Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on August 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc866b58c2103fb1bde193ae2455d2acd178f24869928e6c93426890c2abc02dd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,780
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,499
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,780 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 171 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 32c | 2,308$745 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$744.6 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35fb…8511backed Yes | 40c | 1,656$669 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$668.51 | 251 | 35.1%88 W · 163 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd881…40cdbacked No | 63c | 1,151$724 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426.85 | 72 | 51.4%37 W · 35 L | -6.6wins | -0.09per pick | 60cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3500…07f0backed Yes | 44c | 1,073$473 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$472.98 | 155 | 27.7%43 W · 112 L | -10.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 67c | 891.06$598 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.76 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 32c | 799.7$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.9 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 2c | 733.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 54c | 690.61$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.82 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 65c | 686.77$447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.26 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 8c | 639.99$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.4 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 68c | 590.15$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.96 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbee8…15bebacked Yes | 38c | 540.8$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207 | 84 | 21.4%18 W · 66 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 60c | 402.48$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.58 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 65c | 395.32$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.79 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe241…5b42backed No | 65c | 384.61$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.61 | 87 | 56.3%49 W · 38 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 62c | 380.98$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.19 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ee…807abacked No | 67c | 379.9$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.37 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 73cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb902…06d8backed Yes | 33c | 305.15$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 71 | 59.2%42 W · 29 L | +6.9wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea2…665abacked Yes | 35c | 300$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 394 | 27.4%108 W · 286 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda07…62a0backed Yes | 35c | 283.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.32 | 201 | 33.3%67 W · 134 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x567a…b24cbacked Yes | 36c | 268.86$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.76 | 129 | 27.1%35 W · 94 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 57c | 240$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.8 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 66c | 233.94$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.54 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 66c | 232.6$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 52c | 223.62$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.36 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23ed…767dbacked Yes | 46c | 222.23$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 70c | 209.47$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.12 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c55…ddfbbacked Yes | 42c | 209.34$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.4 | 117 | 24.8%29 W · 88 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 37c | 206.36$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.35 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 69c | 205.16$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.06 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3dd…81b2backed Yes | 34c | 200$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 44 | 31.8%14 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 65c | 199.99$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.39 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd2…b7f8backed Yes | 47c | 198$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.52 | 270 | 47%127 W · 143 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 78c | 193$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.1 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed No | 63c | 192$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.79 | 350 | 63.1%221 W · 129 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a88…f471backed Yes | 34c | 188.3$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.43 | 297 | 32.3%96 W · 201 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34f5…edd9backed No | 55c | 184.11$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.38 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 54cpaid | +81.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a15…bf31backed No | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 61c | 180.18$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.54 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0036…df65backed No | 58c | 179.11$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.97 | 197 | 37.1%73 W · 124 L | -10.3wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf12d…eeafbacked Yes | 40c | 175.98$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.91 | 167 | 33.5%56 W · 111 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 35c | 175$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.25 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cad…c773backed No | 65c | 157.29$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.3 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 35c | 153.18$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.33 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…b496backed Yes | 66c | 152.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 56 | 37.5%21 W · 35 L | -7.8wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 38c | 151.28$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.7 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 67c | 147.32$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.14 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 56c | 143.52$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.72 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 62c | 141.92$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.09 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06da…af33backed Yes | 26c | 139.98$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 253 | 32%81 W · 172 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5eda…d453backed Yes | 23c | 131.9$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.15 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 58c | 123.84$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.66 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b9a…0f66backed Yes | 32c | 122.6$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 111 | 46.8%52 W · 59 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 19c | 121.37$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.14 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 58c | 120$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 36c | 118.82$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.13 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9210…70a4backed Yes | 32c | 116.94$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.37 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…17abbacked Yes | 43c | 116.9$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4572…5e94backed No | 43c | 115.98$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.98 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x518c…d366backed Yes | 38c | 115.78$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.61 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 56c | 115.29$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.3 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 38c | 105.66$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.26 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5a…b6c6backed No | 74c | 104.48$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.41 | 79 | 45.6%36 W · 43 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 54c | 103.96$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.77 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 39c | 103.01$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8845…360ebacked No | 67c | 102.71$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.83 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | -34.5wins | -0.20per pick | 56cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 30-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xaddf…b8febacked No | 59c | 101.69$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.69 | 286 | 66.8%191 W · 95 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb98b…7e18backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x56e2…4a79backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e2…06f4backed Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 184 | 49.5%91 W · 93 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 51c | 93.77$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.61 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0081…947bbacked No | 55c | 90.99$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.95 | 316 | 49.7%157 W · 159 L | +17.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x268f…bbd7backed Yes | 34c | 90.91$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.91 | 99 | 38.4%38 W · 61 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddc3…000bbacked No | 66c | 90.91$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.91 | 98 | 32.7%32 W · 66 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 70c | 90.67$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.29 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 57c | 90$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.6 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 42c | 85.29$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.2 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 64c | 84$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.28 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8eea…e285backed Yes | 55c | 81.61$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.69 | 410 | 46.8%192 W · 218 L | +57.4wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked Yes | 33c | 80.37$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.52 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 68c | 78$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.96 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc651…895bbacked Yes | 14c | 75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 26c | 73.47$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.91 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 33c | 73$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.09 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 32c | 70$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 58c | 69.21$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.21 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 42c | 68.26$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.9 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 67c | 67.18$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.18 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7bd…68b0backed Yes | 42c | 62.46$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.23 | 59 | 37.3%22 W · 37 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 48c | 61.92$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 40c | 61.75$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.7 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca28…ceb2backed Yes | 45c | 60$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 136 | 37.5%51 W · 85 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 40c | 60$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed No | 67c | 58.7$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.37 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 45c | 58.66$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.14 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 66c | 56.64$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.26 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x549c…100abacked Yes | 34c | 56.32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.15 | 124 | 38.7%48 W · 76 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on August 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on August 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on August 3?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on August 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C on August 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 33°C on August 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C or higher on August 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.