World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on August 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfa789d51325f4806fc5e463868b1ce1298517101e92ef4f88ed01182f6d619a5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,941
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,769
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,941 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 170 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 34c | 1,536$522 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,013.95 | 237 | 23.2%55 W · 182 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 59c | 1,089$648 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$647.54 | 149 | 59.7%89 W · 60 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35fb…8511backed Yes | 40c | 958.57$386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$572.08 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 68c | 908.56$617 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$616.54 | 327 | 48.6%159 W · 168 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 26c | 735.5$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$544.6 | 441 | 38.1%168 W · 273 L | +27.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 31c | 704.14$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$486.19 | 392 | 31.9%125 W · 267 L | +22.5wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +24%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3500…07f0backed Yes | 51c | 673.59$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.87 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95b3…bfebbacked Yes | 47c | 637.16$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.31 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 26c | 601$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$445.57 | 145 | 21.4%31 W · 114 L | -7.4wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 66c | 576$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.2 | 285 | 58.9%168 W · 117 L | +14.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6715…9365backed Yes | 49c | 571.41$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.35 | 74 | 27%20 W · 54 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 59c | 496.15$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.96 | 399 | 52.4%209 W · 190 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd496…0ab0backed Yes | 77c | 466.69$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.48 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 57c | 450.38$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.63 | 218 | 54.6%119 W · 99 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 55c | 430.78$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.17 | 223 | 55.6%124 W · 99 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 57c | 425.04$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.8 | 116 | 36.2%42 W · 74 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked Yes | 33c | 360.45$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.94 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | +5.5wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 59c | 345.88$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.04 | 235 | 51.9%122 W · 113 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 76c | 344$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.47 | 311 | 52.4%163 W · 148 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 29c | 335.61$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.26 | 120 | 40.8%49 W · 71 L | +10.2wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 65c | 309$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.47 | 360 | 55.3%199 W · 161 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 68c | 303.49$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.31 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +7.1wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 15c | 301.55$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.44 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 11c | 299.91$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.99 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | +9.4wins | +0.13per pick | 23cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 58c | 293$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.12 | 263 | 55.9%147 W · 116 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 65c | 292.2$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.93 | 144 | 54.2%78 W · 66 L | -9.8wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 56c | 271.7$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.19 | 183 | 48.6%89 W · 94 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 44c | 250$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 106 | 29.2%31 W · 75 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca28…ceb2backed Yes | 34c | 246.15$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.38 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5824…19d5backed Yes | 32c | 240$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.1 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaebd…a26fbacked Yes | 34c | 223.78$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.73 | 183 | 42.6%78 W · 105 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed Yes | 30c | 218.05$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.07 | 36 | 69.4%25 W · 11 L | +4.8wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 66c | 210.38$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.37 | 323 | 54.2%175 W · 148 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 65c | 198.65$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.85 | 160 | 51.9%83 W · 77 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 61c | 192$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.73 | 352 | 58%204 W · 148 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed No | 7c | 179.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 104 | 14.4%15 W · 89 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 74c | 155$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.7 | 200 | 65%130 W · 70 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Yes | 35c | 153.02$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.84 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 38c | 152.19$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.99 | 136 | 46.3%63 W · 73 L | -10.5wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 57c | 152$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.1 | 230 | 44.8%103 W · 127 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4bcc…b908backed No | 71c | 152$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.69 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -29%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 54c | 145.9$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.63 | 168 | 50.6%85 W · 83 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 28c | 145.79$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.42 | 93 | 37.6%35 W · 58 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 66c | 144.22$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.64 | 343 | 54.8%188 W · 155 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 68c | 141.41$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.16 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes | 55c | 140.84$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.55 | 148 | 42.6%63 W · 85 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 27c | 139.35$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.03 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 22c | 139$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.42 | 51 | 31.4%16 W · 35 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 34c | 137.44$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.76 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 68c | 131.85$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.51 | 77 | 41.6%32 W · 45 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 27c | 129.29$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ded…31ffbacked Yes | 25c | 128.02$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.28 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 42cpaid | +96.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed No | 66c | 124.95$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.82 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 44c | 124.18$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.97 | 72 | 48.6%35 W · 37 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 55c | 121.02$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.2 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x613a…2185backed Yes | 57c | 121$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.23 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb80a…6163backed Yes | 26c | 120$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.38per pick | 29cpaid | +102.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 71c | 117.99$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.57 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 67c | 117.67$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.27 | 157 | 66.2%104 W · 53 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 41c | 115.02$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.41 | 82 | 36.6%30 W · 52 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x859c…6eafbacked Yes | 29c | 110.86$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.64 | 62 | 24.2%15 W · 47 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 63c | 107.13$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.14 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee25…63ccbacked Yes | 36c | 107.1$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.42 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 26c | 104.31$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.02 | 148 | 27%40 W · 108 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc944…1686backed Yes | 33c | 104$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.68 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 37c | 103.23$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.53 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | +5.8wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x578d…bbaabacked No | 74c | 102.75$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.72 | 59 | 57.6%34 W · 25 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +17%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9290…3452backed No | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ccc…61dfbacked Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6548…9108backed No | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 110 | 53.6%59 W · 51 L | +7.5wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 33c | 94.87$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.72 | 173 | 45.1%78 W · 95 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 24c | 89.98$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.38 | 63 | 30.2%19 W · 44 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b5…e373backed Yes | 32c | 88.03$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.86 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 73c | 84.46$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.2 | 160 | 51.9%83 W · 77 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 57c | 82.22$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.09 | 78 | 42.3%33 W · 45 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda07…62a0backed Yes | 37c | 81.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.36 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 64c | 80.49$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.69 | 406 | 48.8%198 W · 208 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 40c | 80.25$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.46 | 271 | 43.5%118 W · 153 L | -21.4wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6f…8cfcbacked Yes | 29c | 77.61$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.09 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 31c | 76$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.63 | 186 | 62.4%116 W · 70 L | +13.0wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcba2…dc7ebacked Yes | 52c | 75$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.35 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7610…e332backed No | 68c | 73.65$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb092…48d5backed Yes | 55c | 73.07$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.07 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea6a…3ee2backed Yes | 22c | 70$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.65 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 67c | 68.94$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.07 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -5.8wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1b31…852cbacked No | 75c | 68.71$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.45 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd456…63a4backed Yes | 44c | 68.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.18 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 51c | 67$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.73 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +3.6wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +16%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 40c | 66$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.24 | 51 | 27.5%14 W · 37 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa8…63a4backed Yes | 26c | 64.16$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.62 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 35c | 60.6$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.39 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cf…39d5backed Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 66c | 60$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…eb02backed Yes | 29c | 59.66$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.27 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 53c | 58.41$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.41 | 95 | 58.9%56 W · 39 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 25c | 58.16$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.88 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9742…e412backed Yes | 36c | 55.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.7 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +74.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee2a…729bbacked Yes | 26c | 54.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.6 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | +4.1wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 52c | 54.09$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.73 | 141 | 26.2%37 W · 104 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on August 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C or below on August 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on August 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on August 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on August 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on August 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on August 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.