World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on August 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x65bf0a3091bf6fe0a14336300e81eacd4f0ebe64a2377977f2a0ecab914e1728
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,770
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,320
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,770 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 139 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 32c | 1,034$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.99 | 51 | 27.5%14 W · 37 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes | 49c | 899.03$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$458.7 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 55c | 832.63$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372.62 | 237 | 23.2%55 W · 182 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 36c | 694.39$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.85 | 86 | 55.8%48 W · 38 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 61c | 492.86$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.86 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed No | 47c | 416.21$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.68 | 46 | 15.2%7 W · 39 L | -5.0wins | -0.11per pick | 26cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 39c | 400$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80c0…c4f6backed Yes | 65c | 308.33$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.4 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35fb…8511backed Yes | 62c | 305.44$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.01 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 65c | 300$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.45 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 67c | 300$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99 | 184 | 45.7%84 W · 100 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 43c | 298.68$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.25 | 271 | 43.5%118 W · 153 L | -21.4wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 36c | 289.85$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.11 | 235 | 51.9%122 W · 113 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 52c | 278.32$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.29 | 441 | 38.1%168 W · 273 L | +27.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaebd…a26fbacked Yes | 72c | 253.19$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71 | 183 | 42.6%78 W · 105 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 65c | 227.94$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 93 | 37.6%35 W · 58 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 49c | 199.99$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -5.8wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 48c | 186.16$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.21 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed No | 20c | 180$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.1 | 104 | 14.4%15 W · 89 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 35c | 178.12$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.96 | 406 | 48.8%198 W · 208 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 26c | 168.56$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.14 | 144 | 45.8%66 W · 78 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 29c | 166.03$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.26 | 528 | 50.8%268 W · 260 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 51c | 158.2$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 17c | 150.61$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.17 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | +6.1wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 62c | 150$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 51c | 143.99$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.43 | 179 | 52.5%94 W · 85 L | -15.0wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 31c | 134.67$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.55 | 145 | 53.8%78 W · 67 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 36c | 132.61$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.32 | 162 | 54.3%88 W · 74 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 35c | 128.95$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.94 | 168 | 50.6%85 W · 83 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e2…c595backed Yes | 78c | 128.26$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.26 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33a2…6efbbacked Yes | 80c | 125.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.31 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 40c | 122.58$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.55 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6e…5848backed Yes | 57c | 120.4$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.4 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +64.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b46…8f13backed Yes | 64c | 115.33$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe272…ccefbacked Yes | 70c | 113.27$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 32c | 110.34$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.97 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | +9.4wins | +0.13per pick | 23cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed No | 37c | 108.1$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 63 | 30.2%19 W · 44 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 26c | 104.93$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.41 | 167 | 55.1%92 W · 75 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 37c | 103.87$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.18 | 218 | 54.6%119 W · 99 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 16c | 102.39$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.68 | 246 | 37.4%92 W · 154 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 28c | 101.63$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.82 | 147 | 53.7%79 W · 68 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x578d…bbaabacked No | 36c | 101.08$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.99 | 59 | 57.6%34 W · 25 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +17%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 41c | 100.04$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.27 | 343 | 54.8%188 W · 155 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5695…60e9backed Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e3…5296backed Yes | 60c | 96.8$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.8 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 38c | 93.51$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.45 | 159 | 54.1%86 W · 73 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 63c | 92.02$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.74 | 173 | 45.1%78 W · 95 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked No | 50c | 85.48$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.04 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -5.0wins | -0.18per pick | 50cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x838c…5c82backed Yes | 51c | 84.74$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.74 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 41c | 82.95$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.15 | 399 | 52.4%209 W · 190 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 26c | 82.05$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.71 | 149 | 54.4%81 W · 68 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 62c | 79$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.85 | 68 | 35.3%24 W · 44 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee25…63ccbacked No | 43c | 78.45$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.34 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4941…a2bebacked Yes | 58c | 77.05$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.06 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 49c | 77$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.22 | 108 | 37%40 W · 68 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 26c | 76.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.94 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 52c | 70.55$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.69 | 223 | 55.6%124 W · 99 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 69.97$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 112 | 30.4%34 W · 78 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 61c | 68.51$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.72 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | +5.8wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 63c | 68.18$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.23 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8547…39abbacked No | 43c | 68$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.02 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc839…bd21backed Yes | 66c | 65.79$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.3 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 44c | 64.93$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.36 | 82 | 36.6%30 W · 52 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 33c | 62.34$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.79 | 160 | 51.9%83 W · 77 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8845…360ebacked No | 44c | 60.32$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.39 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.9wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x93f7…c133backed Yes | 64c | 60.08$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.88 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 51c | 59$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.22 | 352 | 58%204 W · 148 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 52c | 56.88$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.3 | 88 | 65.9%58 W · 30 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb576…d959backed Yes | 69c | 56$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.44 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe41…9f23backed No | 44c | 55.19$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.28 | 81 | 42%34 W · 47 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…395bbacked Yes | 46c | 55$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.7 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 54c | 53.79$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.64 | 186 | 38.2%71 W · 115 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9cf…b443backed No | 38c | 53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 35cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 44c | 53$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.32 | 144 | 54.2%78 W · 66 L | -9.8wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 44c | 53$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.32 | 62 | 38.7%24 W · 38 L | -10.7wins | -0.17per pick | 56cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f2…96d7backed No | 41c | 50.35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.51 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f6…0e74backed No | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.69 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf668…e47abacked No | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -3.2wins | -0.32per pick | 42cpaid | -63%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b5…e373backed No | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 35c | 49.59$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 70c | 49.36$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.96 | 77 | 41.6%32 W · 45 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe00a…330ebacked Yes | 62c | 48.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.47 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 42c | 47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.79 | 234 | 59.8%140 W · 94 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 49c | 46.53$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.57 | 186 | 62.4%116 W · 70 L | +13.0wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 65c | 45.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.95 | 40 | 70%28 W · 12 L | +5.8wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 64c | 45$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | +4.9wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa755…6c5bbacked Yes | 52c | 44.58$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.4 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 31cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 25c | 42.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 164 | 50.6%83 W · 81 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 61c | 42.53$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.45 | 444 | 28.8%128 W · 316 L | -67.6wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x935d…82dcbacked No | 37c | 41.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.34 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 42c | 41$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.22 | 285 | 58.9%168 W · 117 L | +14.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x71c0…d674backed Yes | 65c | 40.52$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +54.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac22…363ebacked Yes | 72c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.22per pick | 41cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 311 | 52.4%163 W · 148 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8629…ce84backed No | 52c | 37.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 48c | 37.22$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 84 | 38.1%32 W · 52 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 33c | 36.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 168 | 52.4%88 W · 80 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 60c | 35.88$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.35 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 44c | 34.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.27 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on August 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on August 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on August 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on August 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on August 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.