College Football · resolved market
Penn State vs. Michigan State
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb68c2eb0f8810dd22e3633ea2aea7ab616b6b370ad6d4aff065adb90be6e304b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Penn Stateof Penn State, Michigan State
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $80,764
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $83,486
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $80,764 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 91 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4335…fc2fbacked Penn State | 72c | 40,000$28,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,200 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Michigan State | 28c | 15,114$4,232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,232 | 935 | 48.4%453 W · 482 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf152…64aabacked Penn State | 71c | 7,392$5,248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,143.7 | 50 | 64%32 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x057a…3bacbacked Michigan State | 32c | 6,787$2,146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,146.29 | 174 | 43.7%76 W · 98 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Michigan State | 28c | 6,668$1,867 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,867 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebc0…fa41backed Michigan State | 28c | 6,340$1,775 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,775.18 | 154 | 51.9%80 W · 74 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Michigan State | 38c | 4,652$1,763 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,763.46 | 262 | 44.3%116 W · 146 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Michigan State | 38c | 4,128$1,551 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,551.44 | 588 | 50.2%295 W · 293 L | +23.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed Michigan State | 29c | 4,000$1,160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,160 | 108 | 51.9%56 W · 52 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8768…dd9bbacked Penn State | 71c | 2,631$1,868 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$763.04 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Michigan State | 28c | 2,502$701 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700.57 | 494 | 43.7%216 W · 278 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Penn State | 63c | 2,488$1,563 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$924.44 | 628 | 43.6%274 W · 354 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cb…d096backed Penn State | 66c | 2,445$1,614 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$830.52 | 139 | 33.1%46 W · 93 L | -8.4wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -45%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Michigan State | 28c | 2,386$668 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$667.97 | 118 | 51.7%61 W · 57 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae3…bc70backed Michigan State | 30c | 2,195$648 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$648 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Michigan State | 28c | 2,000$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560 | 659 | 45.2%298 W · 361 L | -13.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Penn State | 68c | 1,980$1,352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$628.4 | 648 | 41.2%267 W · 381 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb40…a284backed Michigan State | 29c | 1,800$522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$522 | 345 | 29.9%103 W · 242 L | -21.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcfca…68fcbacked Michigan State | 28c | 1,200$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336 | 471 | 31.4%148 W · 323 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Penn State | 67c | 1,173$783 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390.04 | 553 | 50.3%278 W · 275 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe5f…d795backed Michigan State | 29c | 1,000$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Penn State | 59c | 954.22$565 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389.61 | 237 | 51.1%121 W · 116 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Michigan State | 28c | 947.21$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.37 | 503 | 58.1%292 W · 211 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…fce4backed Michigan State | 28c | 740.3$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.88 | 256 | 29.3%75 W · 181 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Michigan State | 29c | 731$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.99 | 292 | 49%143 W · 149 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00b5…b3cabacked Penn State | 72c | 666.67$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.67 | 36 | 80.6%29 W · 7 L | +5.3wins | +0.15per pick | 66cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5916…8d4fbacked Penn State | 61c | 608.89$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.79 | 61 | 63.9%39 W · 22 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd40…73a2backed Michigan State | 27c | 550$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 112 | 21.4%24 W · 88 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Michigan State | 28c | 543.52$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.19 | 1,090 | 41.7%455 W · 635 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74bc…98c9backed Penn State | 69c | 526.16$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.06 | 105 | 55.2%58 W · 47 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Penn State | 52c | 525$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252 | 267 | 50.9%136 W · 131 L | +21.7wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3c82…e0cbbacked Penn State | 58c | 519.62$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.62 | 200 | 39.5%79 W · 121 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Michigan State | 33c | 466.37$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.36 | 402 | 44.8%180 W · 222 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x165d…79c6backed Penn State | 62c | 444.64$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.8 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -3.7wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Michigan State | 29c | 404$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.16 | 384 | 50.5%194 W · 190 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda31…8e56backed Michigan State | 28c | 400$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ebb…017abacked Michigan State | 29c | 344.83$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x611c…4b49backed Penn State | 72c | 208.33$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.33 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 67cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Penn State | 67c | 203.56$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.87 | 405 | 41.2%167 W · 238 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3013…e5b2backed Penn State | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc71f…bd62backed Michigan State | 28c | 172.81$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.39 | 216 | 29.2%63 W · 153 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Penn State | 68c | 168$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.44 | 571 | 44.7%255 W · 316 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5dd…b094backed Penn State | 57c | 166.67$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.67 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Penn State | 64c | 134$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.9 | 632 | 43.7%276 W · 356 L | +34.8wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +138.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc557…e530backed Penn State | 73c | 124.36$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.58 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +17%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked Michigan State | 28c | 120$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 268 | 46.3%124 W · 144 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Penn State | 72c | 118$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.04 | 524 | 49.4%259 W · 265 L | -2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ada…2f28backed Penn State | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 131 | 49.6%65 W · 66 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x646c…3210backed Michigan State | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -4.3wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd9bd…8469backed Michigan State | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +3.9wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Michigan State | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 94 | 20.2%19 W · 75 L | -8.0wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5384…7408backed Michigan State | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Michigan State | 29c | 99.98$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.99 | 473 | 31.5%149 W · 324 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…1eedbacked Michigan State | 19c | 96.79$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | +3.5wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1a8a…b155backed Michigan State | 29c | 86.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 56 | 41.1%23 W · 33 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9334…32dabacked Penn State | 72c | 83.33$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.33 | 188 | 68.1%128 W · 60 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb3…1356backed Penn State | 63c | 76.38$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.3 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5203…28b8backed Michigan State | 29c | 75.86$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.29per pick | 38cpaid | +79.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6643…0109backed Michigan State | 28c | 75$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 68 | 47.1%32 W · 36 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Michigan State | 27c | 74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 244 | 36.9%90 W · 154 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38ab…75ffbacked Michigan State | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafa5…7507backed Penn State | 71c | 70.42$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.42 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf35…b327backed Penn State | 72c | 69.44$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | -4.7wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e2c…e2fdbacked Michigan State | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaf1…c04bbacked Michigan State | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fe9…9c50backed Penn State | 72c | 55.56$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.56 | 73 | 57.5%42 W · 31 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb36f…365bbacked Penn State | 72c | 55.56$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.56 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde17…68d2backed Michigan State | 39c | 52.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.32 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b5…6a22backed Penn State | 64c | 48.63$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Michigan State | 28c | 46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 542 | 43.2%234 W · 308 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9aca…dfd3backed Penn State | 72c | 41.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 41 | 75.6%31 W · 10 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 70cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…8b3abacked Penn State | 72c | 41.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…e834backed Michigan State | 46c | 40.82$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.78 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e90…8339backed Michigan State | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Michigan State | 29c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba40…b7b7backed Penn State | 72c | 38.19$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.69 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.37per pick | 43cpaid | +97%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x60ae…1e97backed Penn State | 70c | 36.98$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.98 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…88dfbacked Penn State | 72c | 34.72$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 73cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ad7…86bfbacked Penn State | 73c | 34.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 72 | 34.7%25 W · 47 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x604a…8379backed Penn State | 70c | 31.21$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.21 | 25 | 76%19 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 70cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8deb…d8e2backed Penn State | 76c | 30.74$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3458…b5a7backed Penn State | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 106 | 64.2%68 W · 38 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb46…5d1bbacked Penn State | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 74 | 64.9%48 W · 26 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6706…7e84backed Penn State | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 71cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…ed2bbacked Penn State | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a2…a3e0backed Penn State | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 74cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x040f…e98cbacked Penn State | 72c | 24.12$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c70…173bbacked Penn State | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0345…6745backed Penn State | 72c | 18.06$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.06 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a74…c3e4backed Penn State | 72c | 15.28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.28 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0df8…3e3dbacked Penn State | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.06 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Penn State vs. Michigan Statethis page
- Penn State vs. Michigan State: 1H MoneylinePenn State won
- Penn State vs. Michigan State: O/U 48.5Under won
- Penn State vs. Michigan State: O/U 49.5Under won
- Spread: Penn State (-6.5)Penn State won
- Spread: Penn State (-7.5)Penn State won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.