TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on August 12?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$16,770
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$18,320

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,770 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 139 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1f66…4c8dbacked No32c1,034$333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$332.995127.5%14 W · 37 L+2.7wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes49c899.03$440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$458.72339.1%9 W · 14 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-17.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ff2…f140backed Yes55c832.63$460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$372.6223723.2%55 W · 182 L+6.9wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+42.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe40a…e4a2backed No36c694.39$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.858655.8%48 W · 38 L+0.3wins0.00per pick55cpaid-9.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes61c492.86$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.864748.9%23 W · 24 L+2.2wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x79dc…ca77backed No47c416.21$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.684615.2%7 W · 39 L-5.0wins-0.11per pick26cpaid-66.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xebdb…5ac4backed No39c400$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1564344.2%19 W · 24 L-2.0wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-8.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x80c0…c4f6backed Yes65c308.33$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.41770.6%12 W · 5 L+1.9wins+0.11per pick59cpaid+21.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x35fb…8511backed Yes62c305.44$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.015644.6%25 W · 31 L+4.5wins+0.08per pick37cpaid+16.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5fc1…647abacked Yes65c300$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.456448.4%31 W · 33 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-6.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes67c300$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9918445.7%84 W · 100 L-6.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-11%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No43c298.68$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.2527143.5%118 W · 153 L-21.4wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-24.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No36c289.85$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.1123551.9%122 W · 113 L-0.5wins0.00per pick52cpaid-12.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No52c278.32$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.2944138.1%168 W · 273 L+27.8wins+0.06per pick32cpaid+27.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xaebd…a26fbacked Yes72c253.19$182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7118342.6%78 W · 105 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-8.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes65c227.94$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$809337.6%35 W · 58 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d69…7a63backed No49c199.99$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$994443.2%19 W · 25 L-5.8wins-0.13per pick56cpaid-23.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9418…e9f8backed Yes48c186.16$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.212045%9 W · 11 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed No20c180$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.110414.4%15 W · 89 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-17.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No35c178.12$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.9640648.8%198 W · 208 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked No26c168.56$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.1414445.8%66 W · 78 L-7.3wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-19.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No29c166.03$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.2652850.8%268 W · 260 L+20.9wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-11.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No51c158.2$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8032639.3%128 W · 198 L-5.9wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b40…ced4backed No17c150.61$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.176346%29 W · 34 L+6.1wins+0.10per pick36cpaid-2.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd251…4d37backed Yes62c150$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5710043%43 W · 57 L-0.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid-6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed No51c143.99$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.4317952.5%94 W · 85 L-15.0wins-0.08per pick61cpaid-18.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed No31c134.67$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.5514553.8%78 W · 67 L+6.4wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed No36c132.61$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.3216254.3%88 W · 74 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed No35c128.95$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.9416850.6%85 W · 83 L+0.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-11.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb8e2…c595backed Yes78c128.26$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.264951%25 W · 24 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x33a2…6efbbacked Yes80c125.31$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.312100%2 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+25.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No40c122.58$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.551,31843.9%579 W · 739 L-26.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-13%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b6e…5848backed Yes57c120.4$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.43036.7%11 W · 19 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick35cpaid+64.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b46…8f13backed Yes64c115.33$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.521100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe272…ccefbacked Yes70c113.27$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.981100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x229c…b966backed No32c110.34$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.977335.6%26 W · 47 L+9.4wins+0.13per pick23cpaid+17.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x5aad…dc28backed No37c108.1$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$406330.2%19 W · 44 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick26cpaid-17.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed No26c104.93$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.4116755.1%92 W · 75 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+0.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No37c103.87$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.1821854.6%119 W · 99 L+6.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No16c102.39$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.6824637.4%92 W · 154 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-30.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3653…ef74backed No28c101.63$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.8214753.7%79 W · 68 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x578d…bbaabacked No36c101.08$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.995957.6%34 W · 25 L+3.8wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+17%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No41c100.04$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.2734354.8%188 W · 155 L-1.5wins0.00per pick55cpaid-12%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5695…60e9backed Yes49c100$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$511464.3%9 W · 5 L+1.9wins+0.13per pick51cpaid+23.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf4e3…5296backed Yes60c96.8$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.82040%8 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-13.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed No38c93.51$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.4515954.1%86 W · 73 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes63c92.02$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.7417345.1%78 W · 95 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1bbd…3bedbacked No50c85.48$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.042832.1%9 W · 19 L-5.0wins-0.18per pick50cpaid-36.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x838c…5c82backed Yes51c84.74$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.741338.5%5 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick39cpaid-13.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No41c82.95$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.1539952.4%209 W · 190 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-13.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed No26c82.05$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.7114954.4%81 W · 68 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-9.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x18ae…314cbacked Yes62c79$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.856835.3%24 W · 44 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee25…63ccbacked No43c78.45$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.342268.2%15 W · 7 L+2.7wins+0.12per pick56cpaid+16.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4941…a2bebacked Yes58c77.05$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.061546.7%7 W · 8 L+1.4wins+0.09per pick37cpaid-11.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1096…a162backed Yes49c77$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.2210837%40 W · 68 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8383…cb59backed No26c76.49$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.944841.7%20 W · 28 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No52c70.55$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.6922355.6%124 W · 99 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2e1f…8fdebacked No30c69.97$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.9911230.4%34 W · 78 L-0.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-6.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes61c68.51$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.725547.3%26 W · 29 L+5.8wins+0.11per pick37cpaid+7.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x379a…4b1abacked Yes63c68.18$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.232157.1%12 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+6.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8547…39abbacked No43c68$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.021040%4 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+59.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc839…bd21backed Yes66c65.79$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.31250%6 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-12.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes44c64.93$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.368236.6%30 W · 52 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick37cpaid+1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed No33c62.34$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.7916051.9%83 W · 77 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8845…360ebacked No44c60.32$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.391533.3%5 W · 10 L-2.9wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-48.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x93f7…c133backed Yes64c60.08$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.882751.9%14 W · 13 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No51c59$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.2235258%204 W · 148 L-4.6wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x28ea…7367backed Yes52c56.88$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.38865.9%58 W · 30 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb576…d959backed Yes69c56$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.441136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.11per pick47cpaid-36.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe41…9f23backed No44c55.19$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.288142%34 W · 47 L-3.9wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-15%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6a97…395bbacked Yes46c55$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.71225%3 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-34.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes54c53.79$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.6418638.2%71 W · 115 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc9cf…b443backed No38c53$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.21per pick35cpaid-73.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed No44c53$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.3214454.2%78 W · 66 L-9.8wins-0.07per pick61cpaid-13.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x655c…4420backed No44c53$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.326238.7%24 W · 38 L-10.7wins-0.17per pick56cpaid-29.3%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0xe8f2…96d7backed No41c50.35$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.514358.1%25 W · 18 L+3.3wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+27.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf6f6…0e74backed No33c50$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.691855.6%10 W · 8 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+2.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf668…e47abacked No44c50$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221010%1 W · 9 L-3.2wins-0.32per pick42cpaid-63%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xb0b5…e373backed No36c50$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18560%3 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.17per pick43cpaid+39.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcb32…79aabacked No35c49.59$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.55954.2%32 W · 27 L-3.8wins-0.06per pick61cpaid-14.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes70c49.36$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.967741.6%32 W · 45 L0.0wins0.00per pick42cpaid-22.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe00a…330ebacked Yes62c48.47$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.471464.3%9 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick64cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No42c47$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.7923459.8%140 W · 94 L-5.2wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked No49c46.53$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.5718662.4%116 W · 70 L+13.0wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+18.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe695…538ebacked Yes65c45.56$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.954070%28 W · 12 L+5.8wins+0.14per pick56cpaid+29.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xda91…d760backed Yes64c45$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.255646.4%26 W · 30 L+4.9wins+0.09per pick38cpaid+17.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa755…6c5bbacked Yes52c44.58$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.41618.8%3 W · 13 L-2.0wins-0.12per pick31cpaid-66.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked No25c42.9$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.8816450.6%83 W · 81 L+0.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes61c42.53$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.4544428.8%128 W · 316 L-67.6wins-0.15per pick44cpaid-51.6%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0x935d…82dcbacked No37c41.46$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.3420%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No42c41$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.2228558.9%168 W · 117 L+14.0wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x71c0…d674backed Yes65c40.52$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.281100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+54.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xac22…363ebacked Yes72c40$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.41163.6%7 W · 4 L+2.5wins+0.22per pick41cpaid+117.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No38c40$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.231152.4%163 W · 148 L-12.4wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8629…ce84backed No52c37.32$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.5410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7956…eba5backed Yes48c37.22$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.228438.1%32 W · 52 L+0.1wins0.00per pick38cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed No33c36.75$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.9716852.4%88 W · 80 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-14.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes60c35.88$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.352045%9 W · 11 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-15.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x234c…90dbbacked Yes57c35.09$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.093141.9%13 W · 18 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick38cpaid-0.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x41e6…66b7backed No44c34.73$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.272657.7%15 W · 11 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick62cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.