Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on August 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe0bc9f4b1b6188416a8f6fbd15ab0dc6156a755ae7c4fcafe1f3a3bdc1aa28e4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,425
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,738
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,425 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 119 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc959…c37fbacked Yes | 2c | 5,182$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.4 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa771…3028backed Yes | 0c | 2,725$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58a3…c5cebacked No | 35c | 1,465$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$945.79 | 77 | 48.1%37 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 34c | 1,178$405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$772.69 | 382 | 43.2%165 W · 217 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 29c | 638.9$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450.48 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2141…7fa2backed Yes | 54c | 500$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269 | 182 | 19.2%35 W · 147 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 48c | 450$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216 | 439 | 32.8%144 W · 295 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 39c | 400.19$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.36 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed No | 28c | 388.76$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.95 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 42c | 349.58$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.04 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 56c | 338.05$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.88 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked Yes | 47c | 299.58$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.04 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed No | 50c | 295.35$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.09 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 44c | 273.19$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.99 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…cafebacked Yes | 45c | 230.09$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.96 | 204 | 52%106 W · 98 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 30c | 210$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.77 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 20c | 209.99$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.01 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5074…977bbacked No | 30c | 193.49$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.74 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +4.7wins | +0.21per pick | 52cpaid | +47%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x42e5…c9a7backed No | 19c | 186.56$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.02 | 410 | 33.7%138 W · 272 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 48c | 179.97$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.78 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 41c | 155.8$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.11 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 13c | 153.42$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.93 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 40c | 134.14$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 52c | 134.02$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.23 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 45c | 124.86$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.39 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb87f…f7d4backed Yes | 50c | 119.83$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.92 | 149 | 57.7%86 W · 63 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 45c | 119.25$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.43 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93cc…454ebacked No | 37c | 118.65$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.12 | 255 | 41.2%105 W · 150 L | +22.4wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 58c | 116.22$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.73 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd37…9135backed No | 44c | 112.94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.94 | 179 | 40.8%73 W · 106 L | +29.0wins | +0.16per pick | 25cpaid | +113.7%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x97ce…ddadbacked Yes | 42c | 111.38$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.18 | 129 | 39.5%51 W · 78 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a9c…079dbacked No | 13c | 106.02$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.24 | 94 | 36.2%34 W · 60 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +94.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 44c | 104.5$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.44 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1e14…7ef7backed Yes | 47c | 99.99$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 46 | 26.1%12 W · 34 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff5f…5d3ebacked Yes | 47c | 99.98$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.99 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed No | 12c | 99.33$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.29 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 75c | 99.17$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.52 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 62c | 93.48$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.73 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 64c | 92.05$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.86 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed No | 51c | 91.4$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.79 | 417 | 52%217 W · 200 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 55c | 90.14$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.88 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bed…bbf5backed No | 51c | 84.89$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.52 | 118 | 56.8%67 W · 51 L | +12.1wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 67c | 82.06$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.8 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 53c | 81.49$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.26 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 63c | 80$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.6 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20f9…9577backed Yes | 50c | 78.08$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.04 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 54c | 77.43$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.7 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x660c…7f7abacked No | 30c | 74.7$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.2 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +2.8wins | +0.15per pick | 38cpaid | +52.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c2…e1e0backed Yes | 50c | 72.42$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.21 | 172 | 51.7%89 W · 83 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 52c | 71.2$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.18 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf13b…db8dbacked Yes | 75c | 71$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.25 | 86 | 39.5%34 W · 52 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 79c | 70.4$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.56 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 70$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb407…6eb1backed No | 20c | 61.83$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.5 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 54c | 60.46$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.36 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfeca…e166backed Yes | 47c | 59.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 71 | 56.3%40 W · 31 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2549…c8b1backed No | 47c | 59.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.79 | 81 | 39.5%32 W · 49 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed No | 52c | 57.87$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.98 | 385 | 60.3%232 W · 153 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 49c | 57.69$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.27 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17ea…7838backed No | 24c | 56.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.4 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +8.1wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 52c | 56$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.98 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 54c | 55.46$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.65 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 63c | 54.45$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.54 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c90…17efbacked No | 53c | 53.67$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.21 | 288 | 47.2%136 W · 152 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 68c | 52.82$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.68 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4fb…32c8backed Yes | 75c | 51.77$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.77 | 91 | 46.2%42 W · 49 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32a7…a84bbacked Yes | 48c | 47.08$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.6 | 207 | 39.1%81 W · 126 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8236…bfbabacked No | 52c | 46.19$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.17 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8c…3e30backed Yes | 79c | 45$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.55 | 123 | 50.4%62 W · 61 L | -14.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 47c | 44.6$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.98 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47e6…c039backed Yes | 46c | 43.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 182 | 42.3%77 W · 105 L | -19.1wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 66c | 42.22$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.2 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c63…8448backed Yes | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked Yes | 73c | 40$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.33 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ee3…6d6bbacked Yes | 42c | 38.21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1b1…40b6backed No | 53c | 37.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.58 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…55a0backed Yes | 54c | 37.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 295 | 36.9%109 W · 186 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes | 35c | 36.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.91 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 66c | 36.63$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb80d…4ba6backed No | 52c | 34.29$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.46 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +63.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf28…e94bbacked Yes | 49c | 32.65$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.16per pick | 59cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 57c | 31.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.54 | 493 | 59%291 W · 202 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01e5…49a3backed Yes | 80c | 31.19$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.83 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7c…34e7backed No | 76c | 31$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.44 | 185 | 67.6%125 W · 60 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 65c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked Yes | 45c | 28.61$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 375 | 41.6%156 W · 219 L | -52.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2e25…ef0ebacked Yes | 49c | 28.39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.91 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 57c | 28.03$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.93 | 281 | 63.7%179 W · 102 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 51c | 26.94$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.74 | 285 | 46.3%132 W · 153 L | -17.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d3…ab84backed No | 53c | 26.75$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.57 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9798…31e9backed No | 52c | 25.81$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.39 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4077…01abbacked Yes | 49c | 25.55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.38per pick | 63cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked Yes | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 43c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x697e…00a7backed Yes | 48c | 24.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe205…bc3ebacked Yes | 49c | 24.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 36cpaid | +92.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x81fe…80ecbacked No | 63c | 24.34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5938…7788backed No | 58c | 24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.99 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf1…7cb7backed No | 60c | 23.83$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.58 | 91 | 69.2%63 W · 28 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on August 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on August 20?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on August 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.