Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on August 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa70aefb16d26fe55699894847f52fb082239b8c854790f2d664be4bfd51b2d14
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,302
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,498
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,302 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 95 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 27c | 1,419$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,039.06 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa12d…4c1bbacked No | 49c | 898.91$444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$444.05 | 202 | 41.1%83 W · 119 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 42c | 673.2$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.18 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 46c | 455.15$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.16 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 73c | 342$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.66 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 59c | 303.53$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.59 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 43c | 279.97$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.68 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 72c | 259.99$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.43 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20d7…2485backed Yes | 30c | 256.63$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.64 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 34c | 238.71$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.19 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f4…3fdbbacked Yes | 41c | 234.65$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.45 | 273 | 35.9%98 W · 175 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 66c | 231.52$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.79 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 48c | 203.46$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.26 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfb…decbbacked Yes | 74c | 201.4$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.4 | 137 | 46%63 W · 74 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa755…6c5bbacked Yes | 34c | 199.46$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.02 | 125 | 30.4%38 W · 87 L | -8.4wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 70c | 198.7$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.3 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 20c | 195.42$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.18 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 47c | 174$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.18 | 439 | 32.8%144 W · 295 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 16c | 165.89$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.31 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 44c | 151.92$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.07 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes | 48c | 151$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.12 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 44c | 144.37$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.13 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 52c | 129.45$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.83 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 35c | 125$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.25 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa8…63a4backed Yes | 35c | 124.99$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.24 | 115 | 25.2%29 W · 86 L | -9.8wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 47c | 123.39$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.63 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08ef…e466backed No | 59c | 118.02$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.63 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 51c | 108.8$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.37 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 43c | 107.46$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.55 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 46c | 106$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.34 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 24c | 102.72$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.82 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed No | 59c | 100$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 417 | 52%217 W · 200 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b5…e373backed Yes | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 151 | 28.5%43 W · 108 L | -12.7wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 17c | 98.68$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed No | 56c | 98.57$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.2 | 371 | 50.4%187 W · 184 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 24c | 98.05$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.72 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8710…f9c7backed Yes | 44c | 97$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.32 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 31c | 96.96$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.03 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 29c | 95$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.45 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6e…5848backed Yes | 44c | 94.76$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.64 | 241 | 41.1%99 W · 142 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 72c | 93.03$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.31 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcca9…f47cbacked Yes | 37c | 89.41$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.41 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 34c | 87.91$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.24 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 35c | 87.03$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.57 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 71c | 80.83$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.43 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…400dbacked No | 40c | 79.97$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.39 | 348 | 31%108 W · 240 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 59c | 76.78$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.83 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x107c…ab15backed Yes | 42c | 72.75$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.99 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 69.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 36c | 69.16$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.89 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 73c | 68$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.64 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 69c | 65$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.9 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes | 26c | 64.3$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.5 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c90…17efbacked Yes | 49c | 63$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.13 | 288 | 47.2%136 W · 152 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed29…3848backed Yes | 47c | 61.97$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.68 | 50 | 28%14 W · 36 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eeb…b6bdbacked Yes | 29c | 61.44$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.57 | 88 | 30.7%27 W · 61 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 74c | 61.24$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.14 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 49c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.76 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 33c | 59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 28c | 53.57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.57 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 49c | 52.84$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.05 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked No | 52c | 52.43$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.26 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32a7…a84bbacked Yes | 51c | 50.14$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 207 | 39.1%81 W · 126 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 74c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf361…08f6backed Yes | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | +4.4wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 62c | 47$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.99 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 61c | 45.9$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.87 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x304b…a619backed No | 74c | 45.51$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.68 | 275 | 52%143 W · 132 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 32c | 40.15$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.04 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaebb…46e2backed No | 55c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.98 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f0…640cbacked Yes | 29c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.4 | 68 | 27.9%19 W · 49 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0e1…4995backed No | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 41c | 39.73$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.56 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb00e…43b5backed No | 57c | 37$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.09 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 39c | 36.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.32 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 39c | 36.82$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 49c | 36.6$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.93 | 493 | 59%291 W · 202 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes | 28c | 35.33$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.28 | 308 | 34.4%106 W · 202 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 52c | 34.12$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.91 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 54c | 33.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2248…53d0backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 44c | 31.15$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c03…9ef9backed Yes | 44c | 29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.24 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 46c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e77…d01bbacked Yes | 42c | 24.78$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.3 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8688…27fbbacked Yes | 45c | 24.6$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.62 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +4.2wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb924…0803backed No | 73c | 24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.52 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4fb…32c8backed Yes | 77c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.83 | 91 | 46.2%42 W · 49 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b18…efaebacked No | 73c | 20.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.59 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 401 | 62.6%251 W · 150 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 397 | 68.8%273 W · 124 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1643…e8e1backed No | 51c | 19.8$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.15per pick | 60cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 61c | 18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on August 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on August 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.