TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on August 3?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$44,413
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$41,804

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,413 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 147 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6715…9365backed Yes31c3,937$1,217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2177427%20 W · 54 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-17%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ff2…f140backed Yes28c3,426$959 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$959.0523723.2%55 W · 182 L+6.9wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+42.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x35fb…8511backed Yes30c2,399$721 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$721.435644.6%25 W · 31 L+4.5wins+0.08per pick37cpaid+16.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xbda1…827fbacked Yes19c2,012$377 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$376.984922.4%11 W · 38 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-39.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes12c1,550$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.9144138.1%168 W · 273 L+27.8wins+0.06per pick32cpaid+27.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No66c1,223$809 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$414.1328558.9%168 W · 117 L+14.0wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3500…07f0backed Yes42c1,183$492 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$491.842927.6%8 W · 21 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick34cpaid-36.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6bee…7e78backed Yes11c1,159$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.0712816.4%21 W · 107 L+6.3wins+0.05per pick11cpaid+67.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd23f…94a1backed No76c1,109$840 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$269.0414959.7%89 W · 60 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-10%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6261…2e11backed No65c863.1$565 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$298.47333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.28per pick61cpaid-49%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No69c768$528 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$239.5839952.4%209 W · 190 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-13.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked No58c678.68$394 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$284.9614521.4%31 W · 114 L-7.4wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-41.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed Yes48c646.66$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309.861637.5%6 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-13.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4829…97ebbacked No63c641.23$402 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$238.821361.5%8 W · 5 L+2.2wins+0.17per pick44cpaid+4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No73c588.67$429 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.2332354.2%175 W · 148 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc15c…67aabacked Yes60c582.28$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35030%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No80c537.44$427 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.1632748.6%159 W · 168 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x19f4…c772backed Yes20c508.99$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.795131.4%16 W · 35 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-1.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a2b…c3cbbacked No62c444.95$277 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.461717.6%3 W · 14 L-2.1wins-0.12per pick30cpaid-45.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes9c419.46$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.2610414.4%15 W · 89 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-17.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No76c396.44$302 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.5323551.9%122 W · 113 L-0.5wins0.00per pick52cpaid-12.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed No60c392.01$236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.1513646.3%63 W · 73 L-10.5wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-20.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xaf46…1d91backed Yes11c375.92$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.562626.9%7 W · 19 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-36.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x08ce…f301backed No77c368.16$283 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.963917.9%7 W · 32 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick19cpaid+63.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x80f5…2b27backed Yes17c354.21$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.8811636.2%42 W · 74 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-16.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xda07…62a0backed Yes31c352.32$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.052231.8%7 W · 15 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-12.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No56c348.65$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.8421854.6%119 W · 99 L+6.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No76c322.3$245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.8234354.8%188 W · 155 L-1.5wins0.00per pick55cpaid-12%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x518c…d366backed Yes32c301.42$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.54944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.11per pick34cpaid+30.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed No68c298.19$203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.4218445.7%84 W · 100 L-6.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-11%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes20c295.3$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.4710629.2%31 W · 75 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-26.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd487…5f32backed Yes41c268.5$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1106955.1%38 W · 31 L+6.4wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+31.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc41d…c51dbacked Yes18c260.15$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.991315.4%2 W · 11 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-28.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes10c259.09$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.6924637.4%92 W · 154 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-30.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes12c252.97$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.3116934.9%59 W · 110 L+11.4wins+0.07per pick28cpaid+7.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes9c246.97$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.437248.6%35 W · 37 L+4.4wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+10.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes31c235.6$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.8840648.8%198 W · 208 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked No71c232.34$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.4818662.4%116 W · 70 L+13.0wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+18.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes20c230.72$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.0222111.3%25 W · 196 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick12cpaid+6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No61c214.51$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.7818348.6%89 W · 94 L-0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No61c208.83$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.6127143.5%118 W · 153 L-21.4wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-24.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x31b1…11d2backed Yes10c200$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.8wins+0.16per pick38cpaid+14.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No66c198.68$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.4616051.9%83 W · 77 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x10b0…9288backed No71c193.13$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.77666.7%4 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No76c192$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.1435258%204 W · 148 L-4.6wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes20c186.29$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.1726632.7%87 W · 179 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-11.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x74dd…2131backed Yes18c174.9$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.65913.6%8 W · 51 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick14cpaid-29.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf12d…eeafbacked Yes45c171.25$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.41520%1 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.34per pick54cpaid-67.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes10c149.99$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153735.1%13 W · 24 L+4.2wins+0.11per pick24cpaid-3.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc0ad…2f42backed Yes32c142.84$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.7130%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x859c…6eafbacked Yes16c140.01$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226224.2%15 W · 47 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-18.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0838…64f6backed No73c136.4$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.43551.4%18 W · 17 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes20c136$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.4723044.8%103 W · 127 L+11.8wins+0.05per pick40cpaid-10.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4a9d…a422backed Yes16c135.15$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.672777.8%21 W · 6 L+6.3wins+0.23per pick54cpaid+40.7%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x59ab…c0d2backed Yes40c129.62$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.353321.2%7 W · 26 L-3.6wins-0.11per pick32cpaid-51.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7aed…df39backed No65c129.05$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.172157.1%12 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-6.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed Yes13c126.41$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.9315954.1%86 W · 73 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0be5…893cbacked Yes40c122.15$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.8610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee2a…729bbacked Yes19c118.43$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.045135.3%18 W · 33 L+4.1wins+0.08per pick27cpaid+0.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No68c117$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.9615766.2%104 W · 53 L+0.5wins0.00per pick66cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc6d8…b90dbacked No60c113.26$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.8613155.7%73 W · 58 L0.0wins0.00per pick56cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb615…62b9backed No70c112.84$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.713669.4%25 W · 11 L+4.8wins+0.13per pick56cpaid+26.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5425…4c65backed No61c111.45$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.576960.9%42 W · 27 L+3.4wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+22.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaebd…a26fbacked No64c110$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.3318342.6%78 W · 105 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-8.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9aa8…63a4backed Yes14c107.73$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.491435.7%5 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+36.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb58…407abacked Yes18c105.81$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.9314827%40 W · 108 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc944…1686backed Yes40c104.99$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.454129.3%12 W · 29 L+3.1wins+0.07per pick22cpaid+4.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xca28…ceb2backed Yes45c104.12$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.662835.7%10 W · 18 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-17.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa047…4ffabacked No78c102.58$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.485554.5%30 W · 25 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes52c100$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5214842.6%63 W · 85 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-8.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xebdb…5ac4backed No59c100$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$414344.2%19 W · 24 L-2.0wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-8.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8b5d…57d3backed No56c100$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.56330.2%19 W · 44 L-3.3wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-16%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No69c98.26$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.7632639.3%128 W · 198 L-5.9wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x10a6…9c59backed No68c96$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.161100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+48.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe4f9…9ab0backed Yes31c93.9$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.77580%4 W · 1 L+1.7wins+0.35per pick45cpaid+64.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd3b4…73cdbacked No52c93$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.594240.5%17 W · 25 L-2.5wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-25.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes14c88.76$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.6216051.9%83 W · 77 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x44c1…17abbacked Yes35c88.02$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.07333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.22per pick55cpaid-51.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ec1…e2e3backed No70c85.27$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.278736.8%32 W · 55 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No76c83$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.1336055.3%199 W · 161 L0.0wins0.00per pick55cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb81…d9b3backed Yes18c76.5$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.752231.8%7 W · 15 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-30.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x361c…99d4backed No54c74.06$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.221776.5%13 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.09per pick67cpaid+17.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1096…a162backed Yes28c74$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.0310837%40 W · 68 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed No60c73.25$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.6317952.5%94 W · 85 L-15.0wins-0.08per pick61cpaid-18.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2e6f…8cfcbacked Yes40c73.05$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.43240.6%13 W · 19 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-6.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x6548…9108backed No79c69.99$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.911053.6%59 W · 51 L+7.5wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+8.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x93f7…c133backed Yes34c69.93$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242751.9%14 W · 13 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x754b…d06abacked Yes33c69.57$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.225756.1%32 W · 25 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-8.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed Yes21c69.16$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.2316852.4%88 W · 80 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-14.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1894…a936backed Yes24c67$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.93262.5%20 W · 12 L+3.6wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+16%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9742…e412backed Yes30c66.67$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+74.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb9e9…f1ccbacked No60c62.7$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.112653.8%14 W · 12 L+1.7wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+10.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked No59c62.57$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.8114445.8%66 W · 78 L-7.3wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-19.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf9cc…59abbacked No60c60$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.015170.6%36 W · 15 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick69cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x75cc…6b15backed Yes42c59.52$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256241.9%26 W · 36 L-4.1wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-8.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9016…e4babacked Yes31c59.1$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.32250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+91.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed No58c55.77$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.1914126.2%37 W · 104 L-7.6wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-26.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No79c53$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.1318669.4%129 W · 57 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xef98…b586backed Yes23c50.37$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.594418.2%8 W · 36 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick23cpaid-34.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed Yes24c50.26$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2916755.1%92 W · 75 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+0.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.