Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on August 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x63f437de9c837c985e29d8b0a13de95277fefc949faf2d1476c8d19e6ae96569
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,800
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,697
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,800 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 141 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 39c | 1,724$664 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$663.95 | 382 | 43.2%165 W · 217 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed No | 19c | 1,359$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.3 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 52c | 600.48$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.65 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 34c | 575.52$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.29 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 33c | 533.4$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.2 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…346abacked Yes | 63c | 440$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.88 | 59 | 35.6%21 W · 38 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 43c | 430.57$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.4 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd195…7b7cbacked Yes | 48c | 410.67$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.55 | 87 | 32.2%28 W · 59 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2139…4ca8backed Yes | 55c | 398.72$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.96 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a55…dcfcbacked Yes | 52c | 396.89$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.41 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +59.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 56c | 386.35$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.75 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xefdb…007bbacked No | 26c | 373.14$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.62 | 52 | 25%13 W · 39 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 13c | 339.94$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.98 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 52c | 274.99$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.76 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5556…d729backed Yes | 56c | 266$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.84 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 40c | 254.96$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.28 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cc…6171backed Yes | 59c | 221.96$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.57 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8839…ddb5backed Yes | 47c | 220.5$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.96 | 218 | 65.6%143 W · 75 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 54c | 220.05$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.59 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0546…17a9backed Yes | 71c | 214.9$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.23 | 47 | 70.2%33 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3910…ba74backed Yes | 45c | 211.84$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.67 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…0020backed Yes | 48c | 205.33$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.77 | 389 | 30.3%118 W · 271 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe117…1b4bbacked Yes | 49c | 204.15$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.15 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +2.8wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +38%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 51c | 200$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb902…06d8backed Yes | 50c | 199.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.44 | 71 | 59.2%42 W · 29 L | +6.9wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 52c | 191.16$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.34 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25e5…96bdbacked No | 54c | 186.65$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9417…c766backed Yes | 56c | 185.51$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.9 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 52cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 43c | 184.67$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.04 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 54c | 184.4$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.32 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed No | 58c | 163$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.54 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3784…1f34backed Yes | 46c | 158.96$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.24 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -28%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 56c | 155.9$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.36 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 59c | 152.35$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.01 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 29c | 149.09$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.86 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f0…a4ccbacked Yes | 50c | 146$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.69 | 235 | 40.9%96 W · 139 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 47c | 136.23$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.7 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 52c | 134.8$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.44 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 45c | 133.33$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.33 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cb…af17backed Yes | 57c | 125.43$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.98 | 84 | 42.9%36 W · 48 L | +4.8wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97ce…ddadbacked Yes | 47c | 120$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.6 | 129 | 39.5%51 W · 78 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 54c | 119$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.68 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 54c | 110.89$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.68 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fc…5bd4backed Yes | 46c | 108.76$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.76 | 386 | 33.4%129 W · 257 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 42c | 106.95$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.95 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc959…c37fbacked Yes | 47c | 106.62$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.62 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 49c | 104.99$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.45 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 54c | 103.51$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.92 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd17e…7a0cbacked Yes | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 189 | 45.5%86 W · 103 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90b8…64afbacked Yes | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x150a…b6b1backed No | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.9 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -8.7wins | -0.23per pick | 47cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x1546…778bbacked No | 50c | 99.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 354 | 29.9%106 W · 248 L | -17.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x88f3…9215backed No | 56c | 99.99$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -39%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a338backed No | 50c | 99.09$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 290 | 37.9%110 W · 180 L | +29.1wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x532b…ccccbacked Yes | 66c | 98.73$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.15 | 81 | 76.5%62 W · 19 L | +11.7wins | +0.14per pick | 62cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6d17…32d8backed Yes | 55c | 98$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.39 | 136 | 55.1%75 W · 61 L | -13.4wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed Yes | 52c | 95.63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.95 | 385 | 60.3%232 W · 153 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 14c | 92$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 44c | 90$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.4 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a9…07ffbacked Yes | 49c | 84.47$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.08 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 57c | 80.9$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.01 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 20c | 78.94$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.86 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 46c | 75.74$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.51 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked Yes | 60c | 75.54$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.94 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x518c…d366backed Yes | 55c | 73.44$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.91 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34d5…a977backed Yes | 48c | 72.04$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.54 | 230 | 30.9%71 W · 159 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 70$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1b7…fefdbacked Yes | 50c | 66.12$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.12 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked Yes | 45c | 64.78$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.63 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 55c | 63.29$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.29 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf080…06e3backed Yes | 49c | 61.16$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.16 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 46c | 60.97$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.92 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x118b…38c8backed Yes | 40c | 60.77$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.53 | 85 | 42.4%36 W · 49 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70c4…1008backed No | 49c | 60.74$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 333 | 50.2%167 W · 166 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked Yes | 45c | 60.38$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.3 | 375 | 41.6%156 W · 219 L | -52.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 50c | 59.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.21 | 445 | 36.6%163 W · 282 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 54c | 59.64$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.33 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 58c | 59.21$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.68 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee25…63ccbacked No | 54c | 56.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.11 | 200 | 56.5%113 W · 87 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea21…f753backed Yes | 52c | 56.18$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.93 | 236 | 68.2%161 W · 75 L | +18.8wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x606d…89e6backed No | 47c | 55.07$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.05 | 56 | 69.6%39 W · 17 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 53c | 54.33$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.04 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 57c | 54.33$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.03 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 46c | 51.39$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.64 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e3…5296backed Yes | 49c | 50.69$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.69 | 203 | 39.9%81 W · 122 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa22c…2089backed Yes | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.02 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2df6…ef98backed Yes | 47c | 48.5$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.55 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed No | 68c | 48.16$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.88 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 44c | 45.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.46 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x175c…2a68backed Yes | 49c | 45.14$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.14 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +3.9wins | +0.24per pick | 45cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 55c | 45.13$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.82 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a7e…9dc6backed No | 52c | 45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.35per pick | 45cpaid | +108%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 50c | 44.15$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.28 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f93…35afbacked Yes | 58c | 42.46$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c6…cd99backed Yes | 60c | 41.56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.57 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 64cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a1…5e41backed Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +3.7wins | +0.15per pick | 41cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x66b0…0a60backed Yes | 42c | 39.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.29 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 39c | 38.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.88 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2fe…580bbacked Yes | 72c | 35.94$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.99 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 54cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 44c | 35.81$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.17 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on August 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 36°C on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 37°C or higher on August 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.