Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on August 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x93d0dde6aac243f135e0405f07e0d5b3ad84644ecbe2095d1e63ce9a655ff512
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,425
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,266
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,425 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 42c | 732.24$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.55 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4d…bb01backed Yes | 28c | 357.12$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.13 | 218 | 29.4%64 W · 154 L | +5.4wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 29c | 299$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.82 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 32c | 284.2$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.59 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 49c | 228.1$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.09 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 58c | 214$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.12 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed No | 8c | 209.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 70c | 184$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.63 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 63c | 172$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.16 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 62c | 160.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 61c | 142.2$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.16 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 8c | 140.88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 52c | 137.45$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.92 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 12c | 134.45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 25c | 108.65$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.15 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 27c | 105.06$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.22 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 58c | 100$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 58c | 100$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 47c | 98.01$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.1 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65ae…b8a8backed No | 53c | 93.56$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes | 58c | 92.75$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.98 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 70c | 83.1$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.54 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25ed…463ebacked No | 23c | 70.43$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.39 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5548…9cc6backed No | 45c | 69.57$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.46 | 197 | 57.4%113 W · 84 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked No | 44c | 69.14$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.42 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 16c | 67.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 43c | 62.79$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.79 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed No | 57c | 62.79$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.79 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 46c | 62.5$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.75 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 72c | 62.07$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.82 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed No | 46c | 57.5$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.51 | 402 | 65.9%265 W · 137 L | +31.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 61c | 52.45$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.09 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 24c | 52.02$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 39c | 51.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.07 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764a…83d3backed No | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3636…34c4backed No | 70c | 49.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.99 | 292 | 81.5%238 W · 54 L | +27.9wins | +0.10per pick | 72cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 64c | 47.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.29 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 55c | 46.88$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.1 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 49c | 46.85$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.71 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…c27cbacked Yes | 67c | 45.1$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.1 | 149 | 32.9%49 W · 100 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 44c | 45.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.02 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 30c | 41.81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67f4…df0fbacked No | 72c | 41.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 102 | 65.7%67 W · 35 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 72cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d03…6c9fbacked No | 50c | 40.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 68c | 40$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 71c | 37.06$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.42 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 33c | 34.29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.88 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39b4…fc14backed Yes | 47c | 32.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.08 | 203 | 47.8%97 W · 106 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 69c | 31.54$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc848…537bbacked Yes | 46c | 30.8$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.68 | 79 | 58.2%46 W · 33 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed No | 48c | 29.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7353…b6c5backed Yes | 67c | 29.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.58 | 183 | 47%86 W · 97 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked No | 75c | 28$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 375 | 41.6%156 W · 219 L | -52.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 42c | 25.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1555…e4dcbacked No | 77c | 24.69$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.01 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 75cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45c3…d5d9backed No | 48c | 21.48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c3a…8792backed Yes | 50c | 20.54$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.27 | 180 | 45.6%82 W · 98 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 66c | 18.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4653…fc2bbacked Yes | 62c | 17.55$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 70 | 61.4%43 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac22…363ebacked Yes | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 142 | 43.7%62 W · 80 L | -7.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…2ee6backed No | 69c | 14.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 335 | 50.4%169 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on August 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on August 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on August 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on August 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C on August 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.