Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 33°C on August 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x83c77f3c9a0885e74c89964c95b47ede87707e751b13254ff22411a92bd22f74
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,725
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,498
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,725 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9f6a…eb61backed Yes | 40c | 1,657$662 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$661.71 | 103 | 42.7%44 W · 59 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +121.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 48c | 906.96$437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$437.06 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4d…bb01backed No | 56c | 536.06$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.96 | 218 | 29.4%64 W · 154 L | +5.4wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 60c | 474.18$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.73 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 63c | 403.71$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.59 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 58c | 401.49$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.62 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 65c | 383.44$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.91 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 26c | 324$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.24 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10e0…92e4backed Yes | 38c | 261.79$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 277 | 44%122 W · 155 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 65c | 247.87$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.13 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 66c | 221.17$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.2 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 38c | 221.04$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.92 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed No | 48c | 218.11$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.65 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8593…82f5backed Yes | 36c | 218.02$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.94 | 83 | 37.3%31 W · 52 L | +6.0wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 52c | 201.8$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.86 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 28c | 195.53$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.2 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 66c | 165.81$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.38 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 61c | 163.13$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.9 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed No | 51c | 163.01$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.87 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 56c | 150$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.5 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 52c | 125.03$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.81 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 65c | 125$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.55 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 51c | 121.21$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed Yes | 27c | 112.88$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb80a…6163backed Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed Yes | 47c | 99.99$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 170 | 28.8%49 W · 121 L | -12.9wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2b58…d734backed Yes | 34c | 99.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 155 | 34.2%53 W · 102 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed Yes | 28c | 91.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.76 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5695…60e9backed Yes | 53c | 89.29$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.32 | 192 | 52.1%100 W · 92 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 51c | 87.96$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 65c | 86$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.46 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8857…4b5bbacked Yes | 52c | 82$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.64 | 227 | 40.5%92 W · 135 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 49c | 78.82$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b5…e373backed Yes | 34c | 74.58$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.36 | 151 | 28.5%43 W · 108 L | -12.7wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 50c | 73.68$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.59 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…8159backed Yes | 17c | 71.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 587 | 32.9%193 W · 394 L | +34.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 31c | 71.02$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.85 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 70$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 50c | 67.96$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.31 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed No | 53c | 60$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.2 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 52c | 60$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 52c | 60$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcfa…c89fbacked No | 48c | 59.97$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.93 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 23c | 51.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…8b5ebacked Yes | 51c | 51.21$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.12 | 141 | 51.8%73 W · 68 L | +10.3wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e3…5296backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 203 | 39.9%81 W · 122 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe9…64adbacked Yes | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 213 | 39%83 W · 130 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb26d…73f7backed Yes | 49c | 49.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 252 | 61.9%156 W · 96 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe00b…f8a3backed Yes | 53c | 47.6$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 103 | 54.4%56 W · 47 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 52c | 47.31$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 63c | 46.42$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.07 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 51c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 52c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33e8…dc93backed Yes | 34c | 39.35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 239 | 41.4%99 W · 140 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…38ccbacked No | 52c | 39.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 74 | 70.3%52 W · 22 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed No | 66c | 37.88$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked No | 66c | 36.7$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 30c | 34.35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 52c | 33.21$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 50c | 31.81$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.76 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 80c | 30.87$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 50c | 30.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.95 | 271 | 69%187 W · 84 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 55c | 29.2$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.14 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 41c | 29.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x367f…ee28backed No | 48c | 29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.08 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43eb…3d85backed Yes | 50c | 25.85$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.93 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed No | 48c | 23.85$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 417 | 52%217 W · 200 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked Yes | 50c | 20.65$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 375 | 41.6%156 W · 219 L | -52.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x500e…7c9abacked Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…d572backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.15 | 374 | 65.2%244 W · 130 L | +23.4wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 77c | 18.95$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 71c | 17.74$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.16 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 67c | 16.63$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.52 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 33°C on August 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 32°C on August 6?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 34°C on August 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.