Venezuela · resolved market
Trump announces new drug boat strike by November 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x05d91560b5a2e2733dff066e77cdbcd467b8cc420c1fa2af752a6dba0bbf8b0d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Venezuelaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,193
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,024
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,193 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Venezuela is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Venezuela | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 0c | 4,622$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.66 | 164 | 4.9%8 W · 156 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a23…0f72backed Yes | 11c | 2,960$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.99 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ef6…4daebacked Yes | 26c | 2,047$534 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$534.01 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | +3.4wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 14c | 650.15$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.71 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -3.0wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed Yes | 17c | 577.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 68 | 36.8%25 W · 43 L | +5.0wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x49b6…170cbacked No | 51c | 554.72$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.53 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebbc…b007backed No | 76c | 549.69$415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 3c | 436.81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 31 | 3.2%1 W · 30 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3be0…9836backed Yes | 26c | 430$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.8 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5893…6835backed No | 57c | 424.49$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.51 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +78%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e1…ab0fbacked No | 74c | 350$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -55%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x644b…2145backed No | 59c | 330.3$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.8 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 59cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 12c | 326.21$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.05 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b0…ba0bbacked Yes | 24c | 325.33$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.6 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2140…5790backed Yes | 32c | 317$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -60%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 3c | 314.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 74 | 35.1%26 W · 48 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8063…b886backed Yes | 17c | 305$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.43 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +8.3wins | +0.25per pick | 35cpaid | +83.8%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 28c | 168.13$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.62 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc51d…373bbacked Yes | 12c | 166.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.19per pick | 35cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 11c | 153.25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed Yes | 40c | 150.29$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.81 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes | 26c | 150$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x057d…4d1fbacked Yes | 52c | 135$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.85 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f29…4577backed Yes | 29c | 126.95$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.81 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ca1…f2ebbacked Yes | 17c | 120$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked Yes | 17c | 120$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.23 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36da…8218backed Yes | 13c | 119.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.41 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0518…5da2backed No | 53c | 112$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.72 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1039…d49abacked Yes | 46c | 110.33$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc7b…22a2backed No | 49c | 102.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x690d…56e9backed No | 64c | 100.01$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.34 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7918…3bedbacked Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4058…8b1cbacked Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.7 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x919e…d915backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes | 40c | 99.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +3.2wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0927…6486backed Yes | 49c | 99.99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d27…ced0backed Yes | 50c | 80$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90be…c800backed No | 50c | 75$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -3.1wins | -0.15per pick | 34cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2e…e826backed Yes | 14c | 72$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 34c | 65$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 124 | 25.8%32 W · 92 L | -8.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b93…9fbebacked No | 64c | 62.46$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 49c | 60.62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa712…bcddbacked Yes | 35c | 60$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +12%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b82…115abacked No | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35a1…2390backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb252…7492backed Yes | 32c | 46.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79e6…8336backed Yes | 59c | 42.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e5…cb25backed No | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe922…4685backed No | 49c | 40.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +103.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x723c…0c4dbacked No | 49c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -27%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9cb…6943backed No | 70c | 35.71$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe9a…cf52backed Yes | 50c | 34.17$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.13 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +45%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed No | 40c | 33.33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ba…0706backed Yes | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x385e…3896backed No | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b4…2a97backed No | 67c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b66…002bbacked No | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3475…eea8backed Yes | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…0c89backed No | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 69cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0dc…791fbacked No | 58c | 25.95$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.95 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +49%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5554…abf0backed No | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b5…e373backed No | 70c | 25.19$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b9d…68dbbacked No | 59c | 24.02$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +70.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Venezuela and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Trump announces new drug boat strike by November 9?this page
- Trump announces new drug boat strike by November 14?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.