Commodities · resolved market
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x655d32be018ba24bc8db5665636a6af61c6ea74a075fad62a3d001c1f0c75f9c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Downof Up, Down
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $124,443
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $104,151
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $124,443 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Down | 75c | 11,274$8,452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,821.82 | 938 | 40.2%377 W · 561 L | -69.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x11f5…5526backed Up | 5c | 10,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.57 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59db…2e36backed Up | 1c | 5,202$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.02 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Up | 1c | 4,900$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.73 | 95 | 6.3%6 W · 89 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa98…90bbbacked Up | 22c | 4,555$1,016 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,015.69 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c1b…63ddbacked Up | 5c | 4,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5a…0a4fbacked Up | 1c | 3,227$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 1cpaid | +666.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82e0…bcfdbacked Up | 26c | 3,215$836 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$836 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07d1…8ffabacked Up | 1c | 3,160$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.03 | 199 | 23.1%46 W · 153 L | +12.5wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Up | 2c | 2,930$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.04 | 210 | 11.9%25 W · 185 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1c9…6872backed Down | 74c | 2,735$2,036 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$698.64 | 79 | 60.8%48 W · 31 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae3…cd3bbacked Up | 5c | 2,329$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1ba…ddbfbacked Up | 1c | 2,000$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc31a…94f7backed Up | 14c | 1,984$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.04 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64ba…b7bfbacked Up | 22c | 1,850$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Up | 2c | 1,787$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.33 | 120 | 11.7%14 W · 106 L | +7.5wins | +0.06per pick | 5cpaid | +178.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e13…e968backed Down | 74c | 1,500$1,110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ba…f948backed Down | 71c | 1,471$1,044 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426.59 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c7b…d463backed Up | 2c | 1,429$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41f3…844ebacked Up | 27c | 1,262$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.89 | 307 | 38.8%119 W · 188 L | +20.1wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a02…ddaabacked Up | 12c | 866.84$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.27 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Up | 18c | 864.12$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.73 | 78 | 12.8%10 W · 68 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -69.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26e6…cc89backed Up | 2c | 836.77$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.07 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a3…c151backed Up | 5c | 825.6$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.28 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa9c…90d1backed Up | 26c | 752.3$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed Up | 8c | 600$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 75 | 26.7%20 W · 55 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaaa…6783backed Down | 72c | 521$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.88 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -17%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa40…9e37backed Up | 15c | 500$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c12…3d74backed Up | 23c | 500$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa901…d418backed Up | 12c | 500$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +4.0wins | +0.19per pick | 43cpaid | +59.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7ee4…d6c3backed Down | 73c | 356$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.12 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42ac…9447backed Up | 24c | 306.38$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa540…0b43backed Up | 17c | 240.33$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.09 | 1,277 | 24.3%310 W · 967 L | -58.2wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed Down | 74c | 205$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.3 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…216bbacked Down | 73c | 205$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.6 | 148 | 49.3%73 W · 75 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa99b…1211backed Up | 10c | 202.22$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.22 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6dc…12ecbacked Up | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 72 | 34.7%25 W · 47 L | -5.7wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2651…3471backed Up | 6c | 180.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 304 | 43.4%132 W · 172 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23d4…8afebacked Down | 73c | 167.8$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.31 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +129.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfce1…98e3backed Up | 26c | 156.96$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.49 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 29cpaid | -74%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6640…2ffebacked Up | 48c | 152.38$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.5wins | +0.42per pick | 42cpaid | +148.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x056b…5a03backed Up | 14c | 151.25$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.94 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 10cpaid | +124.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3185…ded8backed Up | 33c | 110.57$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.49 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 28cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d35…f929backed Up | 50c | 104.7$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.35 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.17per pick | 58cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x06ce…0b8bbacked Up | 26c | 104.44$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.15 | 88 | 44.3%39 W · 49 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Up | 48c | 104$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.92 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | -94.9wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f9…781bbacked Up | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc93b…9e73backed Down | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59d4…b745backed Up | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x66e0…b8f6backed Down | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x629b…b236backed Up | 22c | 99.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +118.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e68…826bbacked Up | 27c | 90$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7151…4404backed Up | 27c | 90$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df6…ac3bbacked Down | 74c | 82.29$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.74 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | +5.0wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe04a…5377backed Down | 76c | 78.95$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.95 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0af8…f961backed Up | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbada…d874backed Down | 78c | 52.09$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.46 | 150 | 56%84 W · 66 L | +19.8wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5192…df62backed Down | 78c | 51.79$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.39 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0d1…82b1backed Up | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -4.8wins | -0.28per pick | 52cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xeea2…4a48backed Down | 78c | 27.14$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x028d…feccbacked Down | 75c | 26.7$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.7 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x948a…50e4backed Down | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca6e…acfabacked Down | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0735…fe34backed Down | 72c | 18.37$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.14 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b5…e373backed Down | 72c | 17.41$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.87 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x125d…baf6backed Down | 76c | 16.64$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.