Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on August 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc42b1e375c3393b6f2747998e97504915d34df4e053ea92627ab0159838fa51c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,515
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,506
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,515 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 54c | 1,416$758 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$758.46 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes | 52c | 1,208$634 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$633.79 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes | 28c | 561.66$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.14 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 45c | 496.84$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.24 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4d…bb01backed No | 47c | 438.39$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.25 | 218 | 29.4%64 W · 154 L | +5.4wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4941…a2bebacked No | 71c | 421.98$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.98 | 124 | 50.8%63 W · 61 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 47c | 356.16$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.64 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 46c | 228.32$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.43 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 20c | 200.12$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.62 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed No | 46c | 200$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 44c | 178.88$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.98 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 74c | 174.4$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.25 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 57c | 171$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.47 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 53c | 137.21$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.13 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 46c | 136.75$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.35 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…8b5ebacked Yes | 33c | 136.37$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.94 | 141 | 51.8%73 W · 68 L | +10.3wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb59a…6ed2backed Yes | 8c | 130$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 56c | 127.43$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.36 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 52c | 124.25$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.16 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 47c | 121$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.13 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5548…9cc6backed Yes | 26c | 113.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.62 | 197 | 57.4%113 W · 84 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7353…b6c5backed Yes | 18c | 108.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.92 | 183 | 47%86 W · 97 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 56c | 107.14$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b5…e373backed Yes | 45c | 99.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 151 | 28.5%43 W · 108 L | -12.7wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe008…f7d3backed Yes | 13c | 99.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 134 | 23.1%31 W · 103 L | -8.5wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 47c | 96.78$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.26 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25ed…463ebacked Yes | 18c | 94.64$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.91 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…cafebacked Yes | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 204 | 52%106 W · 98 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed Yes | 20c | 82.85$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 55c | 82$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.78 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 47c | 80.17$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.49 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 56c | 78.05$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.28 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 50c | 69.44$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.72 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 59c | 65.14$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.59 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 72c | 60$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.96 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 47c | 53.19$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.19 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 37c | 51.95$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.27 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 58c | 51.9$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.8 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 55c | 51.16$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.02 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x304b…a619backed No | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 275 | 52%143 W · 132 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33e8…dc93backed No | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 239 | 41.4%99 W · 140 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b58…d734backed No | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 155 | 34.2%53 W · 102 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 51c | 47.68$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 43c | 41.53$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43eb…3d85backed No | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 47c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.2 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 51c | 38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.62 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 55c | 34.35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.46 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked No | 78c | 33.6$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.44 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 49c | 32.8$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.86 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 51c | 30.93$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.16 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 45c | 26.72$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.73 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 47c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb80c…827bbacked No | 58c | 23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.69 | 277 | 54.9%152 W · 125 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea0…85b3backed No | 56c | 22.72$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 50c | 22.14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.05 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe26b…16e6backed No | 52c | 20.97$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.06 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x307f…4012backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -17%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5f…08babacked Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -3.3wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed Yes | 56c | 17.86$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 68c | 17.18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 71c | 16.85$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.93 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 66c | 16.35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.52 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bfc…8d4fbacked No | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 95 | 73.7%70 W · 25 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on August 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on August 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on August 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on August 7?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C on August 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.