TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on August 3?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$28,780
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$29,499

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,780 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 171 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6ff2…f140backed Yes32c2,308$745 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$744.61,25025.4%317 W · 933 L+57.9wins+0.05per pick21cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x35fb…8511backed Yes40c1,656$669 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$668.5125135.1%88 W · 163 L+4.6wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd881…40cdbacked No63c1,151$724 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$426.857251.4%37 W · 35 L-6.6wins-0.09per pick60cpaid-12.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3500…07f0backed Yes44c1,073$473 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$472.9815527.7%43 W · 112 L-10.8wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-34.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No67c891.06$598 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$292.768,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes32c799.7$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258.910,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes2c733.99$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.042,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No54c690.61$375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$315.824,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd23f…94a1backed No65c686.77$447 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$240.262,61759.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L-41.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes8c639.99$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.43,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No68c590.15$399 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.964,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbee8…15bebacked Yes38c540.8$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2078421.4%18 W · 66 L+0.3wins0.00per pick21cpaid-45.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed No60c402.48$241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.582,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No65c395.32$259 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.791,58661.9%982 W · 604 L+20.2wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe241…5b42backed No65c384.61$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.618756.3%49 W · 38 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No62c380.98$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.194,11747.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L-158.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc5ee…807abacked No67c379.9$255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.37955.6%5 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.17per pick73cpaid-24.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb902…06d8backed Yes33c305.15$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1007159.2%42 W · 29 L+6.9wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+20.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9ea2…665abacked Yes35c300$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10539427.4%108 W · 286 L0.0wins0.00per pick27cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda07…62a0backed Yes35c283.1$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.3220133.3%67 W · 134 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-12.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x567a…b24cbacked Yes36c268.86$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.7612927.1%35 W · 94 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-16%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca75…0a64backed No57c240$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.81,01058.1%587 W · 423 L-34.0wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-4.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed No66c233.94$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.5453925.6%138 W · 401 L-18.4wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-40.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No66c232.6$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$783,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc6d8…b90dbacked No52c223.62$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.3683459.8%499 W · 335 L+27.5wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x23ed…767dbacked Yes46c222.23$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.8450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+24.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No70c209.47$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.124,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c55…ddfbbacked Yes42c209.34$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.411724.8%29 W · 88 L-4.4wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-25.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed Yes37c206.36$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.353,06553.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L-97.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed No69c205.16$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.062,31157.7%1,334 W · 977 L-19.0wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb3dd…81b2backed Yes34c200$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$684431.8%14 W · 30 L-0.2wins0.00per pick32cpaid-8.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No65c199.99$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.394,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1fd2…b7f8backed Yes47c198$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.5227047%127 W · 143 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No78c193$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.15,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7aed…df39backed No63c192$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.7935063.1%221 W · 129 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a88…f471backed Yes34c188.3$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.4329732.3%96 W · 201 L+0.9wins0.00per pick32cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x34f5…edd9backed No55c184.11$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.381070%7 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.16per pick54cpaid+81.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9a15…bf31backed No55c181.82$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.82966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+8.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No61c180.18$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.541,92853.5%1,032 W · 896 L+39.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0036…df65backed No58c179.11$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.9719737.1%73 W · 124 L-10.3wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-17.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf12d…eeafbacked Yes40c175.98$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.9116733.5%56 W · 111 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+3.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes35c175$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.2595933.5%321 W · 638 L+28.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2cad…c773backed No65c157.29$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.36750.7%34 W · 33 L+4.2wins+0.06per pick45cpaid-19.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xff74…5de4backed Yes35c153.18$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.3365934.1%225 W · 434 L+36.6wins+0.06per pick29cpaid+18.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb581…b496backed Yes66c152.5$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1005637.5%21 W · 35 L-7.8wins-0.14per pick51cpaid-41.9%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No38c151.28$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.74,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No67c147.32$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.145,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No56c143.52$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.729,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No62c141.92$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.0979947.9%383 W · 416 L-24.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-20%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x06da…af33backed Yes26c139.98$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3725332%81 W · 172 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick31cpaid+4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5eda…d453backed Yes23c131.9$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.151643.8%7 W · 9 L+1.8wins+0.11per pick33cpaid+19.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3f0b…d571backed No58c123.84$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.662,22549.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L-12.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b9a…0f66backed Yes32c122.6$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.511146.8%52 W · 59 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae22…8794backed Yes19c121.37$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.1446232.9%152 W · 310 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick32cpaid+7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd90e…03b6backed No58c120$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$501,14849.6%569 W · 579 L-34.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes36c118.82$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.131,35930.2%411 W · 948 L-92.9wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-22.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x9210…70a4backed Yes32c116.94$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.373429.4%10 W · 24 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick34cpaid+16.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x44c1…17abbacked Yes43c116.9$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502740.7%11 W · 16 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-19.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4572…5e94backed No43c115.98$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.981050%5 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-17.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x518c…d366backed Yes38c115.78$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.618637.2%32 W · 54 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-9.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No56c115.29$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.36,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes38c105.66$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.2685049.8%423 W · 427 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a5a…b6c6backed No74c104.48$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.417945.6%36 W · 43 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-15.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked No54c103.96$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.774,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes39c103.01$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4061249.5%303 W · 309 L+30.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8845…360ebacked No67c102.71$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.8316935.5%60 W · 109 L-34.5wins-0.20per pick56cpaid-36.4%equal weight30-0.18 edge/pick
0xaddf…b8febacked No59c101.69$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.6928666.8%191 W · 95 L+9.1wins+0.03per pick64cpaid+0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb98b…7e18backed Yes35c100$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35110%0 W · 11 L-1.9wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x56e2…4a79backed Yes36c100$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$362630.8%8 W · 18 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick31cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d69…7a63backed No69c100$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.51,07554.8%589 W · 486 L-17.0wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc6e2…06f4backed Yes34c100$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3418449.5%91 W · 93 L-4.6wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-4.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd251…4d37backed Yes54c100$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$541,69742.4%720 W · 977 L+56.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes51c93.77$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.613,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0081…947bbacked No55c90.99$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.9531649.7%157 W · 159 L+17.5wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-3.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x268f…bbd7backed Yes34c90.91$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.919938.4%38 W · 61 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xddc3…000bbacked No66c90.91$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.919832.7%32 W · 66 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-1.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed No70c90.67$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.292,09357.1%1,196 W · 897 L+71.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No57c90$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.63,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes42c85.29$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.23,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No64c84$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.285,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8eea…e285backed Yes55c81.61$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.6941046.8%192 W · 218 L+57.4wins+0.14per pick33cpaid+58.9%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x180e…29dfbacked Yes33c80.37$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.5250860.4%307 W · 201 L+18.3wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x655c…4420backed No68c78$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.9689557.2%512 W · 383 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc651…895bbacked Yes14c75$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.651833.3%6 W · 12 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick37cpaid+22.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes26c73.47$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.913,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1096…a162backed Yes33c73$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.0947538.1%181 W · 294 L+15.9wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes32c70$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.474338.2%284 W · 459 L+17.8wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf9cc…59abbacked No58c69.21$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.2168867.2%462 W · 226 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes42c68.26$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.912,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No67c67.18$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.189,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb7bd…68b0backed Yes42c62.46$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.235937.3%22 W · 37 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick39cpaid+7.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No48c61.92$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3212,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf333…ba41backed Yes40c61.75$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.786949.8%433 W · 436 L-24.0wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xca28…ceb2backed Yes45c60$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2713637.5%51 W · 85 L-0.1wins0.00per pick38cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes40c60$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242,67430%803 W · 1,871 L+5.4wins0.00per pick30cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f3e…5337backed No67c58.7$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.3781848.5%397 W · 421 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x35c4…d144backed No45c58.66$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.141,25562.5%785 W · 470 L+99.5wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+16.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x234c…90dbbacked Yes35c57.14$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2058138.9%226 W · 355 L+10.9wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f99…6734backed No66c56.64$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.2654853.1%291 W · 257 L-28.7wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-12.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x549c…100abacked Yes34c56.32$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.1512438.7%48 W · 76 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.