World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on August 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x95899baebaf8adec0752dfae18d427bc3725328a2960cff50e786c78ac4b5c3f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,859
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $47,721
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,859 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 159 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 16c | 1,995$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.12 | 392 | 31.9%125 W · 267 L | +22.5wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +24%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes | 26c | 1,545$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.69 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x578d…bbaabacked No | 79c | 1,177$929 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.27 | 59 | 57.6%34 W · 25 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +17%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe008…f7d3backed Yes | 2c | 1,154$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.43 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +49%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 73c | 1,037$755 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.79 | 149 | 59.7%89 W · 60 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 50c | 1,022$508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$508.26 | 141 | 26.2%37 W · 104 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 21c | 986.93$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.96 | 237 | 23.2%55 W · 182 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 63c | 932.23$590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.88 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 55c | 654.85$362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.19 | 218 | 54.6%119 W · 99 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd487…5f32backed No | 71c | 567.39$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.71 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | +6.4wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 36c | 534.06$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.41 | 116 | 36.2%42 W · 74 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Yes | 20c | 530.56$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.7 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked Yes | 37c | 492.59$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.17per pick | 44cpaid | +4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 17c | 476.99$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.09 | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 76c | 470$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.9 | 311 | 52.4%163 W · 148 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 72c | 462.2$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.82 | 441 | 38.1%168 W · 273 L | +27.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e6…6423backed No | 78c | 461.34$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.81 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -23%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x556b…4e33backed No | 73c | 460.84$338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.68 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1eb6…671dbacked Yes | 5c | 454.18$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 73c | 444.36$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.93 | 323 | 54.2%175 W · 148 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 49c | 415.8$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.38 | 223 | 55.6%124 W · 99 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 73c | 391.78$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.94 | 235 | 51.9%122 W · 113 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaebd…a26fbacked Yes | 23c | 388.17$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.68 | 183 | 42.6%78 W · 105 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 25c | 374.33$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.44 | 63 | 30.2%19 W · 44 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3500…07f0backed Yes | 32c | 370.77$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.23 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 56c | 328.16$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.8 | 528 | 50.8%268 W · 260 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b31…852cbacked Yes | 57c | 327.3$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.14 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54c8…3082backed Yes | 48c | 302.29$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc944…1686backed Yes | 18c | 300.79$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.77 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x417f…d9a9backed Yes | 15c | 300.02$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | +3.9wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 5c | 295.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 128 | 16.4%21 W · 107 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 13c | 287.28$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.49 | 327 | 48.6%159 W · 168 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe718…1e2bbacked No | 67c | 286.39$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.97 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 70cpaid | +23%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd970…932abacked Yes | 19c | 264.9$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.49 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57f6…ba20backed No | 74c | 262.66$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed Yes | 35c | 261.67$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.78 | 73 | 53.4%39 W · 34 L | +10.5wins | +0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 19c | 256.6$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.78 | 72 | 48.6%35 W · 37 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x94fb…ab54backed Yes | 16c | 241.51$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 13c | 238$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.19 | 104 | 14.4%15 W · 89 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 20c | 229.2$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.32 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 68c | 192$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.58 | 352 | 58%204 W · 148 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes | 18c | 184.69$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.34 | 169 | 34.9%59 W · 110 L | +11.4wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e9…fb3cbacked No | 80c | 182.32$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.81 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 66cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes | 20c | 169.19$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +6.8wins | +0.24per pick | 33cpaid | +106.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed No | 72c | 168.55$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.69 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 71c | 164.57$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.2 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -3.1wins | -0.17per pick | 56cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 12c | 159.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.82 | 221 | 11.3%25 W · 196 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 13c | 154.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 266 | 32.7%87 W · 179 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee25…63ccbacked Yes | 17c | 152.34$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.27 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 11c | 144.97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 230 | 44.8%103 W · 127 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8817…cda8backed Yes | 43c | 142$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.5 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x518c…d366backed Yes | 27c | 132.69$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.45 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6548…9108backed Yes | 18c | 131.9$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.91 | 110 | 53.6%59 W · 51 L | +7.5wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bc…8c38backed No | 75c | 131.75$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.99 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbee8…15bebacked Yes | 28c | 125.49$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 14c | 120$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.55 | 42 | 16.7%7 W · 35 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 79c | 117$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.65 | 157 | 66.2%104 W · 53 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74dd…2131backed Yes | 12c | 114.38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 59 | 13.6%8 W · 51 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a2b…c3cbbacked Yes | 35c | 113.73$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 30cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda07…62a0backed Yes | 25c | 113.33$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.86 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 77c | 111.76$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.98 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d44…997dbacked Yes | 16c | 111.6$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 68c | 103.01$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 60c | 102$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.71 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34c1…1bb0backed No | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.55 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…4c65backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 69 | 60.9%42 W · 27 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd496…0ab0backed Yes | 28c | 99.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ccc…61dfbacked Yes | 24c | 99.19$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.79 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 13c | 95.84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 63 | 30.2%19 W · 44 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 18c | 95.71$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.45 | 136 | 46.3%63 W · 73 L | -10.5wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xef1b…764fbacked Yes | 21c | 95.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 27cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59ab…c0d2backed No | 74c | 94.91$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.38 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -3.6wins | -0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb80a…6163backed Yes | 16c | 94.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.38per pick | 29cpaid | +102.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 39c | 94.02$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.4 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…171fbacked Yes | 45c | 93.93$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.6 | 107 | 33.6%36 W · 71 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x919d…ce8bbacked No | 62c | 92.59$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.01 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.22per pick | 44cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 24c | 92.49$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.81 | 444 | 28.8%128 W · 316 L | -67.6wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 38c | 90.49$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 71c | 90.49$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.11 | 131 | 55.7%73 W · 58 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 74c | 90.11$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.8 | 343 | 54.8%188 W · 155 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 44c | 89.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +3.6wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc824…5e0bbacked Yes | 19c | 87.53$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.01 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed22…6450backed No | 62c | 85.46$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.76 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 78c | 82.65$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.77 | 271 | 43.5%118 W · 153 L | -21.4wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 43c | 81.77$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.48 | 77 | 41.6%32 W · 45 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9742…e412backed Yes | 25c | 80.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.19 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +74.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 79c | 80.53$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.91 | 186 | 62.4%116 W · 70 L | +13.0wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…395bbacked Yes | 20c | 79.16$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc057…0c9abacked Yes | 19c | 77.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x42cb…0abdbacked Yes | 27c | 76.5$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x733c…521bbacked Yes | 24c | 75.78$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc41d…c51dbacked Yes | 34c | 75.56$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.97 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 31c | 75$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.25 | 106 | 29.2%31 W · 75 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…2ee6backed Yes | 17c | 74.23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5cf1…7902backed Yes | 37c | 72.9$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 53c | 72.85$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | +6.1wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xab14…e786backed Yes | 15c | 72.84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 36cpaid | +144.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e9…f1ccbacked Yes | 50c | 72.54$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.27 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd052…d930backed Yes | 14c | 72.11$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 29c | 72$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.88 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on August 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C or below on August 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on August 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on August 3?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on August 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on August 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on August 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.