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Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on August 3?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$75,888
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$76,758

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $75,888 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 95 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet's whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbc8c…273fbacked No0c39,221$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401711.8%2 W · 15 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick8cpaid-80.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes9c1,409$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,276.1710,95237.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L+432.6wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+16%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6ff2…f140backed Yes14c1,369$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,176.011,25025.4%317 W · 933 L+57.9wins+0.05per pick21cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbee8…15bebacked Yes19c1,291$249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,041.358421.4%18 W · 66 L+0.3wins0.00per pick21cpaid-45.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes19c1,052$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$852.270645.8%323 W · 383 L+16.4wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed No5c879.99$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.93,93923.2%913 W · 3,026 L+125.2wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf12d…eeafbacked Yes39c698.98$275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$424.1516733.5%56 W · 111 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+3.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No50c694.22$348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$347.94,31353.6%2,311 W · 2,002 L+158.3wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-3.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x35fb…8511backed Yes18c648.32$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$532.5126935.7%96 W · 173 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes15c635.8$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$539.798,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No19c632.74$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.614,44253.7%2,387 W · 2,055 L-17.6wins0.00per pick54cpaid-11.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8bdc…a0babacked No32c620.89$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2018068.8%55 W · 25 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick72cpaid-5.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9ea2…665abacked Yes15c620.24$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$527.241927%113 W · 306 L-1.8wins0.00per pick27cpaid-7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3500…07f0backed Yes20c536.11$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$428.6415527.7%43 W · 112 L-10.8wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-34.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xed29…3848backed Yes14c519.62$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$449.336131.1%19 W · 42 L+3.4wins+0.06per pick26cpaid+45.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7331…bc39backed Yes14c505.3$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$436.069425.5%24 W · 70 L+5.6wins+0.06per pick20cpaid+30.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x34c1…1bb0backed Yes57c425$243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.859652.1%50 W · 46 L+9.1wins+0.10per pick43cpaid+33.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x5fe7…1ea9backed Yes49c407.69$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.6916669.9%116 W · 50 L+24.5wins+0.15per pick55cpaid+15.1%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x13f3…0becbacked Yes18c338.62$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$278.621145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+31.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes12c335.32$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$293.944,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xf73f…ee53backed Yes9c334.22$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$304.143,06433.5%1,027 W · 2,037 L+13.2wins0.00per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa834…1c25backed Yes16c333.02$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$278.881,04834.5%362 W · 686 L+24.7wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7aed…df39backed No32c306$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.9535063.1%221 W · 129 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No60c302.94$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.316,90553.1%3,666 W · 3,239 L+422.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x229c…b966backed No11c299.93$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.991,93638.1%737 W · 1,199 L+296.8wins+0.15per pick23cpaid+23.4%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked Yes5c298.67$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$284.822,36220.6%486 W · 1,876 L-63.1wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-26.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed Yes12c272.63$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$238.7456726.1%148 W · 419 L-20.1wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-40%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x06da…af33backed Yes15c259.98$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221.7825332%81 W · 172 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick31cpaid+4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda6e…af49backed Yes15c229.81$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.03650%3 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+56.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb3dd…81b2backed Yes17c219.48$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.564531.1%14 W · 31 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-10.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x518c…d366backed Yes14c209.14$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.589037.8%34 W · 56 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-10%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda07…62a0backed Yes16c209.13$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.5720133.3%67 W · 134 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-12.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No50c193$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.585,83660%3,502 W · 2,334 L-112.4wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xde9c…e014backed Yes24c180$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.0625839.9%103 W · 155 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb7bd…68b0backed No55c175$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.16535.4%23 W · 42 L-3.1wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-0.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes65c175$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.7896733.3%322 W · 645 L+27.8wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-5.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a97…395bbacked Yes18c156.01$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.5933628.9%97 W · 239 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6961…511bbacked No45c153.3$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.194461.4%27 W · 17 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick66cpaid-7.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes12c144.85$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.931,42131.1%442 W · 979 L-93.8wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-21.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2349…1646backed No20c140$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.550661.3%310 W · 196 L+42.9wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+10.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2b40…ced4backed No25c139.9$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.951,01451.6%523 W · 491 L+108.5wins+0.11per pick41cpaid+9.9%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked No11c132.79$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.132,22659.1%1,316 W · 910 L+110.0wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4572…5e94backed No80c125.12$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001050%5 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-17.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed Yes16c124.89$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.113,20153.6%1,716 W · 1,485 L-101.7wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2cad…c773backed Yes71c124.47$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.588956.2%50 W · 39 L+5.7wins+0.06per pick50cpaid-13.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4e5c…d892backed Yes12c121.2$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.2357744.9%259 W · 318 L+37.6wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+12.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc15c…67aabacked Yes14c120.89$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.02742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.12per pick31cpaid+50.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No17c117$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.891,45152.3%759 W · 692 L-19.0wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-9.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0de2…1998backed Yes12c113.15$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.52540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick45cpaid+99.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb58…407abacked Yes13c112.69$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.52,42426.2%636 W · 1,788 L+18.0wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9210…70a4backed Yes10c106$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.193429.4%10 W · 24 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick34cpaid+16.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfa01…9eedbacked Yes10c100$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9015717.2%27 W · 130 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd251…4d37backed Yes18c100$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$821,85842.7%793 W · 1,065 L+50.9wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+10.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes39c99.99$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.7312,97520.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L-2,698.0wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-65.3%equal weight27-0.21 edge/pick
0x1fc9…8b5ebacked Yes32c97.99$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.2516347.9%78 W · 85 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+2.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5a88…f471backed Yes11c94.15$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.4129832.2%96 W · 202 L+0.5wins0.00per pick32cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x56e2…4a79backed Yes15c87$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.982630.8%8 W · 18 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick31cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7318…3ce0backed Yes13c84$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.081127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.11per pick38cpaid+8.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb54e…b2a7backed No79c79.85$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.0814552.4%76 W · 69 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1096…a162backed Yes13c78.99$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.7254738.6%211 W · 336 L+20.2wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+8.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xce07…5c3cbacked Yes18c78.98$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.531062.6%194 W · 116 L+38.4wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+33.3%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x0036…df65backed Yes17c78$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.9220736.7%76 W · 131 L-13.0wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-19.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed No20c77.52$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.772,29559.3%1,360 W · 935 L+118.2wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+1.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbb62…d14fbacked Yes26c70$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.55050%25 W · 25 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbda1…827fbacked Yes74c67.99$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1831119.6%61 W · 250 L-16.5wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-49.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa967…79a5backed No26c54.85$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.218050%40 W · 40 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-3.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5e50…11cdbacked Yes73c54.73$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.731384.6%11 W · 2 L+4.1wins+0.31per pick53cpaid+48.3%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xc0ad…2f42backed Yes21c52.43$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.571040%4 W · 6 L+2.0wins+0.20per pick20cpaid+56.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xac64…866ebacked No23c52.41$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.9481457.5%468 W · 346 L-0.1wins0.00per pick58cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c55…ddfbbacked Yes20c50$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4011724.8%29 W · 88 L-4.4wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-25.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3653…ef74backed No51c48.22$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.452,28657.3%1,309 W · 977 L+69.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcb32…79aabacked No37c48.13$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.661,24461.7%767 W · 477 L+25.6wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9edd…013cbacked Yes66c45.61$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.612766.7%18 W · 9 L+2.5wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+4.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed No27c40.64$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.782,25458.2%1,311 W · 943 L+84.7wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-0.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7bbe…b95ebacked No54c40.34$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.7845167%302 W · 149 L+39.9wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+13.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4184…c863backed No80c40$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.998651.1%504 W · 482 L-49.2wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-14.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2e1f…8fdebacked No28c39.99$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111,17734.9%411 W · 766 L+29.9wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed Yes57c38.77$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.542,25456.9%1,283 W · 971 L+69.5wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed No41c38.28$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.682,23356%1,250 W · 983 L+47.6wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed No58c38.21$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.022,25057%1,282 W · 968 L+65.2wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9b58…3550backed Yes35c34.29$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.29933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.12per pick46cpaid-32.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No77c32$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.645,19368.3%3,546 W · 1,647 L+70.8wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x142a…a44abacked No37c30$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.9520145.3%91 W · 110 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No54c30$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.22,69147.5%1,278 W · 1,413 L+48.6wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb501…9a53backed No46c29.99$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.7217536%63 W · 112 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+8.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed No41c28.5$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.562,22356.1%1,247 W · 976 L+54.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x07e9…15dcbacked No78c28$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.843756.8%21 W · 16 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick60cpaid-11%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x70a9…6f76backed No55c25.86$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.143966.7%26 W · 13 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick64cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7aa…ddd6backed No44c25$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111,69752.5%891 W · 806 L-42.5wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd8e…aea4backed No80c23$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.42,43479.4%1,933 W · 501 L+99.7wins+0.04per pick75cpaid+5.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8b2d…67b3backed Yes58c22.66$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.6250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-13.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6af…01fabacked No53c21.09$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.222114.3%3 W · 18 L-2.4wins-0.12per pick26cpaid-53.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x75b0…e7b7backed No75c18$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.51,59778.6%1,255 W · 342 L+41.7wins+0.03per pick76cpaid+3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd069…d078backed Yes73c13.81$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.693644.4%16 W · 20 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x59e5…81fdbacked No80c12.5$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10771.4%5 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick75cpaid-6.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
  • The position was at least $10.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.