Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on August 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaffe49308eeede9f3dade78a09f8577f901b559a99968145ac2ec9c815c36bda
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,184
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,474
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,184 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 41c | 397$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.89 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 47c | 338.5$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.15 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 42c | 300$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.08 | 439 | 32.8%144 W · 295 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…1870backed No | 50c | 287.2$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.6 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…0020backed Yes | 49c | 202.63$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.67 | 389 | 30.3%118 W · 271 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 56c | 197$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.89 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 19c | 192.89$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.46 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x268f…bbd7backed Yes | 47c | 191.71$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.97 | 99 | 38.4%38 W · 61 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25e5…96bdbacked No | 55c | 182.09$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 40c | 173.94$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.53 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 55c | 168$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.76 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e70…bb75backed No | 51c | 146.71$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.67 | 74 | 44.6%33 W · 41 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +19%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed No | 17c | 145$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 388 | 30.2%117 W · 271 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 54c | 110.5$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.18 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 17c | 105.86$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.81 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 50c | 102.68$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.34 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 54c | 101.97$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.78 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ea6…180dbacked Yes | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1546…778bbacked No | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 354 | 29.9%106 W · 248 L | -17.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c3a…8792backed Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 180 | 45.6%82 W · 98 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 19c | 98.95$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf828…5ca4backed Yes | 48c | 95$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.4 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -4.2wins | -0.18per pick | 44cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 49c | 93.55$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.71 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x532b…ccccbacked Yes | 71c | 92.31$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.63 | 81 | 76.5%62 W · 19 L | +11.7wins | +0.14per pick | 62cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 44c | 90$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.3 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 41c | 83.76$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.66 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 59c | 83$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.97 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes | 45c | 80.8$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.44 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe763…649abacked Yes | 45c | 80$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.16per pick | 38cpaid | +54.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 47c | 74.22$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.25 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…a32abacked Yes | 67c | 73.31$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.31 | 216 | 33.8%73 W · 143 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 36c | 69.59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.36 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…8fa3backed Yes | 31c | 67.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.56 | 393 | 46.6%183 W · 210 L | +29.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 45c | 66.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.67 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 50c | 63$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 58c | 61.26$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.62 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 55c | 61$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.82 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf4…f4c3backed Yes | 45c | 60$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 116 | 26.7%31 W · 85 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda07…62a0backed No | 50c | 57.44$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.72 | 201 | 33.3%67 W · 134 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…497dbacked Yes | 46c | 50.6$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.55 | 349 | 35.2%123 W · 226 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 50c | 46$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.15 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 64c | 45.83$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.23 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 42c | 45.2$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.01 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 54c | 42.59$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.17 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a16…6004backed Yes | 78c | 40.04$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.72 | 33 | 69.7%23 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 55c | 40.02$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.02 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc5…33d3backed Yes | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 98 | 57.1%56 W · 42 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe037…8a91backed No | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 178 | 41.6%74 W · 104 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 55c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.06 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb699…4e20backed No | 57c | 35.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.14 | 213 | 52.1%111 W · 102 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked No | 58c | 31.88$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.46 | 375 | 41.6%156 W · 219 L | -52.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 57c | 31$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf27…f35fbacked Yes | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 153 | 47.1%72 W · 81 L | -8.6wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 57c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 59c | 25.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b5…e373backed Yes | 43c | 23.55$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.42 | 151 | 28.5%43 W · 108 L | -12.7wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe26b…16e6backed No | 52c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4bf…a1bdbacked Yes | 47c | 21.38$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.33 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 55c | 20.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked No | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75fd…7265backed Yes | 79c | 15.17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.16 | 13 | 92.3%12 W · 1 L | +3.0wins | +0.23per pick | 69cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on August 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on August 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on August 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 38°C on August 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 39°C on August 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.