Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on August 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x821b235f73aa2da16b625f1ede68f7cfd0a96602cba495620521260f7d7681bc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,067
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,447
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,067 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 90 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 47c | 1,154$538 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$537.62 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda33…daccbacked No | 54c | 726$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.96 | 58 | 34.5%20 W · 38 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfb…decbbacked Yes | 39c | 609.53$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 137 | 46%63 W · 74 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 25c | 400$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.25 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 58c | 364.69$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.32 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 69c | 333.72$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.19 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6e…5848backed Yes | 54c | 287.34$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.09 | 241 | 41.1%99 W · 142 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 50c | 254.09$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.35 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8547…39abbacked No | 53c | 236.74$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111 | 148 | 33.1%49 W · 99 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20d7…2485backed Yes | 32c | 232.54$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.8 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa755…6c5bbacked Yes | 51c | 229.13$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.1 | 125 | 30.4%38 W · 87 L | -8.4wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x463f…f78ebacked Yes | 46c | 214.48$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.01 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 63c | 168.23$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.59 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 30c | 165$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.68 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 17c | 155$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.04 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa8…63a4backed Yes | 17c | 155$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.9 | 115 | 25.2%29 W · 86 L | -9.8wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 29c | 148.69$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.52 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 58c | 145.5$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.69 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 65c | 138.94$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.2 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f4…3fdbbacked No | 80c | 132$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.67 | 273 | 35.9%98 W · 175 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 52c | 131.1$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.1 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 80c | 129.45$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.96 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2bc…1485backed Yes | 45c | 117.63$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.18 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1a…dc53backed Yes | 36c | 111.84$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.22 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -72.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 66c | 102.28$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.78 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa282…8700backed Yes | 45c | 101.78$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.8 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4934…6d71backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 56 | 57.1%32 W · 24 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x001c…e5edbacked Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c3a…8792backed No | 55c | 99.13$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.61 | 180 | 45.6%82 W · 98 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb56c…30f3backed Yes | 24c | 98.45$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.96 | 104 | 55.8%58 W · 46 L | +10.4wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9016…e4babacked Yes | 58c | 92.53$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.35 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +77.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 65c | 92.17$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.37 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xcca9…f47cbacked Yes | 49c | 89.18$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.4 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x811a…9a3cbacked Yes | 51c | 87.1$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.38 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 35c | 84.48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.49 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 28c | 79.13$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.22 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 29c | 77.58$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32a7…a84bbacked Yes | 34c | 76.69$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.23 | 207 | 39.1%81 W · 126 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 60c | 70.94$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.24 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 69.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.99 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca1…fc25backed Yes | 46c | 69.56$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.17 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x107c…ab15backed Yes | 43c | 66.25$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.79 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 46c | 65.64$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.6 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8f…13c3backed Yes | 41c | 65.22$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 58c | 63.68$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.76 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 54c | 62.41$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.75 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes | 34c | 61.56$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.78 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf13b…9ef9backed Yes | 48c | 60.51$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.18 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked Yes | 19c | 59.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbc5…52b0backed Yes | 46c | 56.55$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda04…6c48backed Yes | 25c | 55.15$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.4wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf361…08f6backed Yes | 31c | 55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | +4.4wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed Yes | 46c | 54$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.84 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 60c | 53.91$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44ec…082cbacked Yes | 31c | 53.82$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 70 | 35.7%25 W · 45 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed No | 56c | 52.68$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.18 | 385 | 60.3%232 W · 153 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x430b…f9e0backed Yes | 57c | 52.35$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.84 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x567a…b24cbacked Yes | 24c | 51.79$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 129 | 27.1%35 W · 94 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 58c | 48.96$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.62 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 63c | 44.59$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.3 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b46…944cbacked Yes | 49c | 43.69$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.24 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 31cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 54c | 43.59$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.86 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed No | 51c | 43.57$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.35 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 63c | 42.13$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaebb…46e2backed No | 61c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.56 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f6…0e74backed No | 29c | 39.39$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.97 | 198 | 61.1%121 W · 77 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 66c | 39.25$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 56c | 36.72$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.14 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c90…17efbacked No | 71c | 36.33$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.7 | 288 | 47.2%136 W · 152 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d82…9e66backed Yes | 32c | 36.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 120 | 46.7%56 W · 64 L | +8.8wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 64c | 35.69$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.86 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 68c | 35.2$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.11 | 493 | 59%291 W · 202 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes | 43c | 35.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 299 | 48.2%144 W · 155 L | +28.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 74c | 35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 58c | 34.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.53 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4941…a2bebacked Yes | 58c | 32.92$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.22 | 124 | 50.8%63 W · 61 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64d4…888ebacked Yes | 48c | 31.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.09 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc6…22a6backed Yes | 47c | 31.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 58c | 30.01$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x550e…94dbbacked Yes | 39c | 29.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe188…c1d0backed No | 68c | 25.07$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.07 | 78 | 56.4%44 W · 34 L | +7.9wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +22%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 76c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.9 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 61c | 24.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b2f…d29ebacked Yes | 49c | 24.06$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 69c | 23.02$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.17 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf3b…880abacked Yes | 53c | 22.81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b18…efaebacked No | 58c | 20.23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 75c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.42 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 79c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.52 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on August 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on August 18?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on August 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.