World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on August 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfc9e694416de18aa3830c6af9fe6cbca2361c55ca6183f98d7df9e6aceb886e4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,413
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,804
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,413 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 147 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6715…9365backed Yes | 31c | 3,937$1,217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,217 | 74 | 27%20 W · 54 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 28c | 3,426$959 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$959.05 | 237 | 23.2%55 W · 182 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35fb…8511backed Yes | 30c | 2,399$721 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$721.43 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbda1…827fbacked Yes | 19c | 2,012$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.98 | 49 | 22.4%11 W · 38 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 12c | 1,550$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.91 | 441 | 38.1%168 W · 273 L | +27.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 66c | 1,223$809 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$414.13 | 285 | 58.9%168 W · 117 L | +14.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3500…07f0backed Yes | 42c | 1,183$492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$491.84 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 11c | 1,159$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.07 | 128 | 16.4%21 W · 107 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 76c | 1,109$840 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.04 | 149 | 59.7%89 W · 60 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6261…2e11backed No | 65c | 863.1$565 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.47 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -49%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 69c | 768$528 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.58 | 399 | 52.4%209 W · 190 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 58c | 678.68$394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.96 | 145 | 21.4%31 W · 114 L | -7.4wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 48c | 646.66$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.86 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked No | 63c | 641.23$402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.82 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.17per pick | 44cpaid | +4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 73c | 588.67$429 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.23 | 323 | 54.2%175 W · 148 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc15c…67aabacked Yes | 60c | 582.28$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 80c | 537.44$427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.16 | 327 | 48.6%159 W · 168 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 20c | 508.99$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.79 | 51 | 31.4%16 W · 35 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a2b…c3cbbacked No | 62c | 444.95$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.46 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 30cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 9c | 419.46$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.26 | 104 | 14.4%15 W · 89 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 76c | 396.44$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.53 | 235 | 51.9%122 W · 113 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 60c | 392.01$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.15 | 136 | 46.3%63 W · 73 L | -10.5wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…1d91backed Yes | 11c | 375.92$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.56 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed No | 77c | 368.16$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.96 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 17c | 354.21$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.88 | 116 | 36.2%42 W · 74 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda07…62a0backed Yes | 31c | 352.32$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.05 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 56c | 348.65$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.84 | 218 | 54.6%119 W · 99 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 76c | 322.3$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.82 | 343 | 54.8%188 W · 155 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x518c…d366backed Yes | 32c | 301.42$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.54 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 68c | 298.19$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.42 | 184 | 45.7%84 W · 100 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 20c | 295.3$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.47 | 106 | 29.2%31 W · 75 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd487…5f32backed Yes | 41c | 268.5$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | +6.4wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc41d…c51dbacked Yes | 18c | 260.15$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.99 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 10c | 259.09$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.69 | 246 | 37.4%92 W · 154 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes | 12c | 252.97$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.31 | 169 | 34.9%59 W · 110 L | +11.4wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 9c | 246.97$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.43 | 72 | 48.6%35 W · 37 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 31c | 235.6$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.88 | 406 | 48.8%198 W · 208 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 71c | 232.34$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.48 | 186 | 62.4%116 W · 70 L | +13.0wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 20c | 230.72$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.02 | 221 | 11.3%25 W · 196 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 61c | 214.51$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.78 | 183 | 48.6%89 W · 94 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 61c | 208.83$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.61 | 271 | 43.5%118 W · 153 L | -21.4wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x31b1…11d2backed Yes | 10c | 200$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.16per pick | 38cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 66c | 198.68$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.46 | 160 | 51.9%83 W · 77 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…9288backed No | 71c | 193.13$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.77 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 76c | 192$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.14 | 352 | 58%204 W · 148 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 20c | 186.29$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.17 | 266 | 32.7%87 W · 179 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74dd…2131backed Yes | 18c | 174.9$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.6 | 59 | 13.6%8 W · 51 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf12d…eeafbacked Yes | 45c | 171.25$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.41 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 54cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 10c | 149.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | +4.2wins | +0.11per pick | 24cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc0ad…2f42backed Yes | 32c | 142.84$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.71 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x859c…6eafbacked Yes | 16c | 140.01$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 62 | 24.2%15 W · 47 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0838…64f6backed No | 73c | 136.4$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.4 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 20c | 136$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.47 | 230 | 44.8%103 W · 127 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a9d…a422backed Yes | 16c | 135.15$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.67 | 27 | 77.8%21 W · 6 L | +6.3wins | +0.23per pick | 54cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x59ab…c0d2backed Yes | 40c | 129.62$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.35 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -3.6wins | -0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed No | 65c | 129.05$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.17 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 13c | 126.41$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.93 | 159 | 54.1%86 W · 73 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0be5…893cbacked Yes | 40c | 122.15$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee2a…729bbacked Yes | 19c | 118.43$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.04 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | +4.1wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 68c | 117$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.96 | 157 | 66.2%104 W · 53 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 60c | 113.26$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.86 | 131 | 55.7%73 W · 58 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 70c | 112.84$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.71 | 36 | 69.4%25 W · 11 L | +4.8wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…4c65backed No | 61c | 111.45$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.57 | 69 | 60.9%42 W · 27 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaebd…a26fbacked No | 64c | 110$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.33 | 183 | 42.6%78 W · 105 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa8…63a4backed Yes | 14c | 107.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.49 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 18c | 105.81$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.93 | 148 | 27%40 W · 108 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc944…1686backed Yes | 40c | 104.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.45 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca28…ceb2backed Yes | 45c | 104.12$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.66 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 78c | 102.58$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.48 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 148 | 42.6%63 W · 85 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed No | 56c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.5 | 63 | 30.2%19 W · 44 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 69c | 98.26$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.76 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10a6…9c59backed No | 68c | 96$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f9…9ab0backed Yes | 31c | 93.9$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.77 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.35per pick | 45cpaid | +64.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 52c | 93$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.59 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 14c | 88.76$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 160 | 51.9%83 W · 77 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…17abbacked Yes | 35c | 88.02$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.07 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec1…e2e3backed No | 70c | 85.27$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.27 | 87 | 36.8%32 W · 55 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 76c | 83$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.13 | 360 | 55.3%199 W · 161 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…d9b3backed Yes | 18c | 76.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x361c…99d4backed No | 54c | 74.06$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.22 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 67cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 28c | 74$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.03 | 108 | 37%40 W · 68 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 60c | 73.25$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.63 | 179 | 52.5%94 W · 85 L | -15.0wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6f…8cfcbacked Yes | 40c | 73.05$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6548…9108backed No | 79c | 69.99$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.9 | 110 | 53.6%59 W · 51 L | +7.5wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x93f7…c133backed Yes | 34c | 69.93$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x754b…d06abacked Yes | 33c | 69.57$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.22 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 21c | 69.16$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.23 | 168 | 52.4%88 W · 80 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 24c | 67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +3.6wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +16%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9742…e412backed Yes | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +74.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e9…f1ccbacked No | 60c | 62.7$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.11 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 59c | 62.57$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.81 | 144 | 45.8%66 W · 78 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 60c | 60$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.01 | 51 | 70.6%36 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 42c | 59.52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 62 | 41.9%26 W · 36 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9016…e4babacked Yes | 31c | 59.1$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +91.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed No | 58c | 55.77$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.19 | 141 | 26.2%37 W · 104 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 79c | 53$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.13 | 186 | 69.4%129 W · 57 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 23c | 50.37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 24c | 50.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 167 | 55.1%92 W · 75 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on August 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C or below on August 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on August 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on August 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on August 3?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on August 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on August 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.