Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 32°C on August 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2b2d937d1c0bf1105ef9f10a8569390fa389a8d154d3489c25a0bd52eb8f0a7f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,316
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,176
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,316 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 8c | 646.1$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.05 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 58c | 599.72$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.15 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 50c | 570.28$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.98 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 43c | 403.71$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.49 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 50c | 401.91$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.08 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed No | 47c | 267$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.49 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 15c | 251.78$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.56 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 55c | 224.95$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.8 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80c0…c4f6backed Yes | 74c | 197.39$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.38 | 195 | 59.5%116 W · 79 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 37c | 188.54$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.54 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 46c | 187.64$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.89 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4d…bb01backed Yes | 45c | 163.71$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.04 | 218 | 29.4%64 W · 154 L | +5.4wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 24c | 158.62$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 33c | 149.76$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.59 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 65c | 135$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.39 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 47c | 134.99$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.99 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 55c | 118.85$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.9 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 56c | 111.52$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.95 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 63c | 107.2$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 56c | 104.88$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.68 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 49c | 102.65$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.3 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 55c | 96$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.8 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 43c | 92.38$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.38 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 44c | 86$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.48 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 33c | 78.22$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.26 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x375b…0ebbbacked Yes | 78c | 76.77$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.77 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 62c | 71.93$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.49 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked Yes | 45c | 71.59$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.37 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 49c | 70$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.3 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 70$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 63c | 68.6$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.35 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed Yes | 49c | 65.78$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.55 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70c4…1008backed No | 46c | 65.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 333 | 50.2%167 W · 166 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 58c | 65.26$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.96 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 47c | 61$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 39c | 59.21$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.33 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 49c | 58$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.42 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…e09dbacked Yes | 41c | 57.89$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.9 | 253 | 42.3%107 W · 146 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 44c | 57.27$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.47 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7010…f245backed Yes | 45c | 55.56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.56 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 48c | 55.29$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.3 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed No | 29c | 52.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.29 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 38c | 52.34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.45 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb4…b673backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 64c | 47.08$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 62c | 46.06$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.46 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 30c | 43.59$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8116…465dbacked No | 45c | 42.36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.27 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 56c | 35.91$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.91 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x74dd…2131backed No | 29c | 35.77$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 91 | 15.4%14 W · 77 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 36c | 34.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 63c | 33.56$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.15 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3d5…c693backed Yes | 40c | 33.53$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.19 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.5wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 62c | 33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.45 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 63c | 30.53$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.13 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 52c | 30.03$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.31 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0032…e886backed Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 135 | 37.8%51 W · 84 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57d2…0789backed No | 45c | 28.02$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.61 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d17…32d8backed No | 49c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 136 | 55.1%75 W · 61 L | -13.4wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…a3a5backed Yes | 47c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 150 | 51.3%77 W · 73 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…f004backed No | 45c | 24.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 157 | 49.7%78 W · 79 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3175…9bb2backed Yes | 46c | 23.66$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.71 | 166 | 42.8%71 W · 95 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 45c | 22.59$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed No | 49c | 21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 350 | 63.1%221 W · 129 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x554e…b670backed Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 55c | 19.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdae8…4736backed Yes | 55c | 19.45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked No | 58c | 17.43$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 375 | 41.6%156 W · 219 L | -52.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…d572backed Yes | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.78 | 374 | 65.2%244 W · 130 L | +23.4wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 32°C on August 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 33°C on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 34°C on August 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.