TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x690d…56e9

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
44
Categories scored
14
Categories below 50
10

Best Category: World Politics, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category World Politics at 55 out of 100; worst College Football at 44.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
AI Inactivelast resolved Dec 4, 2025, EST922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.18per pick40cpaid-57.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
AI — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Pope Leo XIV be the #1 searched person on Google this year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$64.65
Will d4vd rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$14.2
Will Elon Musk rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$11.45
Will Zohran Mamdani rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST+138.1%+$23.2
Will Donald Trump rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$114Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$114.35
Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 18 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$61Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST+46.8%+$28.7
Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 19 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST-100%-$12.67
Grokipedia released by October 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$15
OpenAI browser by October 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$14.72
All 9 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Mar 23, 2026, EDT771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.22per pick49cpaid+31.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
World Politics — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 3, 2026, EST520%1 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.20per pick40cpaid-74.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

College Football Inactivelast resolved Dec 6, 2025, EST520%1 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.34per pick54cpaid-60.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
College Football — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in College Football, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Georgia vs. Alabamabacked Alabama · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 6, 2025, EST-100%-$12
Spread: Penn State (-7.5)backed Michigan State · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 15, 2025, EST-100%-$16.2
Arkansas vs. LSUbacked Arkansas · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 15, 2025, EST-100%-$19.2
O/U 51.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 15, 2025, EST+96.1%+$19.6
Clemson vs. Louisvillebacked Louisville · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 15, 2025, EST-100%-$49.5
All 5 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST40%0 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 4, 2026, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-47.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Middle East — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US strike on Syria by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$77Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+69.3%+$53.2
Will Israel strike Gaza on December 6?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2025, EST+63.9%+$9.75
All 2 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Dec 6, 2025, EST250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-20.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
NBA — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Pelicans vs. Netsbacked Pelicans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 6, 2025, EST-100%-$19.5
Raptors vs. Pacersbacked Raptors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$44Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 15, 2025, EST+58.7%+$25.9
All 2 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Nov 16, 2025, EST250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-34.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NHL — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Predators vs. Penguinsbacked Predators · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST-100%-$50.4
Sabres vs. Avalanchebacked Avalanche · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 14, 2025, EST+31.6%+$4.8
All 2 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Dec 2, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Mamdani get over 50% of the vote in the general mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST+63%+$13.92
All 1 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Dec 30, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Movies — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will "Stranger Things: Season 5" be the top US Netflix show this week? (December 30, 2025)backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST+31.6%+$4.8
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Dec 28, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Tennis — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Battle of the Sexes: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nick Kyrgiosbacked Sabalenka · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST-100%-$27.4
All 1 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Oct 30, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Over $1.8B committed to the MegaETH public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$11.8
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Dec 10, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Fed Cut–Cut–Pause in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$11.43
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.