World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on August 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0c562e69dbd7cccba59b3c3d9709624d4222737ade27cc9fb8f4cd91c6e358eb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,539
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,050
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,539 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 7c | 3,639$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.55 | 441 | 38.1%168 W · 273 L | +27.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6715…9365backed Yes | 9c | 3,471$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 74 | 27%20 W · 54 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 9c | 2,033$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.65 | 237 | 23.2%55 W · 182 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35fb…8511backed Yes | 9c | 1,518$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.36 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 1c | 1,278$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 128 | 16.4%21 W · 107 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3500…07f0backed Yes | 17c | 684$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.3 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbda1…827fbacked Yes | 9c | 663.45$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 49 | 22.4%11 W · 38 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34c1…1bb0backed Yes | 7c | 517.97$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.6 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc944…1686backed Yes | 8c | 506.69$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.74 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 4c | 499.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 51 | 31.4%16 W · 35 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc15c…67aabacked Yes | 36c | 467.91$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x859c…6eafbacked Yes | 5c | 464.33$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.43 | 62 | 24.2%15 W · 47 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 5c | 426.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.33 | 221 | 11.3%25 W · 196 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74dd…2131backed Yes | 5c | 342.12$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.01 | 59 | 13.6%8 W · 51 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 5c | 330.3$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.96 | 106 | 29.2%31 W · 75 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda07…62a0backed Yes | 9c | 313.33$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9447…48d6backed Yes | 4c | 300$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 10c | 290.49$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.19 | 406 | 48.8%198 W · 208 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 7c | 259.79$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.65 | 180 | 35.6%64 W · 116 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa8…63a4backed Yes | 7c | 257.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.86 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 10c | 250$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.53 | 103 | 20.4%21 W · 82 L | -6.7wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x518c…d366backed Yes | 9c | 247.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.32 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc41d…c51dbacked Yes | 6c | 199.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 68c | 173.18$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.78 | 266 | 32.7%87 W · 179 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 6c | 172.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 89 | 37.1%33 W · 56 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Yes | 9c | 140.85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.14 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 68c | 140$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.8 | 145 | 21.4%31 W · 114 L | -7.4wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…d9b3backed Yes | 10c | 133.28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55bd…9bfabacked Yes | 10c | 107.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…8262backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b31…852cbacked Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 42 | 16.7%7 W · 35 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b6…0d2bbacked No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 75c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 58 | 81%47 W · 11 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 76cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 80c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.6 | 75 | 82.7%62 W · 13 L | +5.2wins | +0.07per pick | 76cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on August 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C or below on August 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on August 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on August 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on August 3?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on August 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on August 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.