College Football · resolved market
Spread: Louisville (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfd87f2427e243c0d10d34b8c81c37f302c4fd454705066e07e7c32ab9bd4c645
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Clemsonof Louisville, Clemson
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,096
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,089
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,096 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Louisville | 49c | 20,273$9,943 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,943.37 | 524 | 49.4%259 W · 265 L | -2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafba…e61bbacked Clemson | 51c | 12,000$6,120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,880 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1496…a429backed Clemson | 51c | 10,100$5,151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,949 | 210 | 55.2%116 W · 94 L | +13.3wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9c6f…89b9backed Louisville | 49c | 9,000$4,410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,410 | 98 | 44.9%44 W · 54 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…cdaabacked Clemson | 51c | 6,295$3,210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,084.55 | 157 | 45.2%71 W · 86 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43d4…13a2backed Clemson | 50c | 2,281$1,141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,140.5 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Clemson | 49c | 1,645$806 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$838.56 | 935 | 48.4%453 W · 482 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Louisville | 48c | 1,360$656 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$656 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf930…e346backed Louisville | 50c | 1,202$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 120 | 42.5%51 W · 69 L | -11.0wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Clemson | 51c | 1,046$534 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$512.64 | 381 | 42.5%162 W · 219 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcea6…67adbacked Louisville | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2368…ef4abacked Clemson | 50c | 560$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa615…9475backed Louisville | 51c | 558.9$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e87…8befbacked Clemson | 53c | 472.64$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.64 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5384…9d80backed Louisville | 51c | 392.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x931f…d15dbacked Clemson | 53c | 377.36$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.36 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Louisville | 51c | 282$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.17 | 632 | 43.7%276 W · 356 L | +34.8wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +138.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Clemson | 49c | 254$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.54 | 588 | 50.2%295 W · 293 L | +23.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0338…4f11backed Louisville | 49c | 200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Louisville | 49c | 200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 113 | 54.9%62 W · 51 L | +7.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…cd84backed Louisville | 49c | 150$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.5 | 134 | 53%71 W · 63 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb6…25eabacked Louisville | 50c | 108$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | -4.5wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b55…d74bbacked Louisville | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d4e…18debacked Clemson | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cf9…b7d4backed Clemson | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98d0…01a4backed Louisville | 51c | 88.33$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.05 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Louisville | 51c | 70.59$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 659 | 45.2%298 W · 361 L | -13.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4627…7c23backed Louisville | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac4c…40c1backed Louisville | 50c | 51$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.33per pick | 53cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Clemson | 50c | 50.35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.95 | 1,090 | 41.7%455 W · 635 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4b…ec5ebacked Louisville | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a3…0c69backed Louisville | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -5.3wins | -0.17per pick | 45cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Clemson | 46c | 42.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 862 | 43.7%377 W · 485 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bf3…379bbacked Louisville | 50c | 39.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3914…2103backed Louisville | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa9…7d07backed Louisville | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b9f…d2b9backed Clemson | 51c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +18%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b1f…4eebbacked Clemson | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 107 | 57.9%62 W · 45 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Louisville (-2.5)this page
- Clemson vs. LouisvilleClemson won
- Clemson vs. Louisville: 1H MoneylineClemson won
- Clemson vs. Louisville: O/U 50.5Under won
- O/U 51.5Under won
- Spread: Louisville (-3.5)Clemson won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.