College Football · resolved market
Spread: Louisville (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9d98b980ff795cff4c03d44f35d3a58e3145e809bc57c89d83efb9b6785fd0f7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Clemsonof Louisville, Clemson
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,490
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,435
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,490 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xafba…e61bbacked Clemson | 60c | 15,517$9,273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,244.83 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Louisville | 47c | 12,931$6,044 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,043.7 | 684 | 40.8%279 W · 405 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aec…1158backed Clemson | 60c | 12,492$7,481 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,010.96 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +59.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c6f…89b9backed Louisville | 40c | 10,984$4,434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,433.64 | 98 | 44.9%44 W · 54 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Louisville | 40c | 7,420$2,956 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,956.03 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Clemson | 58c | 2,404$1,395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,009.86 | 176 | 55.1%97 W · 79 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Clemson | 1c | 1,251$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,238.49 | 632 | 43.7%276 W · 356 L | +34.8wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +138.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Clemson | 59c | 1,002$591 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410.82 | 524 | 49.4%259 W · 265 L | -2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfae8…03cdbacked Louisville | 42c | 714.29$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Clemson | 56c | 521.19$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.45 | 588 | 50.2%295 W · 293 L | +23.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Louisville | 40c | 482.29$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.82 | 1,090 | 41.7%455 W · 635 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ab…343cbacked Louisville | 43c | 444.19$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Louisville | 46c | 348$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.08 | 216 | 44.9%97 W · 119 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Clemson | 60c | 250.93$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.47 | 293 | 51.9%152 W · 141 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Clemson | 56c | 245.47$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.51 | 659 | 45.2%298 W · 361 L | -13.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Louisville | 39c | 177.13$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.08 | 290 | 55.2%160 W · 130 L | +10.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x231a…2597backed Louisville | 41c | 146.34$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Clemson | 59c | 120$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.2 | 935 | 48.4%453 W · 482 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf339…e010backed Louisville | 41c | 120$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.2 | 72 | 45.8%33 W · 39 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Louisville | 42c | 107.14$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 302 | 53%160 W · 142 L | +10.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…3c72backed Louisville | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +52.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb9…3864backed Clemson | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.75 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.28per pick | 59cpaid | +52%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9363…fbfabacked Clemson | 61c | 81.97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.97 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02f7…b17abacked Clemson | 59c | 75$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.75 | 88 | 45.5%40 W · 48 L | -5.1wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0fda…ee9fbacked Louisville | 43c | 48.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.06 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf37a…50f2backed Louisville | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.26per pick | 36cpaid | -84.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa774…005fbacked Clemson | 59c | 45$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.45 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -6.1wins | -0.20per pick | 55cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0448…5a75backed Clemson | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4f…6dddbacked Louisville | 61c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.15 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Clemson | 48c | 24.13$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.55 | 756 | 51.9%392 W · 364 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc88…9328backed Louisville | 52c | 24.13$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Louisville (-3.5)this page
- Clemson vs. LouisvilleClemson won
- Clemson vs. Louisville: 1H MoneylineClemson won
- Clemson vs. Louisville: O/U 50.5Under won
- O/U 51.5Under won
- Spread: Louisville (-2.5)Clemson won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.