College Football · resolved market
Spread: Penn State (-7.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x910eca5737e03d907793c16d5e82c96eb3ab12cf27b7a5d3b56025ae676dea41
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Penn Stateof Penn State, Michigan State
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $87,650
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $87,670
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $87,650 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7189…b454backed Michigan State | 53c | 37,238$19,802 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,801.74 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4335…fc2fbacked Penn State | 47c | 30,000$14,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,900 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Penn State | 47c | 25,000$11,750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,250 | 272 | 46%125 W · 147 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Penn State | 46c | 15,245$6,980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,265.6 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…01b4backed Michigan State | 53c | 13,928$7,382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,381.88 | 118 | 46.6%55 W · 63 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Michigan State | 54c | 10,000$5,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,400 | 399 | 54.1%216 W · 183 L | +16.7wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…cdaabacked Michigan State | 53c | 10,000$5,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,300 | 157 | 45.2%71 W · 86 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5a…bb9bbacked Penn State | 46c | 9,500$4,370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,129.99 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +4.2wins | +0.35per pick | 48cpaid | +79.4%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9f13…e0fdbacked Penn State | 47c | 5,464$2,568 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,895.95 | 147 | 52.4%77 W · 70 L | +9.7wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Michigan State | 53c | 4,769$2,528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,527.57 | 818 | 47.9%392 W · 426 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb43…3c74backed Michigan State | 54c | 4,500$2,430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,430 | 385 | 46%177 W · 208 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Michigan State | 55c | 3,000$1,650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,650 | 178 | 37.6%67 W · 111 L | -12.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a6d…3779backed Michigan State | 53c | 951$507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$506.65 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.4wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Michigan State | 53c | 755$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.15 | 224 | 37.5%84 W · 140 L | -17.3wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd4e2…5ec0backed Michigan State | 53c | 377.36$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Penn State | 47c | 254$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.47 | 524 | 49.4%259 W · 265 L | -2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57b9…e9b4backed Michigan State | 53c | 235.85$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe832…7abbbacked Penn State | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Michigan State | 52c | 197.8$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.86 | 262 | 44.3%116 W · 146 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Michigan State | 52c | 195$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.63 | 568 | 44.5%253 W · 315 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98d0…01a4backed Penn State | 48c | 165.72$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.08 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x258e…d16cbacked Penn State | 47c | 159.57$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.57 | 174 | 50%87 W · 87 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Penn State | 46c | 137$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.98 | 1,090 | 41.7%455 W · 635 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ae…2103backed Michigan State | 55c | 136.36$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67b6…b4e6backed Michigan State | 17c | 134.5$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +3.0wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x50bb…9aa6backed Michigan State | 54c | 110$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.4 | 81 | 42%34 W · 47 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Penn State | 48c | 108.23$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.71 | 542 | 43.2%234 W · 308 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda31…8e56backed Michigan State | 52c | 105.02$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.61 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b79…3c8cbacked Penn State | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.17 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d4e…18debacked Michigan State | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd368…1889backed Michigan State | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 62 | 41.9%26 W · 36 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb6…25eabacked Michigan State | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | -4.5wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc557…e530backed Penn State | 48c | 85.02$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.21 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +17%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cd…b74cbacked Penn State | 49c | 80$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.8 | 258 | 19.8%51 W · 207 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -26%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbda3…ef65backed Michigan State | 53c | 70$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.1 | 97 | 54.6%53 W · 44 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf491…2b48backed Penn State | 47c | 42.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.11 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a3…0c69backed Michigan State | 54c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -5.3wins | -0.17per pick | 45cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x34c3…aa41backed Michigan State | 54c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc54d…cce3backed Penn State | 49c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3427…005dbacked Michigan State | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x690d…56e9backed Michigan State | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 54cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Penn State (-7.5)this page
- Penn State vs. Michigan StatePenn State won
- Penn State vs. Michigan State: 1H MoneylinePenn State won
- Penn State vs. Michigan State: O/U 48.5Under won
- Penn State vs. Michigan State: O/U 49.5Under won
- Spread: Penn State (-6.5)Penn State won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.