Commodities · resolved market
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeb6a02725e9602248294578447dfa6597950d74feb76b4e1905798fefcdfd8b1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Downof Up, Down
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $55,434
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $52,881
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,434 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Up | 32c | 5,726$1,839 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,838.75 | 938 | 40.2%377 W · 561 L | -69.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa98…90bbbacked Down | 76c | 4,892$3,721 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,171.17 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1c9…6872backed Up | 29c | 3,456$1,016 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,016.48 | 79 | 60.8%48 W · 31 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f45…a77abacked Down | 61c | 2,905$1,784 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,121.52 | 72 | 44.4%32 W · 40 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc040…beacbacked Down | 52c | 2,354$1,224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,130.08 | 79 | 32.9%26 W · 53 L | +7.6wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe286…7735backed Up | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -51%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa204…bf99backed Up | 20c | 1,810$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364 | 38 | 15.8%6 W · 32 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3657…6cd3backed Down | 69c | 1,685$1,157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$528.05 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.26per pick | 52cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Up | 1c | 1,450$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 95 | 6.3%6 W · 89 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa540…0b43backed Up | 22c | 1,392$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.68 | 1,277 | 24.3%310 W · 967 L | -58.2wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x500e…15f9backed Up | 45c | 1,036$466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$466.2 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Up | 3c | 1,022$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.58 | 1,030 | 9.2%95 W · 935 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6dc…12ecbacked Up | 38c | 1,000$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380 | 72 | 34.7%25 W · 47 L | -5.7wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Up | 47c | 1,000$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470 | 111 | 33.3%37 W · 74 L | -8.5wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -31%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb59…83f9backed Down | 51c | 909$464 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$445.41 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee5…f49abacked Up | 46c | 843$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa1…d800backed Up | 48c | 697.96$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.02 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf60e…936dbacked Up | 27c | 676$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.01 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41f3…844ebacked Up | 9c | 675.57$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.29 | 307 | 38.8%119 W · 188 L | +20.1wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf211…669bbacked Up | 45c | 653$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.85 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b8…0d21backed Down | 79c | 626$494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.9 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdfc…288cbacked Down | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe94b…5abebacked Down | 51c | 403.1$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.52 | 150 | 20.7%31 W · 119 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec09…1db9backed Up | 5c | 402.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.05 | 46 | 21.7%10 W · 36 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed Up | 48c | 400$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.5 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Down | 74c | 325.77$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.04 | 41 | 22%9 W · 32 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb427…4c62backed Down | 79c | 308.95$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.88 | 47 | 68.1%32 W · 15 L | +5.0wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf40f…c3bcbacked Down | 51c | 296.08$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.08 | 117 | 36.8%43 W · 74 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06ce…0b8bbacked Up | 16c | 280$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.15 | 88 | 44.3%39 W · 49 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4574…f61ebacked Up | 34c | 212.98$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.69 | 42 | 26.2%11 W · 31 L | -4.4wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x10e8…fdaabacked Up | 24c | 201.96$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.46 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bc8…adf7backed Up | 46c | 200$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 84 | 59.5%50 W · 34 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b5…e373backed Up | 33c | 200$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cc…015bbacked Up | 44c | 200$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9e1…0458backed Up | 15c | 155.59$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.92 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1b…1419backed Up | 46c | 150$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd15a…80dbbacked Down | 77c | 149.99$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.54 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e58…4344backed Up | 15c | 140$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x832b…3e20backed Up | 38c | 138.12$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.49 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x652e…4a94backed Up | 15c | 133$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.97 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc254…1e3bbacked Up | 18c | 105$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d66…af0dbacked Up | 48c | 101$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.48 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6aac…9603backed Down | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +58.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb20…3b5cbacked Down | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x741f…e26abacked Up | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07e0…1db9backed Down | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -30%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb903…c263backed Up | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01ea…464cbacked Up | 16c | 97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.4wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x840e…b9edbacked Up | 48c | 91$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.68 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb7cb…83a5backed Up | 15c | 90.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21dd…0b83backed Up | 15c | 89.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11e7…f559backed Down | 63c | 71.79$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.56 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e31…0e6ebacked Down | 72c | 41.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 38 | 84.2%32 W · 6 L | +4.2wins | +0.11per pick | 73cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x22f1…6415backed Down | 80c | 35$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 118 | 38.1%45 W · 73 L | -10.6wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe105…185bbacked Down | 80c | 28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +3.0wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.