Commodities · resolved market
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5be4491cf3562a2318be46f49bb21e39f6fe1d424a173836b93da856c8d5694f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Downof Up, Down
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $138,265
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $149,258
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $138,265 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 85 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa53c…67a5backed Up | 3c | 9,000$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4060…3ec3backed Down | 62c | 8,400$5,215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,185.22 | 292 | 64%187 W · 105 L | +47.3wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x264c…bacabacked Up | 54c | 6,092$3,302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,302.1 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc786…f62ebacked Up | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Down | 79c | 4,948$3,910 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,038.53 | 930 | 40.3%375 W · 555 L | -67.5wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8233…df36backed Up | 49c | 3,620$1,791 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,791.13 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Up | 4c | 3,257$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.88 | 93 | 2.2%2 W · 91 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -86%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee25…7cd3backed Up | 13c | 2,774$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.63 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c97…4569backed Up | 19c | 2,636$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.94 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1052…625ebacked Up | 47c | 2,231$1,048 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,048.42 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -57%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5082…049dbacked Up | 50c | 2,029$1,019 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,019.34 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +4.8wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x64ba…b7bfbacked Down | 46c | 1,884$867 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,017.57 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa540…0b43backed Up | 20c | 1,737$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.65 | 1,265 | 24.5%310 W · 955 L | -56.9wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe94b…5abebacked Up | 4c | 1,598$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.2 | 150 | 20.7%31 W · 119 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9c7…147abacked Up | 56c | 1,336$748 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$747.85 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x629b…b236backed Up | 44c | 1,260$558 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$558.22 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +118.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bc2…597abacked Up | 32c | 1,078$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.83 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 25cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…742dbacked Up | 28c | 1,000$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1c9…6872backed Up | 46c | 955.9$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$439.71 | 79 | 60.8%48 W · 31 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc31a…94f7backed Up | 31c | 900$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12bf…ddafbacked Up | 12c | 814.74$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.42 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28b9…396abacked Up | 4c | 697.72$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.87 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb34b…5d0ebacked Up | 26c | 601.14$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.07 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -39%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82e0…bcfdbacked Up | 48c | 589.57$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.77 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x404d…e6d3backed Up | 2c | 573.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff93…1239backed Up | 43c | 548.5$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.86 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e4f…4594backed Up | 30c | 529.3$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.54 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -47%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64da…fc36backed Down | 48c | 520.83$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.83 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.21per pick | 61cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe157…51ebbacked Up | 6c | 507.79$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.54 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe105…185bbacked Up | 31c | 500$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +3.0wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa74…d98bbacked Up | 43c | 464.83$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc74…4035backed Up | 42c | 453.18$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.81 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1460…e459backed Up | 53c | 452.83$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 26cpaid | -69.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ee4…d6c3backed Up | 51c | 431$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.81 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd046…8c29backed Up | 8c | 412.61$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedf3…02d2backed Down | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2236…6e0cbacked Up | 49c | 384.73$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.91 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ece…a2e9backed Up | 13c | 371.46$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.29 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -53%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75ce…ffd8backed Up | 4c | 362.55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked Up | 4c | 357.35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 42 | 14.3%6 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -53%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x162e…fe52backed Up | 53c | 345$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.85 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -4.5wins | -0.34per pick | 65cpaid | -56%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xaa98…90bbbacked Up | 19c | 340.92$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.28 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Up | 28c | 324.39$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.08 | 67 | 10.4%7 W · 60 L | -7.1wins | -0.11per pick | 21cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1bc2…e51bbacked Up | 4c | 303$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cd…9a4cbacked Up | 50c | 300$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41f3…844ebacked Down | 50c | 281.05$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.6 | 304 | 38.8%118 W · 186 L | +20.0wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1896…0f63backed Up | 55c | 202.08$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5575…bfb7backed Down | 45c | 202$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +124.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf94f…393dbacked Up | 49c | 200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb77d…20e1backed Down | 49c | 200$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b5…e373backed Up | 58c | 200$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x907c…23c1backed Up | 52c | 200$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 78 | 38.5%30 W · 48 L | -8.0wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2396…cdc6backed Up | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85e3…5906backed Up | 58c | 200$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b15…7bf8backed Down | 48c | 200$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe41e…5aa1backed Up | 8c | 189.12$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd88…4037backed Down | 47c | 152.08$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.6 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -4.3wins | -0.16per pick | 53cpaid | -42%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4528…24dcbacked Down | 68c | 146.44$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.19 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +3.0wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5074…fcddbacked Up | 46c | 144$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.64 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Up | 11c | 124.47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.69 | 95 | 6.3%6 W · 89 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a7a…2233backed Up | 21c | 121$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.41 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59d4…b745backed Up | 23c | 103.57$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.04 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e71…be4cbacked Down | 47c | 100.02$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.01 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +3.3wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +31%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x933c…a8c6backed Up | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 59 | 28.8%17 W · 42 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8eb…87c8backed Up | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf37…8b49backed Up | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 69 | 37.7%26 W · 43 L | -6.5wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +289%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Down | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x649f…fd8dbacked Up | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -44%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf60e…936dbacked Down | 51c | 99.99$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43a1…697dbacked Up | 45c | 95$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.75 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc35e…9f4cbacked Up | 53c | 87.92$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd834…e011backed Up | 33c | 69.72$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.96 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -4.7wins | -0.29per pick | 48cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2cbb…ba2bbacked Down | 48c | 62.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6dc…12ecbacked Up | 50c | 61$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 72 | 34.7%25 W · 47 L | -5.7wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4873…b9c2backed Up | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49f4…a7c9backed Up | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x809f…b1c0backed Down | 49c | 46.91$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.78 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +107.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdc32…0f96backed Down | 65c | 43.23$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe04a…5377backed Down | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x028d…feccbacked Up | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x396e…c3a7backed Up | 42c | 31.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c94…5b86backed Up | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 36cpaid | -49%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb684…343cbacked Down | 66c | 29.73$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4077…01abbacked Up | 51c | 28.08$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8891…43a6backed Up | 48c | 22.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.