Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on August 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4211c87b7fe0f43d94fef4199274c31d3405bf11e21c6b56a273fa6381e98fcc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,997
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,439
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,997 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 107 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 68c | 694.76$474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.79 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbee8…15bebacked Yes | 36c | 632$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 84 | 21.4%18 W · 66 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 5c | 550.48$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec3…a081backed Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 175 | 24.6%43 W · 132 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 59c | 495.8$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.41 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2cad…c773backed Yes | 21c | 385.64$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.65 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1201…005bbacked Yes | 6c | 346.53$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.74 | 167 | 9.6%16 W · 151 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x567a…b24cbacked Yes | 28c | 328.48$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.17 | 129 | 27.1%35 W · 94 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea2…665abacked Yes | 39c | 300$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 394 | 27.4%108 W · 286 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 39c | 297.42$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.7 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 61c | 284$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.59 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf12d…eeafbacked No | 75c | 266.39$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.11 | 167 | 33.5%56 W · 111 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 30c | 266.16$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.73 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 33c | 261$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.8 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 34c | 219.26$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.55 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0036…df65backed No | 68c | 219.09$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.35 | 197 | 37.1%73 W · 124 L | -10.3wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 34c | 214.15$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.84 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 61c | 208.34$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.05 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c55…ddfbbacked Yes | 39c | 194.16$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.24 | 117 | 24.8%29 W · 88 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 67c | 182.91$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.73 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 63c | 176.22$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.5 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 65c | 175.07$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.95 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbda1…827fbacked Yes | 39c | 168.21$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 309 | 19.4%60 W · 249 L | -17.1wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 11c | 167.84$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.37 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeec8…b2c9backed Yes | 32c | 164.75$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 40 | 17.5%7 W · 33 L | -5.0wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed No | 67c | 164$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.25 | 350 | 63.1%221 W · 129 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf225…42e0backed Yes | 8c | 151.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 119 | 47.1%56 W · 63 L | +8.2wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 63c | 144.28$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.99 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 61c | 144$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.99 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06da…af33backed Yes | 27c | 140$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.6 | 253 | 32%81 W · 172 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 63c | 129.43$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.74 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…8e3cbacked No | 76c | 122.76$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.99 | 78 | 62.8%49 W · 29 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0754…a576backed Yes | 36c | 119.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.8 | 164 | 37.2%61 W · 103 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b9a…0f66backed Yes | 41c | 119.57$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.5 | 111 | 46.8%52 W · 59 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 41c | 119.06$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.03 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9210…70a4backed Yes | 42c | 118.42$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.74 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 37c | 116.55$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.13 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12f5…5ac4backed Yes | 34c | 111.9$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.87 | 112 | 40.2%45 W · 67 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 69c | 108$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.44 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 67c | 106.49$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.65 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 36c | 100.01$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe4…4841backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56e2…4a79backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…9eedbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 157 | 17.2%27 W · 130 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x276a…d445backed Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 46 | 32.6%15 W · 31 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -20%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb7bd…68b0backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 59 | 37.3%22 W · 37 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b5…e373backed Yes | 34c | 99.98$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.99 | 151 | 28.5%43 W · 108 L | -12.7wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4572…5e94backed Yes | 30c | 99.58$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 64c | 97$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.65 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb20f…5737backed Yes | 31c | 95.81$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 55 | 25.5%14 W · 41 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 34c | 94.86$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.02 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 33c | 90.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.82 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 67c | 90$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.85 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 70c | 86$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.4 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 27c | 84.48$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.45 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c1c…25f0backed Yes | 24c | 82.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 92 | 39.1%36 W · 56 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 64c | 81.27$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.32 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 36c | 76.93$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 36c | 75.86$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8eea…e285backed Yes | 18c | 75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 410 | 46.8%192 W · 218 L | +57.4wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2fea…f2c9backed Yes | 27c | 73.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7610…e332backed No | 64c | 73.42$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.69 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 34c | 70.27$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.89 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 37c | 70$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.81 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e6f…528cbacked Yes | 34c | 68.11$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 60c | 65.4$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.16 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 35c | 63.95$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.62 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf216…4844backed Yes | 33c | 58.05$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 272 | 46.3%126 W · 146 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x304b…a619backed Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 275 | 52%143 W · 132 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0253…bcadbacked Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f5…8fd4backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 100 | 42%42 W · 58 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8192…871ebacked Yes | 40c | 49.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.04 | 77 | 49.4%38 W · 39 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e90…c892backed Yes | 42c | 45.45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.09 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 72c | 44.33$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.58 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked Yes | 34c | 42.68$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 33c | 41.76$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa99…29afbacked No | 60c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | -4.7wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed Yes | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 352 | 32.7%115 W · 237 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6edc…f4fcbacked Yes | 40c | 39.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44fd…8223backed Yes | 38c | 39.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 32c | 39.14$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 73c | 37.81$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.02 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5e7…c727backed Yes | 35c | 37.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 67c | 37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.21 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…3017backed No | 64c | 31.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.59 | 152 | 58.6%89 W · 63 L | -8.5wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93ec…17c6backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 65c | 30.58$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.82 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 79c | 30.51$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.26 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x07e9…15dcbacked No | 73c | 30.11$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.15 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 37c | 29.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 69c | 28.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.78 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 59c | 27.07$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x097c…630abacked No | 69c | 26.09$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.09 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xced2…0d6bbacked No | 64c | 25.8$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.27 | 156 | 69.2%108 W · 48 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33ab…149bbacked No | 67c | 25.07$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.27 | 205 | 69.8%143 W · 62 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 69c | 24.04$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.45 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 73c | 23.76$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10a6…9c59backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb814…dd31backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 111 | 54.1%60 W · 51 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on August 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on August 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on August 3?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on August 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C on August 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 33°C on August 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C or higher on August 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.