Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on August 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x52813fb406722a99edfc2d31b1aa1f605013d85eaddc42275dbe851b318bb557
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,084
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,426
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,084 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 10c | 959.9$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$867.16 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dca…ebaabacked Yes | 16c | 621.75$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$521.75 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked Yes | 16c | 571.41$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$479.95 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 11c | 393.32$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.98 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 13c | 335.27$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.7 | 439 | 32.8%144 W · 295 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed Yes | 5c | 316$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.2 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9447…48d6backed Yes | 7c | 303.16$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.16 | 75 | 12%9 W · 66 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 11c | 230.66$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.52 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 53c | 212.03$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.21 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1546…778bbacked Yes | 7c | 205$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.45 | 354 | 29.9%106 W · 248 L | -17.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd37…9135backed Yes | 7c | 200$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187 | 179 | 40.8%73 W · 106 L | +29.0wins | +0.16per pick | 25cpaid | +113.7%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…55a0backed Yes | 10c | 196.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.46 | 295 | 36.9%109 W · 186 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 33c | 165.54$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.19 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 34c | 163.66$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.61 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd394…7e90backed Yes | 7c | 149.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.49 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | +3.2wins | +0.10per pick | 6cpaid | +141.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 26c | 145.93$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.19 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 9c | 145.49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.02 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 17c | 142.91$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.91 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97ce…ddadbacked Yes | 20c | 140$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.8 | 129 | 39.5%51 W · 78 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1225…e17fbacked Yes | 11c | 139.56$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.22 | 165 | 30.9%51 W · 114 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc1…ee2fbacked Yes | 14c | 129.71$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.31 | 91 | 39.6%36 W · 55 L | +12.2wins | +0.13per pick | 26cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c2…e1e0backed Yes | 19c | 125.07$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.36 | 172 | 51.7%89 W · 83 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 13c | 121.93$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.21 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xb87f…f7d4backed Yes | 16c | 115.63$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.81 | 149 | 57.7%86 W · 63 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 10c | 107.98$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.52 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…400dbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 348 | 31%108 W · 240 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3990…06bebacked Yes | 15c | 94.81$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.99 | 299 | 27.8%83 W · 216 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 47c | 92.7$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.96 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 39c | 88.14$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.11 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 28c | 86$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.65 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 55c | 80.12$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked Yes | 19c | 77.2$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.23 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 56c | 73.27$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.34 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 29c | 72.41$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.68 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 69.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 67c | 69.78$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 32c | 66.49$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.91 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 48c | 50.49$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.09 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 45c | 48.8$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.87 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4dd0…8788backed No | 80c | 40$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 71cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…8fa3backed Yes | 32c | 34.77$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.72 | 393 | 46.6%183 W · 210 L | +29.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 78c | 32.93$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.55 | 398 | 10.8%43 W · 355 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1555…e4dcbacked No | 80c | 24.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 75cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8815…a510backed No | 70c | 24.23$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.96 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 74cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 68c | 23.6$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.67 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 56c | 23.33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.26 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x081f…bf8fbacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a7…2657backed No | 79c | 18.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 183 | 28.4%52 W · 131 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 60c | 18.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 79c | 16.15$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 281 | 63.7%179 W · 102 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…2ee6backed No | 70c | 14.29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 335 | 50.4%169 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on August 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on August 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on August 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.