TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

College Football · resolved market

Clemson vs. Louisville

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Clemsonof Clemson, Louisville
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$4,686,157
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$4,678,526

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,686,157 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 845 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in College Football
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xed88…f3c4backed Louisville56c1,154,894$645,741 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$645,740.6812549.6%62 W · 63 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3657…6b14backed Louisville56c899,019$500,001 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500,000.82958.6%17 W · 12 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Clemson45c826,598$371,588 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$455,010.3993548.4%453 W · 482 L+11.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb1d9…5ee1backed Clemson44c681,000$299,640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$381,360966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.7wins+0.19per pick48cpaid+44%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked Clemson44c617,769$271,818 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$345,950.634163.4%26 W · 15 L+5.4wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+23.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2f09…4632backed Louisville55c400,000$219,517 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219,516.545639.3%22 W · 34 L-3.3wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-14.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdbad…9c95backed Louisville55c300,000$164,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163,999.996547.7%31 W · 34 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe686…13cbbacked Clemson46c277,310$126,423 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150,887.4933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-17.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xafba…e61bbacked Clemson45c235,521$105,984 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129,536.33342.4%14 W · 19 L-2.7wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-17.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Clemson45c128,388$58,038 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70,350.4381847.9%392 W · 426 L+5.5wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb082…f55ebacked Louisville56c126,000$70,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70,12010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Louisville55c116,335$64,422 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64,421.5352449.4%259 W · 265 L-2.5wins0.00per pick50cpaid-4.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x9158…fa7bbacked Clemson45c104,535$47,041 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57,494.115745.6%26 W · 31 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43d4…13a2backed Clemson46c99,660$45,969 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53,691.385750.9%29 W · 28 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+22.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4335…fc2fbacked Clemson45c98,634$44,385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54,248.7112055%66 W · 54 L+4.2wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Louisville55c81,459$44,905 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44,904.7429249%143 W · 149 L+0.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3cda…6e17backed Louisville55c75,000$41,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41,25010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Clemson46c61,031$28,281 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32,750.2158850.2%295 W · 293 L+23.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa49b…4c40backed Louisville55c58,430$32,026 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32,026.477846.2%36 W · 42 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-14.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Clemson44c52,670$23,175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29,494.9515352.3%80 W · 73 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e3a…4033backed Louisville54c46,769$25,255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,255.0519362.2%120 W · 73 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x006c…16eabacked Louisville55c39,720$21,846 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,846.136832.4%22 W · 46 L-3.4wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-9.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x10b3…40d4backed Louisville52c30,000$15,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,6003148.4%15 W · 16 L-2.4wins-0.08per pick56cpaid-21.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Clemson44c28,179$12,409 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,770.0265945.2%298 W · 361 L-13.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb6a…f116backed Louisville54c27,886$15,145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,1451127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick33cpaid-23.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x57a8…6933backed Clemson46c25,908$11,846 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,061.5426147.9%125 W · 136 L-0.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ce2…e868backed Clemson44c25,000$11,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,999.975152.9%27 W · 24 L-0.2wins0.00per pick53cpaid-4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc3c3…eec8backed Clemson45c25,000$11,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,749.9527246%125 W · 147 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8b4…f05dbacked Clemson44c20,000$8,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,2008948.3%43 W · 46 L+3.4wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+7.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb230…4193backed Clemson44c20,000$8,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,2007342.5%31 W · 42 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8058…d023backed Clemson46c20,000$9,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,799.995141.2%21 W · 30 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x04b9…cdaabacked Clemson44c17,500$7,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,799.9915745.2%71 W · 86 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-2.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Clemson45c17,235$7,756 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,479.1311851.7%61 W · 57 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x79a5…6a63backed Louisville56c17,000$9,520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,52020%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked Clemson45c16,500$7,430 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,070.219750.5%49 W · 48 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6bb9…74bfbacked Louisville63c16,343$10,368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,367.6250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-19.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x53e5…6177backed Clemson44c15,000$6,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,4007944.3%35 W · 44 L-0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid+3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x057a…3bacbacked Clemson38c14,110$5,311 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,798.4117443.7%76 W · 98 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-6.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7690…74e1backed Clemson46c13,173$6,060 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,113.471361.5%8 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick68cpaid-5.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c6f…89b9backed Louisville55c12,000$6,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,6009844.9%44 W · 54 L-5.7wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-10.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x75c4…4cd0backed Louisville56c11,338$6,349 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,349.281258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f13…e0fdbacked Clemson45c10,463$4,681 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,781.814752.4%77 W · 70 L+9.7wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+10.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Louisville44c10,399$4,602 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,602.4864841.2%267 W · 381 L+12.4wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-20.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5ef2…f473backed Clemson46c10,127$4,659 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,468.831127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.8wins-0.17per pick44cpaid-43%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd2b2…d101backed Louisville55c9,026$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,0007146.5%33 W · 38 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x74d3…0332backed Clemson45c9,000$4,050 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,9503116.1%5 W · 26 L-4.8wins-0.15per pick32cpaid-62.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x86a3…33dbbacked Louisville55c9,000$4,950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,949.992646.2%12 W · 14 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e77…4505backed Louisville54c8,990$4,855 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,854.6850%4 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid+2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Louisville43c8,419$3,627 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,626.9762843.6%274 W · 354 L+7.4wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-14.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2232…f6fabacked Louisville70c8,100$5,634 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,634.063250%16 W · 16 L-4.9wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-28.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x97e1…017bbacked Clemson44c7,777$3,422 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,355.124841.7%20 W · 28 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a61…b560backed Clemson45c7,411$3,364 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,047.116838.2%26 W · 42 L-3.1wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-13.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Clemson44c7,274$3,201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,073.4422750.7%115 W · 112 L+9.9wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+9.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Louisville50c7,271$3,613 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,613.4919842.9%85 W · 113 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-20.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb13d…2e90backed Clemson45c7,000$3,150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,85010851.9%56 W · 52 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-11.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfeb0…7157backed Louisville56c6,421$3,596 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,59610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x58e7…4ad6backed Clemson44c6,414$2,822 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,591.571100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+127.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Louisville54c6,250$3,354 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,353.5513933.1%46 W · 93 L-8.4wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-45%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Louisville45c6,174$2,788 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,788.1940541.2%167 W · 238 L+1.8wins0.00per pick41cpaid-24.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a38…950bbacked Louisville48c6,025$2,914 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,913.5220%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1013…87d5backed Louisville36c5,841$2,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,1001457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8717…49a8backed Clemson45c5,542$2,494 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,048.2521348.8%104 W · 109 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x016e…c700backed Louisville55c5,455$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,0001040%4 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.13per pick53cpaid-28.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcb40…a284backed Clemson45c5,400$2,427 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,972.8334529.9%103 W · 242 L-21.6wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-26.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed Louisville54c5,000$2,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,70029055.2%160 W · 130 L+10.1wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Clemson45c5,000$2,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,75038142.5%162 W · 219 L-10.2wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-8.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa727…8289backed Louisville42c4,794$2,037 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,036.694746.8%22 W · 25 L-2.6wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-9.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x01b4…372ebacked Louisville2c4,000$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$802722.2%6 W · 21 L+5.6wins+0.21per pick2cpaid+841.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x06de…1ef4backed Louisville55c3,822$2,104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,104.0710%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Clemson44c3,783$1,673 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,110.1121644.9%97 W · 119 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-8.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x481b…74c1backed Clemson43c3,553$1,528 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,025.1123751.1%121 W · 116 L+6.8wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Clemson45c3,503$1,561 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,941.91,09041.7%455 W · 635 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d96…443ebacked Clemson45c3,366$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,865.56540%2 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick31cpaid-2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb58…86a4backed Clemson45c3,322$1,495 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,827.222142.9%9 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-15.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Clemson48c3,239$1,565 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,674.7355350.3%278 W · 275 L+9.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-11%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf327…34dbbacked Louisville53c3,019$1,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,6002951.7%15 W · 14 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-7.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x97e0…8194backed Clemson45c3,000$1,350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,649.992245.5%10 W · 12 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf38b…b601backed Clemson45c2,955$1,330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,625.05520%1 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.26per pick46cpaid-55.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x51d9…cb1abacked Louisville54c2,800$1,512 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,511.9930%0 W · 3 L-1.6wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa125…7cdfbacked Louisville56c2,679$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,500333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick58cpaid-40%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Louisville35c2,665$926 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$925.9657144.7%255 W · 316 L+11.3wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-10.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Louisville46c2,621$1,207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,206.921538.6%83 W · 132 L-0.6wins0.00per pick39cpaid-16.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1331…3d82backed Louisville65c2,506$1,639 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,639.392157.1%12 W · 9 L-1.7wins-0.08per pick65cpaid-15.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9def…d1a5backed Louisville55c2,500$1,380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,38012450.8%63 W · 61 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2bc7…e411backed Clemson44c2,500$1,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,399.985754.4%31 W · 26 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x014c…f5b6backed Clemson46c2,478$1,140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,338.269048.9%44 W · 46 L+3.7wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Clemson36c2,472$883 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,589.8730949.5%153 W · 156 L+13.0wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+2.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa9e6…1dc2backed Louisville57c2,374$1,351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,351.091553.3%8 W · 7 L-1.8wins-0.12per pick65cpaid-22.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcacf…35ffbacked Louisville2c2,305$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.2790%0 W · 79 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c03…604ebacked Louisville56c2,300$1,289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,289.45556.4%31 W · 24 L+3.1wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+0.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc5b5…7e80backed Louisville49c2,242$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,099.9720553.7%110 W · 95 L+14.6wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+2.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5f22…aaecbacked Louisville56c2,208$1,237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,236.69785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.9wins+0.27per pick59cpaid+47.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf930…e346backed Louisville55c2,199$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,20012042.5%51 W · 69 L-11.0wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-19.1%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x8c10…8977backed Louisville65c2,088$1,356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,355.78250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf014…d442backed Louisville53c2,072$1,098 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,098.21643.8%7 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-21.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x889c…e375backed Louisville74c2,036$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,500922.2%2 W · 7 L-2.8wins-0.32per pick54cpaid-57.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xb68b…9b23backed Louisville54c2,004$1,082 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,082.422365.2%15 W · 8 L+2.8wins+0.12per pick53cpaid+19.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9733…f034backed Louisville55c2,000$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1004654.3%25 W · 21 L+3.3wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+14.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5bf6…5200backed Clemson46c2,000$920 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,080862.5%5 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick65cpaid+0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e08…9726backed Louisville56c2,000$1,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,120366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+50.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.