World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on August 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x77f2cc8ed6319113317df7df7ef194a3f4f9feef13846fec48b891f23a3fa061
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,860
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,752
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,860 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 3c | 2,586$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.31 | 237 | 23.2%55 W · 182 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35fb…8511backed Yes | 1c | 2,539$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes | 4c | 1,345$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.48 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 2c | 1,282$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.12 | 221 | 11.3%25 W · 196 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 5c | 1,234$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.85 | 327 | 48.6%159 W · 168 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 128 | 16.4%21 W · 107 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74dd…2131backed Yes | 1c | 962.42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 59 | 13.6%8 W · 51 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3500…07f0backed Yes | 8c | 551.06$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.8 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 23c | 491.95$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.19 | 392 | 31.9%125 W · 267 L | +22.5wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +24%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x276a…d445backed Yes | 7c | 455.16$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5533…51babacked Yes | 4c | 333.68$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 28 | 3.6%1 W · 27 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 76c | 302.04$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.85 | 441 | 38.1%168 W · 273 L | +27.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 4c | 298.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 63 | 30.2%19 W · 44 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 5c | 294.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 89 | 37.1%33 W · 56 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 4c | 253.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 72 | 48.6%35 W · 37 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 6c | 249.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.81 | 42 | 16.7%7 W · 35 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 26c | 242$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.73 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc057…0c9abacked Yes | 11c | 227.89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 7c | 221$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 9c | 219.3$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.23 | 148 | 27%40 W · 108 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40de…66bdbacked Yes | 11c | 193.7$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaebd…a26fbacked Yes | 9c | 159.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 183 | 42.6%78 W · 105 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 77c | 144.6$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.93 | 200 | 65%130 W · 70 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 24c | 100.35$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.07 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec1…e2e3backed No | 78c | 90.06$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.06 | 87 | 36.8%32 W · 55 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 75c | 83.01$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.99 | 53 | 83%44 W · 9 L | +5.7wins | +0.11per pick | 72cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed Yes | 23c | 80$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 77c | 76.99$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.84 | 87 | 75.9%66 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 23c | 70.95$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.62 | 271 | 43.5%118 W · 153 L | -21.4wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…2ee6backed Yes | 29c | 64.84$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.57 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x64be…c653backed Yes | 20c | 60.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.91 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…395bbacked Yes | 27c | 51.57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.82 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -5.8wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c1…5b62backed Yes | 23c | 43.96$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 71 | 29.6%21 W · 50 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa8…63a4backed No | 75c | 38.82$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.7 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed No | 71c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.16 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed No | 73c | 20.05$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.41 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 69cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb80c…827bbacked No | 74c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.16 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 67c | 15.6$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.15 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x754b…d06abacked No | 76c | 13.32$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.2 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 79c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.73 | 75 | 82.7%62 W · 13 L | +5.2wins | +0.07per pick | 76cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on August 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C or below on August 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on August 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on August 3?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on August 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on August 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on August 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.