Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on August 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9764ac90122c76967dd358715759d31c2b35ee39c8bb6f04c2b9d2c21f1aa758
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,275
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,310
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,275 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 135 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 16c | 1,038$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.4 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 35c | 901.17$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.6 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 31c | 799.33$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.56 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8839…ddb5backed No | 65c | 705$462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.46 | 218 | 65.6%143 W · 75 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 61c | 662.45$407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.05 | 382 | 43.2%165 W · 217 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 62c | 609.8$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.2 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed No | 65c | 583.44$379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.2 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 71c | 550.08$393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.29 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 37c | 547.63$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.89 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed No | 64c | 500$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.98 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a338backed Yes | 39c | 457.01$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.84 | 290 | 37.9%110 W · 180 L | +29.1wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fc…5bd4backed Yes | 42c | 429.27$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 386 | 33.4%129 W · 257 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5203…b975backed Yes | 31c | 399.98$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.99 | 186 | 41.4%77 W · 109 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 39c | 333.96$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.77 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 61c | 317.07$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.07 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4d…bb01backed Yes | 32c | 312.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.83 | 218 | 29.4%64 W · 154 L | +5.4wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 34c | 301$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.52 | 439 | 32.8%144 W · 295 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01a5…0e36backed No | 74c | 288.46$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.28 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…55a0backed Yes | 19c | 237.67$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 295 | 36.9%109 W · 186 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 69c | 237.61$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.27 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked Yes | 9c | 234.85$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.14 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 68c | 220.99$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.31 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed Yes | 54c | 214.18$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.65 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 70c | 214$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.23 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 67c | 210$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.6 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f0…a4ccbacked Yes | 39c | 202.01$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.45 | 235 | 40.9%96 W · 139 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf733…297dbacked Yes | 12c | 185.92$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.61 | 175 | 11.4%20 W · 155 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 60c | 184.4$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.24 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 29c | 176$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.04 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 8c | 166.72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x97ce…ddadbacked Yes | 34c | 144.29$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.87 | 129 | 39.5%51 W · 78 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cc…6171backed Yes | 46c | 142.55$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.31 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 63c | 135$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.95 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2df6…ef98backed No | 69c | 132.46$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.74 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 49c | 130.05$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.8 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 40c | 130$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.42 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 61c | 126.89$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.96 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…395bbacked Yes | 38c | 122.49$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.26 | 336 | 28.9%97 W · 239 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 17c | 121.55$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.74 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb924…0803backed No | 59c | 120$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.2 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe117…1b4bbacked No | 62c | 111.58$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.87 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +2.8wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +38%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7bed…bbf5backed Yes | 42c | 108.55$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.82 | 118 | 56.8%67 W · 51 L | +12.1wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 34c | 107.69$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.62 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 64c | 104.81$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.31 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…0020backed Yes | 31c | 103.57$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.11 | 389 | 30.3%118 W · 271 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed Yes | 18c | 101.44$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.39 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 64c | 100.61$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.22 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 397 | 68.8%273 W · 124 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43fd…59d3backed No | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 159 | 61.6%98 W · 61 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90b8…64afbacked Yes | 30c | 99.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 65c | 99.99$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed Yes | 38c | 99.77$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.91 | 170 | 28.8%49 W · 121 L | -12.9wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked Yes | 32c | 99.67$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.81 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 39c | 92.34$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.77 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd746…2c6fbacked Yes | 44c | 90.91$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 147 | 46.9%69 W · 78 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 33c | 90$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 67c | 89.76$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.32 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe1db…d0fabacked Yes | 34c | 88.24$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x613a…2185backed Yes | 13c | 88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 33c | 82.35$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.88 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3910…ba74backed Yes | 33c | 81.82$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.8 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 65c | 80.9$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.58 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 56c | 77.98$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.31 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 35c | 71.42$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked No | 62c | 69.41$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.38 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 35c | 68.73$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.16 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 36c | 67$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.12 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5548…9cc6backed No | 63c | 66.87$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.02 | 197 | 57.4%113 W · 84 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe30…87cabacked Yes | 46c | 65.4$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 38c | 64.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.53 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 46c | 64.54$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.96 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 67c | 64.22$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.07 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb1…c5ddbacked Yes | 55c | 62.87$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.36 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.17per pick | 54cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3784…1f34backed Yes | 44c | 61.63$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.26 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -28%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 68c | 59.64$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.03 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 67c | 58.56$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.33 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12f5…5ac4backed Yes | 35c | 57.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.21 | 112 | 40.2%45 W · 67 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 35c | 57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.05 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6408…19b4backed Yes | 44c | 56.82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 30c | 54.44$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.33 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33e8…dc93backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 239 | 41.4%99 W · 140 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…346abacked Yes | 34c | 49.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.99 | 59 | 35.6%21 W · 38 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 55c | 46.14$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.74 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73c9…5eb1backed Yes | 24c | 45.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 34c | 44.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.02 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 38c | 44$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 42c | 42.52$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.54 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x304b…a619backed Yes | 35c | 42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 275 | 52%143 W · 132 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b58…d734backed Yes | 33c | 42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 155 | 34.2%53 W · 102 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 60c | 40.38$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.27 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 69c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 65c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 33c | 39.65$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 61c | 39.5$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.37 | 421 | 60.6%255 W · 166 L | -25.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked No | 66c | 39.45$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.41 | 375 | 41.6%156 W · 219 L | -52.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 39c | 37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b5…e373backed Yes | 39c | 36.73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.32 | 151 | 28.5%43 W · 108 L | -12.7wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 62c | 36.67$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 39c | 35.38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on August 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on August 6?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 36°C on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 37°C or higher on August 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.