Commodities · resolved market
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xad14c75f2c1af1d0bcc14f9372a72530f5b3b88604120aecaa62d435bb131b61
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Upof Up, Down
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $52,868
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $57,928
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,868 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf06b…be6dbacked Down | 16c | 8,116$1,291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,290.89 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b8…0d21backed Up | 70c | 2,442$1,711 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$731.12 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdefe…17f4backed Down | 12c | 2,001$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.29 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4bf…23f6backed Up | 65c | 2,001$1,298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$703.1 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6dc…12ecbacked Down | 9c | 1,725$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.5 | 72 | 34.7%25 W · 47 L | -5.7wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xedcc…4d5ebacked Down | 13c | 1,500$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.01 | 154 | 21.4%33 W · 121 L | +8.7wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Up | 75c | 1,210$908 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.4 | 942 | 40.2%379 W · 563 L | -69.1wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4060…3ec3backed Up | 74c | 1,200$888 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312 | 292 | 64%187 W · 105 L | +47.3wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc040…beacbacked Down | 17c | 1,092$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.1 | 79 | 32.9%26 W · 53 L | +7.6wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa540…0b43backed Down | 8c | 879.73$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.18 | 1,286 | 24.2%311 W · 975 L | -58.4wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -45%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb8e…1d33backed Down | 18c | 839.88$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.98 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e93…276dbacked Down | 24c | 836.24$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad6e…9244backed Up | 80c | 815.77$651 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.42 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbada…d874backed Up | 74c | 742.68$547 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.72 | 150 | 56%84 W · 66 L | +19.8wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6955…867abacked Down | 39c | 735.44$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.08 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3657…6cd3backed Up | 67c | 661.48$443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.29 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.26per pick | 52cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf720…4599backed Up | 77c | 646.63$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.63 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Down | 21c | 600$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e13…e968backed Down | 44c | 588.64$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.12 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd5a…f7a4backed Down | 11c | 581.72$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.99 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf40f…c3bcbacked Down | 27c | 524.47$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.75 | 118 | 36.4%43 W · 75 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64a7…2133backed Up | 67c | 499.99$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6cd…55f6backed Down | 12c | 458.35$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.09 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…27b4backed Up | 79c | 301.95$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.41 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 68cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a17…8df6backed Down | 19c | 300$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Down | 29c | 281.35$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.4 | 144 | 56.3%81 W · 63 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd640…480cbacked Down | 17c | 272.61$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.96 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b5…e373backed Down | 33c | 267$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.11 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bed…bf63backed Down | 23c | 233.92$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.8 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 35cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c71…baafbacked Down | 29c | 200$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f4…43ddbacked Down | 23c | 199.78$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.6 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -41%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…3ff6backed Down | 30c | 187.85$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.36 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Down | 7c | 181.17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.68 | 390 | 34.4%134 W · 256 L | -33.8wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6be6…9539backed Up | 56c | 177.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.19 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41f3…844ebacked Up | 80c | 170$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 308 | 39%120 W · 188 L | +20.5wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf25b…82d0backed Down | 12c | 169.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 35 | 17.1%6 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Down | 7c | 155$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 1,032 | 9.3%96 W · 936 L | -24.3wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d34…cdf4backed Down | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae79…5322backed Up | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef85…51edbacked Down | 20c | 99.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9f…894fbacked Down | 24c | 89.65$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.39 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4574…f61ebacked Down | 21c | 84.65$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.66 | 42 | 26.2%11 W · 31 L | -4.4wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…ea54backed Down | 43c | 77.19$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.19 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83c3…404ebacked Up | 76c | 70.67$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.82 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a38…9ffcbacked Down | 27c | 70$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdaee…8559backed Up | 77c | 69$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.11 | 30 | 76.7%23 W · 7 L | +7.2wins | +0.24per pick | 53cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x372e…4cc7backed Up | 76c | 65$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.58 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e31…0e6ebacked Up | 71c | 63.38$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.38 | 38 | 84.2%32 W · 6 L | +4.2wins | +0.11per pick | 73cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…8ca3backed Up | 79c | 50.27$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 369 | 50.7%187 W · 182 L | +16.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x741e…9b87backed Up | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec39…50acbacked Down | 23c | 47.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d35…f929backed Up | 70c | 47.25$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.95 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.17per pick | 58cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4af…77c3backed Up | 69c | 32$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x211f…8e0fbacked Up | 80c | 27.6$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +3.7wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x06ce…0b8bbacked Up | 76c | 19.52$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.63 | 88 | 44.3%39 W · 49 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.