18$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.83 | 183 | 28.4%52 W · 131 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 71c | 390.65$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.05 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked No | 71c | 388.5$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.82 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 37c | 356.46$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.14 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34d5…a977backed Yes | 33c | 351.15$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.17 | 230 | 30.9%71 W · 159 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 38c | 351.01$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.23 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 34c | 314.62$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.64 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc959…c37fbacked Yes | 33c | 302.7$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0546…17a9backed No | 80c | 300$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.41 | 47 | 70.2%33 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd394…7e90backed Yes | 6c | 269.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | +3.2wins | +0.10per pick | 6cpaid | +141.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0e6c…6025backed Yes | 38c | 261.9$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2141…7fa2backed Yes | 29c | 259.8$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.93 | 182 | 19.2%35 W · 147 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfeca…e166backed No | 74c | 254.99$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.3 | 71 | 56.3%40 W · 31 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 70c | 239.66$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.1 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 70c | 230.98$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.37 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…0020backed Yes | 36c | 229.66$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.58 | 389 | 30.3%118 W · 271 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb22a…9d35backed Yes | 25c | 217.37$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.38 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed29…3024backed No | 78c | 200$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 241 | 39.8%96 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71cb…15b0backed Yes | 22c | 200$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefdb…007bbacked Yes | 30c | 199.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 52 | 25%13 W · 39 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 29c | 196.04$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.29 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed Yes | 29c | 184.6$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.45 | 371 | 50.4%187 W · 184 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked No | 70c | 171.59$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.89 | 419 | 66.6%279 W · 140 L | +36.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x90aa…bb09backed Yes | 28c | 151.44$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b37…0eb2backed Yes | 32c | 150.61$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.9 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7342…d5b4backed No | 65c | 149$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.08 | 159 | 66.7%106 W · 53 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7b…7a75backed Yes | 30c | 148.59$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.58 | 271 | 29.2%79 W · 192 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc1…ee2fbacked No | 73c | 148.24$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.09 | 91 | 39.6%36 W · 55 L | +12.2wins | +0.13per pick | 26cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 35c | 143.86$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.71 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 70c | 142.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.87 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe44b…bf9bbacked No | 70c | 142.48$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.48 | 23 | 78.3%18 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 70cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 69c | 139.58$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.81 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed Yes | 30c | 131.07$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.32 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 36c | 124.1$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.53 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb87f…f7d4backed No | 73c | 120.67$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.58 | 149 | 57.7%86 W · 63 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe630…ef20backed No | 70c | 117.96$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.54 | 257 | 84.4%217 W · 40 L | +30.3wins | +0.12per pick | 73cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 64c | 117.19$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.19 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 34c | 112.51$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.32 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 75c | 108$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e88…697dbacked Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 83 | 43.4%36 W · 47 L | +6.0wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf668…e47abacked Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 181 | 31.5%57 W · 124 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff5f…5d3ebacked Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b5…e373backed Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 151 | 28.5%43 W · 108 L | -12.7wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 375 | 41.6%156 W · 219 L | -52.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1e14…7ef7backed Yes | 36c | 99.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 46 | 26.1%12 W · 34 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 64c | 99.25$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.94 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 37c | 95$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.6 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 41c | 89.82$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.63 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe117…1b4bbacked Yes | 36c | 83.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +2.8wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +38%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…e12fbacked No | 62c | 82.69$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.42 | 132 | 54.5%72 W · 60 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes | 35c | 80$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 77c | 73.48$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.16 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x052e…701abacked No | 75c | 71.26$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.6wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +70.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 76c | 70.58$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.59 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c48…1c17backed No | 69c | 70$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.98 | 165 | 52.7%87 W · 78 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 71c | 69.99$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.3 | 435 | 63.9%278 W · 157 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e25…c7dbbacked Yes | 18c | 68.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.16per pick | 30cpaid | -81.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 67c | 66.91$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.02 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 23c | 65.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee25…63ccbacked No | 74c | 62.3$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.47 | 200 | 56.5%113 W · 87 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 70c | 62.11$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.7 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…346abacked Yes | 32c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 59 | 35.6%21 W · 38 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 61c | 58.36$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.53 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 63c | 57.66$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.12 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf13b…db8dbacked Yes | 38c | 56.89$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.62 | 86 | 39.5%34 W · 52 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 64c | 56$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.06 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 28c | 55.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 70c | 54.82$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.7 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xace2…2089backed Yes | 40c | 54.05$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.62 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3614…2397backed No | 79c | 53.76$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.29 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28c1…b087backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 162 | 20.4%33 W · 129 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 27c | 49.78$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.61 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x415e…a1e3backed No | 60c | 49.75$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.9 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +57.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b49…2e46backed No | 64c | 48.86$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.59 | 52 | 67.3%35 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x118b…38c8backed Yes | 31c | 48.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 85 | 42.4%36 W · 49 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Yes | 34c | 45.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.33 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc85b…ba1bbacked No | 67c | 45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.93 | 190 | 71.6%136 W · 54 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…63eebacked Yes | 42c | 45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 36c | 41.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 77c | 41$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 64c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.32 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12f5…5ac4backed Yes | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 112 | 40.2%45 W · 67 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6095…be9ebacked No | 61c | 39.49$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +23%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe205…bc3ebacked Yes | 34c | 37.81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 36cpaid | +92.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 39c | 35.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbac5…2ef1backed No | 65c | 34.29$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 37c | 32.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1822…022fbacked Yes | 33c | 31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 155 | 20.6%32 W · 123 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf143…4ef2backed No | 64c | 29.73$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.7 | 47 | 66%31 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on August 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on August 20?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on August 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.