Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C on August 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe212f057e0f3ef51593a05bcbdd8db373fd99797e9040b21f95c040cd8ad838f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,774
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,875
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,774 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 43c | 1,213$522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$521.9 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 39c | 1,017$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked Yes | 31c | 300$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 26c | 226.22$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.73 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 38c | 192.39$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.04 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1dc…48fabacked Yes | 53c | 188.68$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.69 | 122 | 38.5%47 W · 75 L | -10.6wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 54c | 184.85$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.83 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 58c | 173.99$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.49 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b9a…0f66backed Yes | 55c | 173.91$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 111 | 46.8%52 W · 59 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 57c | 171$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.53 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 62c | 135.76$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.39 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x457e…72ddbacked No | 46c | 132$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.28 | 134 | 44.8%60 W · 74 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 56c | 127.04$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.5 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x304b…a619backed No | 58c | 125$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.08 | 275 | 52%143 W · 132 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe1f…dbdabacked Yes | 47c | 125$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.75 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xabff…6b73backed No | 56c | 120$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.8 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 57c | 120$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.6 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 58c | 119.46$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.98 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 47c | 115.11$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.21 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 58c | 113.84$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.58 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5d…d8b5backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 97 | 28.9%28 W · 69 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 37c | 89$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.05 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 53c | 87.14$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.06 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 21c | 86.14$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.09 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 57c | 85.5$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.84 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 57c | 83$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.78 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 33c | 74.55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.55 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 41c | 74$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.16 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8857…4b5bbacked Yes | 52c | 71$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.92 | 227 | 40.5%92 W · 135 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 59c | 70$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.7 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 59c | 67$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.55 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed No | 60c | 66.92$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.01 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 59c | 66.86$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.15 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 44c | 66.73$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.13 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 39c | 62$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.34 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1ff3…eb39backed No | 52c | 60$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.95 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 53c | 59.9$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.97 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed Yes | 24c | 53.81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 47c | 53.19$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.19 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked Yes | 48c | 51$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.48 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.3 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed Yes | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43be…d8bebacked No | 74c | 47.78$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.42 | 40 | 77.5%31 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 46c | 46$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.02 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeeee…73e1backed Yes | 28c | 45.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.73 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked Yes | 41c | 43.27$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.87 | 375 | 41.6%156 W · 219 L | -52.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 45c | 43.19$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.75 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 46c | 42.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 44c | 42$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b5…e373backed Yes | 45c | 42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 151 | 28.5%43 W · 108 L | -12.7wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed Yes | 47c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.58 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 41c | 38.07$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.61 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 50c | 38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.06 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 58c | 38$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.96 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 40c | 37.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 50c | 35.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0d…849cbacked No | 47c | 34.04$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.04 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 46c | 34$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.36 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 38c | 32.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.37 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d9…af28backed Yes | 38c | 31.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 96 | 35.4%34 W · 62 L | +6.5wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed Yes | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb26d…73f7backed Yes | 52c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 252 | 61.9%156 W · 96 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd478…eb6ebacked Yes | 52c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 107 | 50.5%54 W · 53 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked Yes | 48c | 28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb701…8c1bbacked No | 59c | 25.24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.24 | 120 | 70.8%85 W · 35 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 61c | 24.68$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.63 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked No | 61c | 24.34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.49 | 347 | 48.7%169 W · 178 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed Yes | 47c | 22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15ad…d17abacked Yes | 48c | 21.49$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.8wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -39%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf71a…fa40backed Yes | 53c | 20.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 190 | 42.6%81 W · 109 L | -11.9wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb80a…6163backed Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked No | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa08b…270cbacked Yes | 54c | 19.33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 59c | 17.47$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.09 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 64c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.15 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6986…5585backed No | 74c | 15.88$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.13 | 98 | 52%51 W · 47 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C on August 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 30°C on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 31°C on August 4?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.